Oil from the Western Hemisphere will jump when Venezuela's oil industry recovers, with massive US help.
In the 1980s Venezuela produced 3m bbd, much more than Iran's 2m bbd. Once this production is restored, the reduction in oil prices will compensate China for the discounts it got on sanctioned Iranian oil, without the risk of US sanctions.
I have to wonder if it’s even theoretically possible for Riboua to read anything in the news that in her mind isn’t another reason to endorse Trump’s disastrous decision to go to war.
At least two Gulf countries, UAE and Bahrein, disagree with you, openly. We don't know how many do that quietly. They know that if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it would have the entire region by their throats.
A classified document stated Iran could have sent a nuclear warhead to the US in a matter of weeks. Your past president Obama, if he could have stopped the World trade center’s destruction by invading, would you have been against that? And do you not care about the attacks on US military and civilians?? Every 3 days on average they kill an American. Your ok with that?? Please- explain!
“ classified document stated” — that’s all it takes in your mind to start a war? No congressional approval as required by the constitution? No attempt to persuade the public? Just draft a document saying what you want it to say and call it classified? And even if the document was right (highly doubtful) the result of this misadventure has only been to make the Iranians double down and race faster to get nukes, because now they have nothing to lose.
Lots of documents stated Iraq was also on the verge of getting nukes. They were wrong.
Well I could have addressed the military and civilian deaths at the Hands of IRGC attacks. They kill somebody on the average of every 3 day. They chant ) Death to America) Dayly. I guess intentional attacks don’t count?? Maybe I misjudged you??
Based on conservative estimates and using your three deaths per day as a benchmark, the war in Iran in two months killed about as many people as the IRCG was killing in nine years. You’re making a good argument for why the Iranian regime is bad (I agree they are) but not even addressing whether the war is a good idea.
Lots of regimes are bad. The Sudanese have murdered thousands. The Chinese destroyed Tibet and have committed genocide in Xinjiang. Russia’s crimes are infamous. Each of the above amount to well over three deaths per day. So do. we go to war against all of them?
Btw the US is murdering a few Venezuelan boaters per day under the pretext of the drug war. Should we go to war with ourselves?
Thank you I misread that statistic. Of course it only further supports my position as the war would thus account for 30+ years of killing at Iran’s average rate.
Very good. Interesting analysis. Iran and the United States both overestimated their ability to influence the patterns of events. Iran trusted in global oil shock that didn’t happen and the US thought of a swift operation leading to regime change and all that.
As for Beijing Summit, it was all about trade and economics. No breakthrough on any major political and strategic issues. Though Taiwan has always been a focal topic between the two countries.
A complete misread. Xi was making a sly dog at Trump blockading the strait of Hormuz. The China visit was a humiliation for both Trump and America, and the world saw that America can be publicly mocked
My village is called Vienna, capitol of Austria and second headquarters of The UN, after NY. Muslims make up more than 10% of the cities population. Great grocery stores, and they do my hair.
This trip was just politics. Trump and Co. looking like they are trying to talk intelligently with China for the stage.
But it's all BS. This administration finally understands, finally, one cannot deal with communists, they lie. This is Asia, they will talk out of both sides of their mouth (especially communists), it's called politeness and manners. We call it two-faced. Whichever side you want to believe but just understand how the game is played. Communists are monopolists. Their goal is to monopolize everything. Much different than capitalist monopolists who just game the business side of it for profits. True libertarian capitalists want to have moats, monopiles. Communists want the same except for EVERYTHING. See CCP.
Biggest thing dealing with communists is DO NOT show weakness. This is what they are really looking for in these talks!!! When you do, they will go for the jugular and the kill. If see strength they will back off and wait till weakness appears. They will not fight in the open, they know they can't win, unless it so for quick weak western bought out media play. Then they will show up briefly to get attention and push their crap. But fade away quickly when start being beaten.
Don't believe me here, read communists papers books ect. Not their stuff but people who have had to deal with them. And read first source original material. Today's nihilistic media has been so indoctrinated from their nihilistic universities that they are clueless. They just keep regurgitating the same old stuff they read in college.
Time to get back and get some real work done, showtime is over Donald. Thank you...
Zineb always brings out more significant factors than appear elsewhere. A breath of fresh air.
Thank you Zineb for your vision!
The key point is that Hormuz is not simply a button Iran can press.
It is a leverage channel that becomes self-trapping once activated.
Closing or restricting Hormuz does not only pressure Washington.
It also pressures China, India, Gulf producers, Asian importers, insurers, shipping markets, and Iran’s own remaining diplomatic room.
That is why Iran’s margin shrinks after escalation.
The threat is powerful while it remains optional.
Once used, it turns from leverage into a coordination problem against Iran.
You hit the nail on the head! Glad so many understand!
Selling oil to China is not new, and there is no shortage of customers for Texas oil.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTEXCH2&f=A
UN support is cheap.
Oil from the Western Hemisphere will jump when Venezuela's oil industry recovers, with massive US help.
In the 1980s Venezuela produced 3m bbd, much more than Iran's 2m bbd. Once this production is restored, the reduction in oil prices will compensate China for the discounts it got on sanctioned Iranian oil, without the risk of US sanctions.
The US will continue to control the spigot in Venezuela, unlike under Maduro.
I have to wonder if it’s even theoretically possible for Riboua to read anything in the news that in her mind isn’t another reason to endorse Trump’s disastrous decision to go to war.
At least two Gulf countries, UAE and Bahrein, disagree with you, openly. We don't know how many do that quietly. They know that if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it would have the entire region by their throats.
Reasons are quite different from pretexts.
What are your reasons for judging Trump's decision to engage militarily with Iran to be disastrous?
A classified document stated Iran could have sent a nuclear warhead to the US in a matter of weeks. Your past president Obama, if he could have stopped the World trade center’s destruction by invading, would you have been against that? And do you not care about the attacks on US military and civilians?? Every 3 days on average they kill an American. Your ok with that?? Please- explain!
“ classified document stated” — that’s all it takes in your mind to start a war? No congressional approval as required by the constitution? No attempt to persuade the public? Just draft a document saying what you want it to say and call it classified? And even if the document was right (highly doubtful) the result of this misadventure has only been to make the Iranians double down and race faster to get nukes, because now they have nothing to lose.
Lots of documents stated Iraq was also on the verge of getting nukes. They were wrong.
the war has been ongoing through proxies and cyber activities. Please address your TDS.
Well I could have addressed the military and civilian deaths at the Hands of IRGC attacks. They kill somebody on the average of every 3 day. They chant ) Death to America) Dayly. I guess intentional attacks don’t count?? Maybe I misjudged you??
Based on conservative estimates and using your three deaths per day as a benchmark, the war in Iran in two months killed about as many people as the IRCG was killing in nine years. You’re making a good argument for why the Iranian regime is bad (I agree they are) but not even addressing whether the war is a good idea.
Lots of regimes are bad. The Sudanese have murdered thousands. The Chinese destroyed Tibet and have committed genocide in Xinjiang. Russia’s crimes are infamous. Each of the above amount to well over three deaths per day. So do. we go to war against all of them?
Btw the US is murdering a few Venezuelan boaters per day under the pretext of the drug war. Should we go to war with ourselves?
The avg was one death every third day. The way I stated it was poorly written.
Thank you I misread that statistic. Of course it only further supports my position as the war would thus account for 30+ years of killing at Iran’s average rate.
The Panama Canal, Venezuela, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Malacca Strait, the Luzon Strait.
Tell me what these mean to you.
Very good. Interesting analysis. Iran and the United States both overestimated their ability to influence the patterns of events. Iran trusted in global oil shock that didn’t happen and the US thought of a swift operation leading to regime change and all that.
As for Beijing Summit, it was all about trade and economics. No breakthrough on any major political and strategic issues. Though Taiwan has always been a focal topic between the two countries.
Thanks very much Zineb. Enlightening take.
The Strait is Iranian and Omani waterways….so , pay up in the Chines Yuan and pass….
Before the zioUS adventure against Iran the Strait was open….remember???
Don’t look now, but someone just blew up the toll house! Lol
Whose oil did the Chinese ship bring thru the Strait of Hormuz? Iran’s or from one of the other states of the gulf?
Excellent work!!! You gained a follower Zineb!
"The Strait of Hormuz Is Not Iran's to Close". They did. Who & how will change this?
A complete misread. Xi was making a sly dog at Trump blockading the strait of Hormuz. The China visit was a humiliation for both Trump and America, and the world saw that America can be publicly mocked
surely you have muslims in your village to contend with.?
My village is called Vienna, capitol of Austria and second headquarters of The UN, after NY. Muslims make up more than 10% of the cities population. Great grocery stores, and they do my hair.
https://aaronruby.substack.com/p/growing-threat-of-us-china-war?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=7jhui4
Great article here thank you Zineb.
This trip was just politics. Trump and Co. looking like they are trying to talk intelligently with China for the stage.
But it's all BS. This administration finally understands, finally, one cannot deal with communists, they lie. This is Asia, they will talk out of both sides of their mouth (especially communists), it's called politeness and manners. We call it two-faced. Whichever side you want to believe but just understand how the game is played. Communists are monopolists. Their goal is to monopolize everything. Much different than capitalist monopolists who just game the business side of it for profits. True libertarian capitalists want to have moats, monopiles. Communists want the same except for EVERYTHING. See CCP.
Biggest thing dealing with communists is DO NOT show weakness. This is what they are really looking for in these talks!!! When you do, they will go for the jugular and the kill. If see strength they will back off and wait till weakness appears. They will not fight in the open, they know they can't win, unless it so for quick weak western bought out media play. Then they will show up briefly to get attention and push their crap. But fade away quickly when start being beaten.
Don't believe me here, read communists papers books ect. Not their stuff but people who have had to deal with them. And read first source original material. Today's nihilistic media has been so indoctrinated from their nihilistic universities that they are clueless. They just keep regurgitating the same old stuff they read in college.
Time to get back and get some real work done, showtime is over Donald. Thank you...
Again, very well done! 🌺
Alsi, do not underestimate the fact that IRI, as such, is a relic of the past. The system is broken, and broke.
You will see in 5 years.
Selling oil to China is not new, and there is no shortage of customers for Texas oil.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTEXCH2&f=A
UN support is cheap.