J'ai été particulièrement impressionné par votre analyse dans The Iran Question Is All About China. La perspicacité avec laquelle vous abordez le sujet dont il est question ici ne vient que confirmer à mes yeux la qualité de votre travail. Bravo.
Great insight, a vital aspect simply put … This is what Marco Rubio was getting at today when he talked for ten minutes about U.S. goals militarily … what it means to win.
As it’s said, the devil is in the details. One word that jumped out for me was, “aspirational”. This was a hallmark of the Obama administration. Current experience, the reach of Iran’s ballistic weapons, confirms the observations about their development. I’d like to note that for China this war is providing a live testing ground for some of its own military hardware and software.
Your observations are quite amazing in the way you are able to thread discrete units into a piece of whole cloth.
Yes. But I think the PRC cannot do anything more now. They have supplied what they can and hopefully the US and Israel have destroyed most of them before they can be deployed.
As far as I can tell the PRC does not have the stockpiles of fuel to get further involved and risk a resulting oil embargo. This is, BTW, unlike Japan which has, according to PM Takaichi 8-9 months supply of oil stockpiled in various places
Next year, Beijing might have the required storage and stockpiles, but it doesn't now.
This is an interesting conspiracy theory we should take with a grain of salt since it is based on Israeli intel. Netanyahu has been wrangling for years to get the U.S. to help them to take out Iran. Neither Trump nor Rubio are smart enough to figure this out on their own and Bibi knew they would take the bait of bogus China shipments intel.
If all of this was known, why not share that with Congress and get approval for a military response? Why weren’t the Saudis and other Gulf States warned of the strikes so they could prepare their defense responses? No, this is a story that has been fabricated after the fact to justify an illegal attack on Iran. This tale has the stink of Netanyahu and Mossad all over it. So, we are to believe this whole war is about China wanting to attack Taiwan? Absurd!
Clearly you missed the part about the U.S. finds in the cargo hold of the ship we intercepted. It wasn’t fertilizer they found. And BTW, can you explain how Iran has developed and deployed and used its ballistic rockets?
Iran has always had missiles and has been a leader in drone production supplying much of Russia’s drone stockpile. China is the world leader on drone technology supplying military and commercial markets worldwide. Much of Ukraine’s drone technology is bought from China. U.S. military and law enforcement use Chinese sourced drone equipment. China is the world’s factory, it’s what they do well. Anyone can buy drone and missile parts on Temu.
“If your enemy is making a mistake, do not distract them.” - Sun Tsu, The Art of War
Because the Trump administration is not articulating a reason to attack Iran, conspiracy theories are rampant. The idea that this is some evil plan by China to distract the U.S. from protecting Taiwan is absurd. China makes money, not war. Taiwan is a valuable asset to China and a plan of peaceful reunification is preferred. It will be an evolution, not a destructive revolution.
Rubio today explained that Israel was going to attack and decapitate the Iranian leadership triggering a violent Iranian response, so the U.S. was forced to take preemptive strikes to neutralize the damage to U.S. “interests” in the region. Rather than “China made me do it”, it is revealed that “Israel gave us no other choice.” Nobody will miss the Ayatollah, but this is truly a mess, the black hole of “forever war” we were warned to avoid. Yes, it will deplete the U.S. of blood and treasure just like Afghanistan and Iraq did.
The irony of this is that China will benefit from our mistakes. Yes, we will be distracted from the Asia Pacific infinitely swirling around in Middle East religious wars. With no “boots on the ground,” China will fill the vacuum. Iran is important to China as a fuel supply and as an important gateway to the West for its Belt and Road Initiative. With the Ayatollah out of the way, China can step in and start making money through trade. The EU is now more open to diversifying away from the unreliable U.S. and welcoming the possibilities of the New Silk Road. Pax America is the first casualty in this ill-fated “war of choice.”
I’ve gotta believe we’re intentionally withholding plenty of unique firepower that the PLA can neither predict nor calculate. Conversely, I expect we are currently using plenty of outdated, though sufficient, technology.
Good points. You have, I’m sure, noted the successful deployment by the Israelis of a land-based laser. I wonder what other unique weapons are positioned in this war theater’s wings.
Way too early to call this a win. China is the only country in Eastern and south eastern Asia with a huge stockpile of basically everything.
Iran just needs to keep the straight of Hormuz closed for tankers as well as being considered dangerous enough to take out a single tanker passing the Suez channel for the next 20-30 days. Then the western financial system and the petrodollar collapses and China can take Japan, Korea and Taiwan without resistance. It's anyway about Japan not Taiwan. Taiwan is the pretext only.
This conflict has shown that all China needs to be able to do is block any shipment to those three countries while sitting out on their own resources and they have to accept whatever terms China imposes.
Yes it will be very costly to china to , if world trade and the financial system collapses. But no other country is as well prepared for that.
It's actually only the question if Iranian scattered forces can keep that danger up. If so China and maybe Russia will be the only somewhat modern countries leftover while the rest of the world falls into anarchy and despair. It's even hard to know if they would still want Taiwan and co in that case or rather enjoy the situation of being the only resource using country left worldwide..
If Russia stops gas exports right now to Europe they out the western order under even bigger strains. The EU wouldn't survive this summer.
Dear madam Riboua, thank you again for a very actual and clear sighted article. In a short time i´ve become one of the many great admirers of your work and your intellect. And i particularly love the endeavor of your ME focus.
Do we know for a fact Iran´s missile stocks have indeed been largely destroyed ? And does that really solve the problem, considering the described production capacity? Or do we know for a fact that has been destroyed too?
Because what i DO know for a fact, is that Iran´s Ayat´allahs don´t think in elections and midterms. They think in generations and millenia. So does China. I would suppose that means any actual change needs to be very overwhelming, eventually if not immediately. This war then might prove less of a contained incidental effort and more of a long haul commitment than foreseen (by the US, which could play out detrimental to Israel´s US support).
Sounds like China should try to take Taiwan this summer or their window closes quickly. Which then makes things even more dangerous if the US has to resort to nuclear if we want to stop China. Scary.
China is currently in no position to attack Taiwan. For starters, Xi recently sacked the last and most prominent of his generals - very much as Stalin did in the run-up to WWII, except for the murdering then part.
Plus, Xi had years ago told the PLA to have the capacity to invade by 2027 or 28. But either way, the Chinese military last saw real action in 1979 when it got its head handed to it by Vietnam. The more recent escapades in the Himalayas clubbing Indian soldiers to death don’t count.
As things stand now, the Chinese military is functionally leaderless and in any event untested for what is an incredibly complex mission.
I agree. I'm pretty sure the timetable was for invasion next year. That's why, for example, the plans were to build up oil stockpiles this year.
Moreover, I'm fairly sure that the militarily competent parts of the PLA are looking at what happened in Venezuela and now Iran and deciding to re-calibrate since it looks like their anti-sleath radars don't work well
I think this is a very over confident take. Basing China's current military strength on what they did many decades ago is just foolhardy. They have already surrounded Taiwan many times, they can simply do this and cut off any trade. Their area of defense/denial is solid now, the US cannot get within range without risking its own ships and its bases in the area are also in range, and all would be stranded. The US can project power, but now when its up against a rival in its back yard, the logistics just simply dont allow for it.
Thank you for this. I have learned much from your writing, which is by far the clearest and most insightful on the Middle East that I have read.
You seem to be way out in front of other published reports in this important area.
Exactly. I just noted the same thought under her article, The Iran Question Is All About China
Thạnk you for waking up the sleepwalk America. Merci, mille fois merci.
J'ai été particulièrement impressionné par votre analyse dans The Iran Question Is All About China. La perspicacité avec laquelle vous abordez le sujet dont il est question ici ne vient que confirmer à mes yeux la qualité de votre travail. Bravo.
entièrement d’accord
Great insight, a vital aspect simply put … This is what Marco Rubio was getting at today when he talked for ten minutes about U.S. goals militarily … what it means to win.
This strategic analysis is brilliant and is entirely lacking in the criticism I hear about "Trump's war."
As it’s said, the devil is in the details. One word that jumped out for me was, “aspirational”. This was a hallmark of the Obama administration. Current experience, the reach of Iran’s ballistic weapons, confirms the observations about their development. I’d like to note that for China this war is providing a live testing ground for some of its own military hardware and software.
Your observations are quite amazing in the way you are able to thread discrete units into a piece of whole cloth.
Yes. But I think the PRC cannot do anything more now. They have supplied what they can and hopefully the US and Israel have destroyed most of them before they can be deployed.
As far as I can tell the PRC does not have the stockpiles of fuel to get further involved and risk a resulting oil embargo. This is, BTW, unlike Japan which has, according to PM Takaichi 8-9 months supply of oil stockpiled in various places
Next year, Beijing might have the required storage and stockpiles, but it doesn't now.
https://ombreolivier.substack.com/p/the-great-miscalculation?r=7yrqz
This is an interesting conspiracy theory we should take with a grain of salt since it is based on Israeli intel. Netanyahu has been wrangling for years to get the U.S. to help them to take out Iran. Neither Trump nor Rubio are smart enough to figure this out on their own and Bibi knew they would take the bait of bogus China shipments intel.
If all of this was known, why not share that with Congress and get approval for a military response? Why weren’t the Saudis and other Gulf States warned of the strikes so they could prepare their defense responses? No, this is a story that has been fabricated after the fact to justify an illegal attack on Iran. This tale has the stink of Netanyahu and Mossad all over it. So, we are to believe this whole war is about China wanting to attack Taiwan? Absurd!
Clearly you missed the part about the U.S. finds in the cargo hold of the ship we intercepted. It wasn’t fertilizer they found. And BTW, can you explain how Iran has developed and deployed and used its ballistic rockets?
Iran has always had missiles and has been a leader in drone production supplying much of Russia’s drone stockpile. China is the world leader on drone technology supplying military and commercial markets worldwide. Much of Ukraine’s drone technology is bought from China. U.S. military and law enforcement use Chinese sourced drone equipment. China is the world’s factory, it’s what they do well. Anyone can buy drone and missile parts on Temu.
“If your enemy is making a mistake, do not distract them.” - Sun Tsu, The Art of War
Because the Trump administration is not articulating a reason to attack Iran, conspiracy theories are rampant. The idea that this is some evil plan by China to distract the U.S. from protecting Taiwan is absurd. China makes money, not war. Taiwan is a valuable asset to China and a plan of peaceful reunification is preferred. It will be an evolution, not a destructive revolution.
Rubio today explained that Israel was going to attack and decapitate the Iranian leadership triggering a violent Iranian response, so the U.S. was forced to take preemptive strikes to neutralize the damage to U.S. “interests” in the region. Rather than “China made me do it”, it is revealed that “Israel gave us no other choice.” Nobody will miss the Ayatollah, but this is truly a mess, the black hole of “forever war” we were warned to avoid. Yes, it will deplete the U.S. of blood and treasure just like Afghanistan and Iraq did.
The irony of this is that China will benefit from our mistakes. Yes, we will be distracted from the Asia Pacific infinitely swirling around in Middle East religious wars. With no “boots on the ground,” China will fill the vacuum. Iran is important to China as a fuel supply and as an important gateway to the West for its Belt and Road Initiative. With the Ayatollah out of the way, China can step in and start making money through trade. The EU is now more open to diversifying away from the unreliable U.S. and welcoming the possibilities of the New Silk Road. Pax America is the first casualty in this ill-fated “war of choice.”
I’ve gotta believe we’re intentionally withholding plenty of unique firepower that the PLA can neither predict nor calculate. Conversely, I expect we are currently using plenty of outdated, though sufficient, technology.
Good points. You have, I’m sure, noted the successful deployment by the Israelis of a land-based laser. I wonder what other unique weapons are positioned in this war theater’s wings.
Way too early to call this a win. China is the only country in Eastern and south eastern Asia with a huge stockpile of basically everything.
Iran just needs to keep the straight of Hormuz closed for tankers as well as being considered dangerous enough to take out a single tanker passing the Suez channel for the next 20-30 days. Then the western financial system and the petrodollar collapses and China can take Japan, Korea and Taiwan without resistance. It's anyway about Japan not Taiwan. Taiwan is the pretext only.
This conflict has shown that all China needs to be able to do is block any shipment to those three countries while sitting out on their own resources and they have to accept whatever terms China imposes.
Yes it will be very costly to china to , if world trade and the financial system collapses. But no other country is as well prepared for that.
It's actually only the question if Iranian scattered forces can keep that danger up. If so China and maybe Russia will be the only somewhat modern countries leftover while the rest of the world falls into anarchy and despair. It's even hard to know if they would still want Taiwan and co in that case or rather enjoy the situation of being the only resource using country left worldwide..
If Russia stops gas exports right now to Europe they out the western order under even bigger strains. The EU wouldn't survive this summer.
Dear madam Riboua, thank you again for a very actual and clear sighted article. In a short time i´ve become one of the many great admirers of your work and your intellect. And i particularly love the endeavor of your ME focus.
Do we know for a fact Iran´s missile stocks have indeed been largely destroyed ? And does that really solve the problem, considering the described production capacity? Or do we know for a fact that has been destroyed too?
Because what i DO know for a fact, is that Iran´s Ayat´allahs don´t think in elections and midterms. They think in generations and millenia. So does China. I would suppose that means any actual change needs to be very overwhelming, eventually if not immediately. This war then might prove less of a contained incidental effort and more of a long haul commitment than foreseen (by the US, which could play out detrimental to Israel´s US support).
Excellent insight. Thanks
Another fine piece from this writer.
Thanks for another superb post.
Sounds like China should try to take Taiwan this summer or their window closes quickly. Which then makes things even more dangerous if the US has to resort to nuclear if we want to stop China. Scary.
China is currently in no position to attack Taiwan. For starters, Xi recently sacked the last and most prominent of his generals - very much as Stalin did in the run-up to WWII, except for the murdering then part.
Plus, Xi had years ago told the PLA to have the capacity to invade by 2027 or 28. But either way, the Chinese military last saw real action in 1979 when it got its head handed to it by Vietnam. The more recent escapades in the Himalayas clubbing Indian soldiers to death don’t count.
As things stand now, the Chinese military is functionally leaderless and in any event untested for what is an incredibly complex mission.
I agree. I'm pretty sure the timetable was for invasion next year. That's why, for example, the plans were to build up oil stockpiles this year.
Moreover, I'm fairly sure that the militarily competent parts of the PLA are looking at what happened in Venezuela and now Iran and deciding to re-calibrate since it looks like their anti-sleath radars don't work well
https://x.com/SpaceKoala/status/2027950978809434465
I think this is a very over confident take. Basing China's current military strength on what they did many decades ago is just foolhardy. They have already surrounded Taiwan many times, they can simply do this and cut off any trade. Their area of defense/denial is solid now, the US cannot get within range without risking its own ships and its bases in the area are also in range, and all would be stranded. The US can project power, but now when its up against a rival in its back yard, the logistics just simply dont allow for it.