Sharp analysis on the theological blind spots driving strategic miscalculation. The Velayat-e Faqih framework treating survival as validation creates a feedback loop where endurance gets confused with success. What grabbed me most was the point about Israel functioning as a deterrent multiplier, degrading capabilities before Washington even acts. That's teh kind of force projection asymmetry most analysis overlooks. Khamenei seems to be operating on a timeline that assumes external pressure exhausts itself, which worked during Obama but fundamentaly misreads Trump's transactional dominance model.
Great work Zineb. I know that Khameini has famously neglected to groom a successor, but are you aware of a rival faction of clerics from whence a competitor could emerge that would take over the regime, dispatching Khameini but maintaining Iran as an Islamic republic?
Hard to imagine two more dissimilar political leaders. One with a mindset from what, 1000 AD? The other distinctly contemporary. One rising, one falling. Thank you.
Brilliant article. Very good. The supreme leader has to undermine his opponents both in and outside the country in order to boost the morale of his followers. The IRGC more powerful and better informed of the country’s state of affairs than the clerics. IRGC is searching or waiting for a Den Xiaoping to emerge from the ranks. Infighting is intensifying within the ranks. The Eight Year War generation is fading and the new generation is different.
Sharp analysis on the theological blind spots driving strategic miscalculation. The Velayat-e Faqih framework treating survival as validation creates a feedback loop where endurance gets confused with success. What grabbed me most was the point about Israel functioning as a deterrent multiplier, degrading capabilities before Washington even acts. That's teh kind of force projection asymmetry most analysis overlooks. Khamenei seems to be operating on a timeline that assumes external pressure exhausts itself, which worked during Obama but fundamentaly misreads Trump's transactional dominance model.
"The effect is a systematic undervaluation of material power." The regime is very good at retail terrorism and very bad at actual battles.
Great work Zineb. I know that Khameini has famously neglected to groom a successor, but are you aware of a rival faction of clerics from whence a competitor could emerge that would take over the regime, dispatching Khameini but maintaining Iran as an Islamic republic?
Hard to imagine two more dissimilar political leaders. One with a mindset from what, 1000 AD? The other distinctly contemporary. One rising, one falling. Thank you.
Brilliant article. Very good. The supreme leader has to undermine his opponents both in and outside the country in order to boost the morale of his followers. The IRGC more powerful and better informed of the country’s state of affairs than the clerics. IRGC is searching or waiting for a Den Xiaoping to emerge from the ranks. Infighting is intensifying within the ranks. The Eight Year War generation is fading and the new generation is different.
Your takes on the situation in Iran is excellent.