Trump isn’t smart enough to figure all this out! He just wants to prove he is boss and all the Arab states have to kiss his ass? He doesn’t understand that direct war with a nation of 92 Million people and led by hardline clerics who hate Israel is not going to surrender ever! So an air war is not winnable on the ground! His Republican minders in and out of Congress know he can’t win a ground war of this size and not get impeached next January so who the hell knows how he will get out of this? Except declare victory next week and walk away!
Trump has brilliant instincts as a politician and salesman. He scores 0 on a sccale of 1 to 10 in his analytic thinking. He's actually a very dumb guy when it comes to complex planning. Nothing in this set of theories rings true.
has this author ever heard trump say anything remotely along these lines? this is reverse engineering of a foolish whim. attributing this degree of careful consideration to a man who thinks windmills are evil...ugh
Fascinating analysis — but it can’t be Trump’s game plan because he is, simply put, an imbecilic buffoon. And no one within his sycophantic shit-for-brains entourage can strategize at that level.
This is a great piece and thinking, and I hope it's true that America will be less involved in the Middle East after this war. But I think the main issue I have with this is the lack of psychological analysis. This is brilliant international relations analysis, but Donald has severe ADHD and pathological narcissism: it completely clouds his mind.
Trump doesn't have beliefs (except for beliefs he's had since the 80s like tariffs). Trump has dispositions. And one of his narcissistic dispositions is that he is constantly looking for narcissistic supply. And he gets those through the media and his name in headlines, but also through other people. He humiliated Zelensky in the White House because of his narcissism. There wasn't analytical thinking behind it.
Trump's international relations analysis is based on the person, their power, and the size of their country. Putin has a deft psychological hold on him because Trump sees how powerful Putin is, how many missiles they have, and how big Russia is on a map. And Putin knows when to flatter and when to be cold. And likewise, so does Bibi.
Maybe some sections of the Pentagon think like this piece, but does Pete Hegseth? I think a large part of this war is because of Bibi's influence on Trump. I don't believe Donald has thought anywhere close to this level you are.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. I disagree on one point. Trump has one firm belief. That is that he, his family and his wealthy friends should be able to profit mightily from any available opportunity that presents itself. He sees vast real estate opportunities along many Middle Eastern coastlines and perceives Iran as being in the way of these opportunities.
This speculation about a major re-alignment in the Middle East that better suits US interests and frees it to manage other global security concerns suggests a hopeful outcome for this administration's chaotic and impulsive actions. But the strategic intent seems to be only in the author's imagination. There's little to no evidence of a grand strategy or thoughtful management from the Trump foreign policy actions. Instead there's been a bundle of contradictory statements and reckless decisions that lurch from one opportunistic objective to another and with long-term consequences but no informed
"Trump’s own broader Middle East strategy carries ambitions that go well beyond security"
Link please?
I'm reading a complex, jargon-laden set of supposed plans that reflect thinking inside Trump's head. None of this is evident in Trump's own sweeping, sometimes contradictory speeches and statements. What is the basis of these theories? If it is actions, please identify the actions that support each of the statements.
All of this ignores the fact that China's Belt and Road Initiative also plans a trade route through Iran and Iraq on the way to Turkey. China is way ahead of the West on this project and now has better relations with the nations involved. China also had the advantage of no colonial history in the Middle East and a tolerance for illiberal governments.
While the U.S. and Israel lash about like a bull in a china shop, Beijing can step in as a moderator and gain prestige in the region. China has a long-term stake in the region's future and will provide a stable platform for broad geopolitical and economic revisions. It is also able to lead the region into a Pax Silica on par with anything from the West. Trump is playing checkers again, while Xi is involved in elaborate moves of 3D chess. https://substack.com/home/post/p-190125011
Nice job trying to bring focus to the chaos that is Trumps actions on virtually every subject. In this particular instance the results of this roll of the dice will be much faster than most others Trump has made.
Trump isn’t smart enough to figure all this out! He just wants to prove he is boss and all the Arab states have to kiss his ass? He doesn’t understand that direct war with a nation of 92 Million people and led by hardline clerics who hate Israel is not going to surrender ever! So an air war is not winnable on the ground! His Republican minders in and out of Congress know he can’t win a ground war of this size and not get impeached next January so who the hell knows how he will get out of this? Except declare victory next week and walk away!
Trump has brilliant instincts as a politician and salesman. He scores 0 on a sccale of 1 to 10 in his analytic thinking. He's actually a very dumb guy when it comes to complex planning. Nothing in this set of theories rings true.
Interesting, will be wild seeing how this plays out. You definitely will get the ones with TDS Trump Derangement Syndrome out in force here! lol
Oh and the bots and AI Agents.
Impressive analysis. And you managed to write an article that did not malign either side. That's even more impressive.
You’re becoming my go-to person to understand Middle East matters, along with Lee Smith … you’re doing great work, Zineb!
has this author ever heard trump say anything remotely along these lines? this is reverse engineering of a foolish whim. attributing this degree of careful consideration to a man who thinks windmills are evil...ugh
Fascinating analysis — but it can’t be Trump’s game plan because he is, simply put, an imbecilic buffoon. And no one within his sycophantic shit-for-brains entourage can strategize at that level.
This is a great piece and thinking, and I hope it's true that America will be less involved in the Middle East after this war. But I think the main issue I have with this is the lack of psychological analysis. This is brilliant international relations analysis, but Donald has severe ADHD and pathological narcissism: it completely clouds his mind.
Trump doesn't have beliefs (except for beliefs he's had since the 80s like tariffs). Trump has dispositions. And one of his narcissistic dispositions is that he is constantly looking for narcissistic supply. And he gets those through the media and his name in headlines, but also through other people. He humiliated Zelensky in the White House because of his narcissism. There wasn't analytical thinking behind it.
Trump's international relations analysis is based on the person, their power, and the size of their country. Putin has a deft psychological hold on him because Trump sees how powerful Putin is, how many missiles they have, and how big Russia is on a map. And Putin knows when to flatter and when to be cold. And likewise, so does Bibi.
Maybe some sections of the Pentagon think like this piece, but does Pete Hegseth? I think a large part of this war is because of Bibi's influence on Trump. I don't believe Donald has thought anywhere close to this level you are.
Thank you for this excellent analysis. I disagree on one point. Trump has one firm belief. That is that he, his family and his wealthy friends should be able to profit mightily from any available opportunity that presents itself. He sees vast real estate opportunities along many Middle Eastern coastlines and perceives Iran as being in the way of these opportunities.
This speculation about a major re-alignment in the Middle East that better suits US interests and frees it to manage other global security concerns suggests a hopeful outcome for this administration's chaotic and impulsive actions. But the strategic intent seems to be only in the author's imagination. There's little to no evidence of a grand strategy or thoughtful management from the Trump foreign policy actions. Instead there's been a bundle of contradictory statements and reckless decisions that lurch from one opportunistic objective to another and with long-term consequences but no informed
intentionality as the author suggests.
Chaos is part of Trumps strategy, he's been both lucky and highly successful leveraging chaos but I doubt his luck will hold for 4 years...
"Trump’s own broader Middle East strategy carries ambitions that go well beyond security"
Link please?
I'm reading a complex, jargon-laden set of supposed plans that reflect thinking inside Trump's head. None of this is evident in Trump's own sweeping, sometimes contradictory speeches and statements. What is the basis of these theories? If it is actions, please identify the actions that support each of the statements.
https://www.zinebriboua.com/p/the-iran-question-is-all-about-china
All of this ignores the fact that China's Belt and Road Initiative also plans a trade route through Iran and Iraq on the way to Turkey. China is way ahead of the West on this project and now has better relations with the nations involved. China also had the advantage of no colonial history in the Middle East and a tolerance for illiberal governments.
While the U.S. and Israel lash about like a bull in a china shop, Beijing can step in as a moderator and gain prestige in the region. China has a long-term stake in the region's future and will provide a stable platform for broad geopolitical and economic revisions. It is also able to lead the region into a Pax Silica on par with anything from the West. Trump is playing checkers again, while Xi is involved in elaborate moves of 3D chess. https://substack.com/home/post/p-190125011
Can China play chess without oil?
Excellent piece setting out the board. Now to find out if it will work.
Nice job trying to bring focus to the chaos that is Trumps actions on virtually every subject. In this particular instance the results of this roll of the dice will be much faster than most others Trump has made.
Excellent summary
https://paulokirk.substack.com/p/every-child-in-gaza-is-the-enemy
Res ipsa loquitur
tldr. America is over