One obvious point that I keep returning to is that the Iranians can only play the Strait of Hormuz card once. They've now played it and it will be all downhill from here.
It will take time, but the SoH will eventually be bypassed as a regular means of oil transport. Iran has succeeded in "cutting off it's nose to spite it's face".
"What is different now, I think, is that the economic pressure is approaching a point of no return, in the sense that it is ultimately going to lead to a power struggle within the IRGC."
pardon my cynicism but i heard this about Russia, too, and seems to me that everyone just fell in line. i am sure that iran is not putin's russia, and the IRCG may be much more fractured than the kremlin-oligarch plutocracy... i hope the sanctions work and they're not just more wishful collapse-thinking.
that's just me being a pessimist.
fantastic writing per usual... learn a ton over here.
Regarding your cynicism, please consider that Russia shares 4,000+ km of border with China. Iran has no border with China (or Russia). Could this perhaps affect the relative effectiveness of economic pressure?
I agree their staying power may disappoint us. Their weakness however may also be lack on internal cohesion within the IGRC. The Iranian mosaic strategy to fight on as 31 independent districts *if invaded* accepted risk of internal fragmentation structurally. That can be potentially exploited especially by money, which they lack. Syria and Iraq of the past also present alternatives, an alternative that Iran itself exploited and had a hand in.
“They Knock on every door, purse in hand.” - Frederick the Great speaking of England.
“……The IRGC sits at the coercive core of a parallel state and serves as the expeditionary arm of a transnational revolutionary project, sustained by a vast proxy network whose weapons, salaries, logistics, and operations are financed with wealth extracted from ordinary Iranians…,.”
To starkly illustrate the last part of the sentence, there was a recent mass public demonstration in Isfahan by retired telecom workers, protesting that an IRGC company had unilaterally taken over the assets and pension fund of their industry, suggesting that they were no longer receiving their pensions.
We need to remember that the IRGC is a business as well as a para military organisation, controlling large parts of the Iranian economy. I would therefore be interested to know whether this take over can be viewed as a desperate attempt by the IRGC to shore up its collapsing revenues.
Perhaps as the Iranian population begins to see the direct effects of IRGC plunder through these kinds of actions so internal revolution will become a greater probability.
So many people say, Trump is losing, America is losing. Seems like nonsense to me. Iranians desperately need him to stay the course because without getting rid of the IRGC they are still stuck as a pariah state.
I think the Iranian people are very ready to join planet Earth and they will surely be a welcome addition. They will absolutely thrive in the real world they’re winners.
Glad - and relieved - to hear from you on the ME again. The protracted blizzard of unhelpful information and poor (or non-existent) analysis from most media makes events difficult to fathom. Please don’t hesitate to weigh in more frequently. Your knowledge and communication skills are needed.
can anyone quote an example of successful sanction policy? meaning did it overturn the prevailing regime? because in the end of the day the objective has to be clear: what are we targeting here? and i wonder if the US have a ready to go follow up plan of investing billions in Iran to modernize the country and lift the iranian people out of poverty and into a better place? What iranian politicians are saying counts ZERO, everyone knows the power sits somewhere else. and lastly, there is a long term game that needs to find a solution with China and Russia but that is for another time.
To the best of knowledge, Iran has been waiting for this and in fact practiced it since 2023 after the Russian war in Ukraine. In essence, this Caesar version of Syrian sanctions of 2019 by President Trump in 2019 during his first term. It worked for Syria. Let’s see how different this is going to be for Iran.
How many millions of ordinary Iranians will the regime be willing to let starve rather than give up power? (And utilise their deaths as propaganda). Tragically many I assume. I pray the IGRC falls well before then. Economic pressure is crucial, but is it enough?
Yes, what about Russia? Are the Iranians still providing drones for Russian use against Ukraine? Are the Russians still sharing information about American forces? Or materials that are otherwise unobtainable for the Iranians.
One obvious point that I keep returning to is that the Iranians can only play the Strait of Hormuz card once. They've now played it and it will be all downhill from here.
It will take time, but the SoH will eventually be bypassed as a regular means of oil transport. Iran has succeeded in "cutting off it's nose to spite it's face".
"What is different now, I think, is that the economic pressure is approaching a point of no return, in the sense that it is ultimately going to lead to a power struggle within the IRGC."
pardon my cynicism but i heard this about Russia, too, and seems to me that everyone just fell in line. i am sure that iran is not putin's russia, and the IRCG may be much more fractured than the kremlin-oligarch plutocracy... i hope the sanctions work and they're not just more wishful collapse-thinking.
that's just me being a pessimist.
fantastic writing per usual... learn a ton over here.
Regarding your cynicism, please consider that Russia shares 4,000+ km of border with China. Iran has no border with China (or Russia). Could this perhaps affect the relative effectiveness of economic pressure?
Certainly
I agree their staying power may disappoint us. Their weakness however may also be lack on internal cohesion within the IGRC. The Iranian mosaic strategy to fight on as 31 independent districts *if invaded* accepted risk of internal fragmentation structurally. That can be potentially exploited especially by money, which they lack. Syria and Iraq of the past also present alternatives, an alternative that Iran itself exploited and had a hand in.
“They Knock on every door, purse in hand.” - Frederick the Great speaking of England.
great points. i’m not familiar with the “mosaic” strategy. that is fascinating. it definitely is a risk-reward proposition.
Iran set up the Mosaic strategy to counter US invasion/occupation. We declined.
“……The IRGC sits at the coercive core of a parallel state and serves as the expeditionary arm of a transnational revolutionary project, sustained by a vast proxy network whose weapons, salaries, logistics, and operations are financed with wealth extracted from ordinary Iranians…,.”
To starkly illustrate the last part of the sentence, there was a recent mass public demonstration in Isfahan by retired telecom workers, protesting that an IRGC company had unilaterally taken over the assets and pension fund of their industry, suggesting that they were no longer receiving their pensions.
We need to remember that the IRGC is a business as well as a para military organisation, controlling large parts of the Iranian economy. I would therefore be interested to know whether this take over can be viewed as a desperate attempt by the IRGC to shore up its collapsing revenues.
Perhaps as the Iranian population begins to see the direct effects of IRGC plunder through these kinds of actions so internal revolution will become a greater probability.
So many people say, Trump is losing, America is losing. Seems like nonsense to me. Iranians desperately need him to stay the course because without getting rid of the IRGC they are still stuck as a pariah state.
I think the Iranian people are very ready to join planet Earth and they will surely be a welcome addition. They will absolutely thrive in the real world they’re winners.
Glad - and relieved - to hear from you on the ME again. The protracted blizzard of unhelpful information and poor (or non-existent) analysis from most media makes events difficult to fathom. Please don’t hesitate to weigh in more frequently. Your knowledge and communication skills are needed.
can anyone quote an example of successful sanction policy? meaning did it overturn the prevailing regime? because in the end of the day the objective has to be clear: what are we targeting here? and i wonder if the US have a ready to go follow up plan of investing billions in Iran to modernize the country and lift the iranian people out of poverty and into a better place? What iranian politicians are saying counts ZERO, everyone knows the power sits somewhere else. and lastly, there is a long term game that needs to find a solution with China and Russia but that is for another time.
Did you see Nate Swanson’s piece in Foreign Affairs? Seems like he might be in a place to actually know.
Thank you very much. Very useful and informative.
To the best of knowledge, Iran has been waiting for this and in fact practiced it since 2023 after the Russian war in Ukraine. In essence, this Caesar version of Syrian sanctions of 2019 by President Trump in 2019 during his first term. It worked for Syria. Let’s see how different this is going to be for Iran.
How many millions of ordinary Iranians will the regime be willing to let starve rather than give up power? (And utilise their deaths as propaganda). Tragically many I assume. I pray the IGRC falls well before then. Economic pressure is crucial, but is it enough?
Yes, what about Russia? Are the Iranians still providing drones for Russian use against Ukraine? Are the Russians still sharing information about American forces? Or materials that are otherwise unobtainable for the Iranians.