"What is different now, I think, is that the economic pressure is approaching a point of no return, in the sense that it is ultimately going to lead to a power struggle within the IRGC."
pardon my cynicism but i heard this about Russia, too, and seems to me that everyone just fell in line. i am sure that iran is not putin's russia, and the IRCG may be much more fractured than the kremlin-oligarch plutocracy... i hope the sanctions work and they're not just more wishful collapse-thinking.
that's just me being a pessimist.
fantastic writing per usual... learn a ton over here.
I agree their staying power may disappoint us. Their weakness however may also be lack on internal cohesion within the IGRC. The Iranian mosaic strategy to fight on as 31 independent districts *if invaded* accepted risk of internal fragmentation structurally. That can be potentially exploited especially by money, which they lack. Syria and Iraq of the past also present alternatives, an alternative that Iran itself exploited and had a hand in.
“They Knock on every door, purse in hand.” - Frederick the Great speaking of England.
One obvious point that I keep returning to is that the Iranians can only play the Strait of Hormuz card once. They've now played it and it will be all downhill from here.
So many people say, Trump is losing, America is losing. Seems like nonsense to me. Iranians desperately need him to stay the course because without getting rid of the IRGC they are still stuck as a pariah state.
I think the Iranian people are very ready to join planet Earth and they will surely be a welcome addition. They will absolutely thrive in the real world they’re winners.
Yes, what about Russia? Are the Iranians still providing drones for Russian use against Ukraine? Are the Russians still sharing information about American forces? Or materials that are otherwise unobtainable for the Iranians.
"What is different now, I think, is that the economic pressure is approaching a point of no return, in the sense that it is ultimately going to lead to a power struggle within the IRGC."
pardon my cynicism but i heard this about Russia, too, and seems to me that everyone just fell in line. i am sure that iran is not putin's russia, and the IRCG may be much more fractured than the kremlin-oligarch plutocracy... i hope the sanctions work and they're not just more wishful collapse-thinking.
that's just me being a pessimist.
fantastic writing per usual... learn a ton over here.
I agree their staying power may disappoint us. Their weakness however may also be lack on internal cohesion within the IGRC. The Iranian mosaic strategy to fight on as 31 independent districts *if invaded* accepted risk of internal fragmentation structurally. That can be potentially exploited especially by money, which they lack. Syria and Iraq of the past also present alternatives, an alternative that Iran itself exploited and had a hand in.
“They Knock on every door, purse in hand.” - Frederick the Great speaking of England.
One obvious point that I keep returning to is that the Iranians can only play the Strait of Hormuz card once. They've now played it and it will be all downhill from here.
So many people say, Trump is losing, America is losing. Seems like nonsense to me. Iranians desperately need him to stay the course because without getting rid of the IRGC they are still stuck as a pariah state.
I think the Iranian people are very ready to join planet Earth and they will surely be a welcome addition. They will absolutely thrive in the real world they’re winners.
Yes, what about Russia? Are the Iranians still providing drones for Russian use against Ukraine? Are the Russians still sharing information about American forces? Or materials that are otherwise unobtainable for the Iranians.