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Black Crow's avatar

This essay is spot on, in my view. With Iran stripped of its control of Arab states like Syria and Iraq and unable to intimidate the states surrounding the Arabian Gulf (as the Saudis call it), opportunities for a new and better status quo in the Middle East abound. The mantra from Western intellectuals and journalists that “Iran is winning the war” is motivated more by their hatred for President Trump than by what’s actually happening in the war zone.

Les Yeux Sans Visage's avatar

Except there’s Israel expansionist war campaign to de-stabilize the region…

Henry Pietkiewicz's avatar

Though Iran is more than 95% Shia, in global terms Shia only represents 10-13% of Islam.

This might go some way to explaining the lack of support from the “Arab Street”.

Diamond Boy's avatar

Great article

I laughed out loud when I saw that picture of the 5 guys on the little boat with a machine gun going out to fight the US Navy. That’s hilarious: good luck, boys . They will probably die of sunburn, their hats don’t have a bill on them. Come on man you’re out in the sun put on a baseball cap: Yankees.

The reason the regime is going to lose is because all five of those guys would gladly accept refugee status in the United States and begin to live a normal life.

The Iranian people are ready to join planet Earth. Shia Islam just doesn’t compete well, kinda a bummer: Nice turbans though.

jeff fultz's avatar

lol concur Diamond concur...

Nicholas Coulson's avatar

Thank you for yet another great article. It seems that Iran’s fan club is limited to those Westerners (Europeans mostly) who loathe Trump and have probably never been East of Athens. Whereas Iran’s neighbours regard the regime as the problem, not something to be admired or exported, unless they’re on the payroll.

jeff fultz's avatar

"Police their own territory. Strong sovereign states are the only counterterrorism infrastructure capable of producing lasting outcomes" you stated here. YES! and where this administration stands on all countries. Have your own culture, defend yourselves from tyranny and dictators, run by the people. No globalization! No one world government. They become TBTF entities and are fragile. Countries that have a culture, are free, and open to debate are anti fragile unlike Iran, China, N Korea, Russia, and EU which are authoritarian and fragile.

Great post thank you.

Henry Pietkiewicz's avatar

The fact that Shia represent only 10-13%

Rick Bolin's avatar

Good points about eliminating most of Iran’s ability to project power. That was probably the biggest success for Trump. But the US is not “blockading the strait”, it is only blockading Iran’s ports. Iran’s threats to shipping still stand and the threats to the world’s economy are far from over. In addition, this situation has reignited Shia -Sunni hostilities.

Gordon Shriver's avatar

Let’s hope the Strait stays closed long enough to push oil prices high enough to collapse corrupt Asian and African governments using energy subsidies to stay in office.

Bob Sell's avatar

This is a beautiful, lucid, insightful interpretation of where this situation sits presently - I’m guessing most who read it hope the ultimate outcome is close at hand!

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

Humm... One should read Gideon Rachman's opinion posted in the Financial Times about Iran having the upper hand against the US...

Info much more objective and right to the point than what's published on this site...

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/364e6ea6-9d73-4aa1-8c63-639ac4b22e88

Faudra qu'un jour on m'explique ce biais systématique de Zineb Riboua pour un point de vue si peu objectif...

Saul's avatar

You can also read Ambrose E-E in the Daily telegraph if you want to believe Iran has the upper hand. Personally I have high confidence in the author's insight into "the Arab world (s)". The other point also discussed by the author and FDD is the financial and social consequences inside Iran of the current situation. This is not trivial.

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

Thank you for a comment which I value.

Now I don't mean to say that Iran has the upper hand but I value comments/analysis that present both point of views and not points of view solely and heavily focused on supporting a single aspect

Gordon Shriver's avatar

It’s a stupid article and Rachman is a loserdonkey. No one would be saying “Israel has the upper hand” if Iran had managed to assassinate Netanyahu along with the entire top layer of government and its currency had tanked by 80%.

What Zineb left out is that Iran imports almost all its food through the Strait and has no reserves. IRGC hardliners can work without pay but they can’t work without eating.