99 Comments
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ira lechner's avatar

Trump isn’t smart enough to figure all this out! He just wants to prove he is boss and all the Arab states have to kiss his ass? He doesn’t understand that direct war with a nation of 92 Million people and led by hardline clerics who hate Israel is not going to surrender ever! So an air war is not winnable on the ground! His Republican minders in and out of Congress know he can’t win a ground war of this size and not get impeached next January so who the hell knows how he will get out of this? Except declare victory next week and walk away!

Richard Burger's avatar

Trump has brilliant instincts as a politician and salesman. He scores 0 on a sccale of 1 to 10 in his analytic thinking. He's actually a very dumb guy when it comes to complex planning. Nothing in this set of theories rings true.

NotHereToPost's avatar

Woah woah woah let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Impulsively acting and speaking without any regard for 2nd or 3rd order repercussions is hardly worthy of being framed as brilliant instincts.

This guy just appealed to the low intelligence masses for his lack of filter, the financially incentivized for obvious reasons, and above all, the billionaire elite due to how easily bribed and moldable he is.

But aside from the phrasing there I fully agree with you both. There are no layers of secret intelligence within some facade. Trump just got bribed and hyped into entering this war. Overwhelmingly by Netanyahu et al. I’m sure they all told him that Iran wouldn’t dare close the Strait. Though I’m also certain that the actually military officials also told him this was a bad idea and unwinnable via air campaign… so I guess the Saudi and Israeli money spoke louder than logic. Not to mention whatever the Israeli intelligence agency has on Trump from the Epstein files.

Stormzeye's avatar

Trump has already achieved his initial objective of dominating Iran in every way but politically.

He has destroyed the IRGC's ability to influence the outcome of events in the region as he subjects them to nothing but ridicule throughout the world. In doing so he has also succeeded in diminishing the threat of Communist China's and Russia's defensive and offensive military hardware as well as their command and control mechanisms.

As for Trump's mental acuity, he certainly has sufficient brain power and animal instincts to dominate his opponents whether foreign or domestic.

Given the limited time available to him he has created a new world order based upon free and fair trade backed up by the strongest, most experienced and most lethal military the world has ever seen.

Kria k's avatar

While I don’t agree with the understatement of Trump and his regime’s intelligence and analytical capacity, your resort to the neocon lingo of the past to justify a moral high ground for the Trump regime/administration (whatever people want to call it) nevertheless shows your detachment from reality. Wake up, the world no longer believes in the crap about how righteous the U.S. and its allies are.

Rock_M's avatar

I personally find Trump's blunt realpolitik rather refreshing. He may trying to serve us a plate full of bullshit, but he's not trying to con us into believing it's our moral obligation to eat it.

Sajjad's avatar

Understanding the people is a large aspect that the US has not considered, while there’s a sizeable number of Iranians that are living there who wish for the removal of the regime; there’s not enough to have a transfer of power. The regime has by far a larger percentage of the population who support them especially when they were attacked first, which gave the IRGC legitimacy of self defence instead of initiating an offensive action of their own. For a population to see its own country bombed regardless of the ruling party, they have seen what comes of it (Iraq and Libya) which are to this day; still dealing with the US intervention. Furthermore the support of Iran’s governance through its backing of the Palestinian resistance has given them a global reputation of standing against the western powers that wish to rule their region.

Without a popular uprising, there’s no instance of the removal of the IRGC and Islamic regime as Irans defensive strategy has always been to inflict enough damage for a sustained period of time that makes the enemy hurt economically; rendering the operation too costly.

David A Bennett's avatar

So, he didn't establish the Abraham accords? He didn't give a speech in Saudi Arabia that indicates that he either makes a deal with Iran or forces them to give up their proxies? He didn't just watch a large number of Iranians put their lives on the line because they have had it with this crap. It's not a nation of 92 million that wants to die for the mullahs. You just have TDS.

scmcn's avatar

Your take says a lot more about your flaws and envy for a man who seeks to build relations & businesses. Quite successfully I would add.

Rock_M's avatar

Is there an argument or a position in there somewhere? What's your plan?

V. Sidney's avatar

Elbridge Colby.

User's avatar
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Mar 9
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David's avatar

So, in your simplistic view of the world, it’s the Jews fault. Where have I heard this before?

Micah Micah Micah's avatar

This is a great piece and thinking, and I hope it's true that America will be less involved in the Middle East after this war. But I think the main issue I have with this is the lack of psychological analysis. This is brilliant international relations analysis, but Donald has severe ADHD and pathological narcissism: it completely clouds his mind.

Trump doesn't have beliefs (except for beliefs he's had since the 80s like tariffs). Trump has dispositions. And one of his narcissistic dispositions is that he is constantly looking for narcissistic supply. And he gets those through the media and his name in headlines, but also through other people. He humiliated Zelensky in the White House because of his narcissism. There wasn't analytical thinking behind it.

Trump's international relations analysis is based on the person, their power, and the size of their country. Putin has a deft psychological hold on him because Trump sees how powerful Putin is, how many missiles they have, and how big Russia is on a map. And Putin knows when to flatter and when to be cold. And likewise, so does Bibi.

Maybe some sections of the Pentagon think like this piece, but does Pete Hegseth? I think a large part of this war is because of Bibi's influence on Trump. I don't believe Donald has thought anywhere close to this level you are.

Edit: @Vlad Vexler summed it up well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6fvHOOFYbw

MHeff's avatar

I’m not a fan of Trump, but this is an incredibly narrow view blinded by ingrained biases that have been disproven. Anytime someone starts talking about Trump’s love for Putin, it’s a signal they have shed any remaining vestige of objectivity and simply kowtow to a group think narrative fed to them by 20-year old analysts at CNN. If Trump loved Putin so much why is he seizing Russian tankers and positioning NATO to be a greater deterrent force? Moreover, it’s easy to be dismissive of the administration’s intentions because it requires less thought than knee jerk dismissal. But one should wonder looking at the combined impact of the Venezuela and Iran operations, whether or not you’re being fooled by the administration in the very way it intends? Of course, you’ll never be able to answer that objectively because you’re too sure that Trump is what you think he is.

LStrong's avatar

What Russian tankers has Trump seized? I’m not aware of any. The few tankers that have been seized were shadow vessels owned by third parties, primarily registered in third world countries. When the US was on the brink of seizing one Russia tried to claim that it had been reregistered to Russia. Nice try.

Steven's avatar

You might have missed it, but the Trump administration actually seized the Marinera in January. It was a Russian-flagged vessel, and Moscow was furious, calling it 'piracy.' It's a perfect example of what you mentioned—they tried to slap a Russian flag on it mid-chase to get protection, but the U.S. ignored the move and boarded it anyway

LStrong's avatar

Thank you for this excellent analysis. I disagree on one point. Trump has one firm belief. That is that he, his family and his wealthy friends should be able to profit mightily from any available opportunity that presents itself. He sees vast real estate opportunities along many Middle Eastern coastlines and perceives Iran as being in the way of these opportunities.

Teddy R's avatar

No dude. I just don’t respect sanctimony

Teddy R's avatar

Trump derangement syndrome strikes again. This isn’t an analysis just a character assassination ‘supported’ if that’s a word that I can use in this context by a string of negative interpretations but not one single fact. What really annoys me about this kind of virtue signalling soft soap is that it conflates likeability and middle class decorum with getting shit done.

calicalicali's avatar

has this author ever heard trump say anything remotely along these lines? this is reverse engineering of a foolish whim. attributing this degree of careful consideration to a man who thinks windmills are evil...ugh

ymg's avatar

Impressive analysis. And you managed to write an article that did not malign either side. That's even more impressive.

Marc Svetov's avatar

You’re becoming my go-to person to understand Middle East matters, along with Lee Smith … you’re doing great work, Zineb!

Richard Burger's avatar

"Trump’s own broader Middle East strategy carries ambitions that go well beyond security"

Link please?

I'm reading a complex, jargon-laden set of supposed plans that reflect thinking inside Trump's head. None of this is evident in Trump's own sweeping, sometimes contradictory speeches and statements. What is the basis of these theories? If it is actions, please identify the actions that support each of the statements.

Roger's avatar

Agreed. Giving Trump credit for some grand strategy is nonsense. To come out looking as good as this article lays out requires the luck of Inspector Clouseau.

Nicholas Fry's avatar

The IMEC is a real project, which the US signed up to under Biden. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed at the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September 2023. Progress since then has no doubt been minimal because of the Hamas invasion of Israel a month later. The EU is a signatory and Greece is a strong supporter as the port of Piraeus would be a major hub in the chain. See imec.international.

Bill Darrow's avatar

An interesting and compelling analysis. It's amusing how many comments protest, "Trump is too dumb and impulsive to grasp the points you describe!" Dumb like a fox. It appears, given the Administration's recent work with Gaza and Venezuela (and now Iran), that either (1) he's not as dumb as his chorus of critics insist, or (2) like many presidents he has smart and capable people assisting, analyzing circumstances and executing broad directives. Or both (1) and (2). As evidenced by this piece, intelligent scholars also can analyze and explain geopolitical logic.

John W Burns's avatar

Finally a sane comment.

The TDS crowd has their beliefs and they aren't giving them up for anything. Eventually they'll eat crow.

jeff fultz's avatar

Interesting, will be wild seeing how this plays out. You definitely will get the ones with TDS Trump Derangement Syndrome out in force here! lol

Oh and the bots and AI Agents.

Lee J Ellis's avatar

It’s insane…almost every response is something along the lines of “This is great, but Trump (insert insane rant/armchair psych diagnosis/etc.) so there’s no way he’ll do it.”

Like, it’s impossible for some people to give the guy any credit at all, they are so certain that their read on the guy is correct. They can’t even fathom that, maybe, they misread the guy.

Micah Micah Micah's avatar

Well to me, I’m using the last decade as proof. Trump has rarely showed higher order thinking and planning. He usually finds himself boasting about all the success we’re going to have, and then getting distracted on something else. He said he was going to get the Ukraine war solved day 1, yet reality has shown us that he’s continuously floundered in negotiations. We invited Putin to Alaska for what? Trump still thinks Putin is in Ukraine for naked self-gain. Trump understands power, but only a mafioso power.

Outside of sales and self promotion during elections, he’s no Jack Kennedy. Imagine him in the Cuban missile crisis. We’d probably all be dead

Julian Baum's avatar

This speculation about a major re-alignment in the Middle East that better suits US interests and frees it to manage other global security concerns suggests a hopeful outcome for this administration's chaotic and impulsive actions. But the strategic intent seems to be only in the author's imagination. There's little to no evidence of a grand strategy or thoughtful management from the Trump foreign policy actions. Instead there's been a bundle of contradictory statements and reckless decisions that lurch from one opportunistic objective to another and with long-term consequences but no informed

intentionality as the author suggests.

Carl W Tope's avatar

Chaos is part of Trumps strategy, he's been both lucky and highly successful leveraging chaos but I doubt his luck will hold for 4 years...

steve crane's avatar

Trump cannot count on 4 years and he knows it very well. This is why he is hurrying to make irreversible changes before the mid terms risk tying his hands again.

Carl W Tope's avatar

Trouble is Johnson hasn’t been doing much to get anything through the house that would codify any of the executive orders so it’s all written in sand at this point.

John Hardman's avatar

All of this ignores the fact that China's Belt and Road Initiative also plans a trade route through Iran and Iraq on the way to Turkey. China is way ahead of the West on this project and now has better relations with the nations involved. China also had the advantage of no colonial history in the Middle East and a tolerance for illiberal governments.

While the U.S. and Israel lash about like a bull in a china shop, Beijing can step in as a moderator and gain prestige in the region. China has a long-term stake in the region's future and will provide a stable platform for broad geopolitical and economic revisions. It is also able to lead the region into a Pax Silica on par with anything from the West. Trump is playing checkers again, while Xi is involved in elaborate moves of 3D chess. https://substack.com/home/post/p-190125011

Carl W Tope's avatar

Can China play chess without oil?

John Hardman's avatar

Why do you think they have been propping up Russia? Check and mate…

Carl W Tope's avatar

I have no idea what you’re trying to say there, please clarify.

John Hardman's avatar

Until now, China has been judicious in purchasing Russian oil to avoid angering the U.S. and EU over flagrant violations of their sanctions. Recently, the U.S. permitted India to "temporarily" purchase Russian oil in an attempt to stem the rise of global oil prices. This "bending" of the Russian sanctions opens the floodgates for China to purchase more Russian oil to make up for the lack of Mideast supplies.

You also have to remember that China is the leader in the production of renewable energy and EV transportation. China is preparing for the shift away from fossil fuels. The U.S. is woefully behind in accepting this reality, and our citizens will not suffer quietly.

Also, this windfall of oil revenues to Russia will be funneled into weapon production by Russia against Ukraine, prolonging that war and its strain on the EU economy. I am predicting the next "regime change" to happen in the U.S.

Rock_M's avatar

You sound like you'd like it best if your own country were the loser. Can't fathom it.

John Hardman's avatar

Hmmm, this isn’t a video game or a sporting event, this is an ill conceived war of choice with broad geopolitical consequences. This is Trump’s war. He never consulted Congress or explained the decision to the nation. Yes, the U.S. will definitely lose even if the fight with Iran goes well. We have lost the trust of our allies both in Europe and the Middle East. We are becoming a pariah nation allied with Israel who is also a pariah nation with a leader charged with war crimes. I am simply calling them as I see them and my opinion won’t change the outcome.

I have been around through a lot of U.S. losses in my lifetime. My father served in Korea which ended in a humiliating ceasefire. I served during the Vietnam War which was a resounding loss not to be denied. My grandson, currently in the military, has served in both Iraq and Afghanistan, neither of which could be called a “win.” I pray he doesn’t get sucked into this Iran SNAFU Trump has created. “Are we winning yet?” Negative that…

Rock_M's avatar

Calling them as you feel them, rather. This is all emotion and assertion.

Artemis's avatar

It's unfortunate how many people assume this theory is an endorsement of Trump's actions or that Trump himself is orchestrating the strategy.

Cubicle Farmer's avatar

There is no way Trump's thinking goes anywhere near this deep

Rock_M's avatar

The Republicans and Israelis have been thinking about it since the Obama administration.

Claude Demers's avatar

Fascinating analysis — but it can’t be Trump’s game plan because he is, simply put, an imbecilic buffoon. And no one within his sycophantic shit-for-brains entourage can strategize at that level.

JasonT's avatar

Interesting thesis, and one I think makes broad sense. Lots of risk and uncertainty, but no one has had the courage to attempt anything in 30 years, so credit to him for that.

Joe Freiberger's avatar

The whole basis for this article is that President Trump cannot tell us the real reason for attacking Iran because it will give away his strategy. But this author knows what he is thinking.

At what point do we let President Trump speak for himself? I'm tired of President Trump "Works in mysterious ways" and that someone else needs to interpret him.

John W Burns's avatar

How about we get the world to work as you need it to work in order to understand? We'll dumb it down, make it very direct and easy to understand. Take away all complexity, nuance, politics and all non-linear thinking.

Think you're can handle it then?

Richard Steveni's avatar

All of the above is likely true, but for the fact the article never mentioned China once. It's all about China, as was Venezuela. The rabid fanatical Islamists were just too full of hatred to see they were offering Trump the excuse he needed on a platter. The benefits you list here, not insubstantial, are secondary.

Tazzy.'s avatar

Yes , ultimately it is all about China and the BRICS.