This essay is spot on, in my view. With Iran stripped of its control of Arab states like Syria and Iraq and unable to intimidate the states surrounding the Arabian Gulf (as the Saudis call it), opportunities for a new and better status quo in the Middle East abound. The mantra from Western intellectuals and journalists that “Iran is winning the war” is motivated more by their hatred for President Trump than by what’s actually happening in the war zone.
Israel defending itself from Hezbollah rockets is expanding? So I hit you in the nose and if you try to stop me from further aggression you would be expanding the fight? humm
Not expanding the fight, expanding its territory. Displacing citizens and grabbing natural resources from another country (not to mention violating human rights when doing so)
Once again defensive measures taken while being attacked are normal. Stop the attacks then talks and safe guards can take place. Israel is not the aggressor here it is Hezbollah. Of course they are funded by Iran so hopefully they will be a non entity soon and Lebanon can become once again a desirable place to live
Os destroying people’s houses considered defensive measures? Is killing women and children defensive measures? Again, all very well documented… the victim card is being overplayed by racist zionists who see themselves as superior human beings chosen by god.
I laughed out loud when I saw that picture of the 5 guys on the little boat with a machine gun going out to fight the US Navy. That’s hilarious: good luck, boys . They will probably die of sunburn, their hats don’t have a bill on them. Come on man you’re out in the sun put on a baseball cap: Yankees.
The reason the regime is going to lose is because all five of those guys would gladly accept refugee status in the United States and begin to live a normal life.
The Iranian people are ready to join planet Earth. Shia Islam just doesn’t compete well, kinda a bummer: Nice turbans though.
You can also read Ambrose E-E in the Daily telegraph if you want to believe Iran has the upper hand. Personally I have high confidence in the author's insight into "the Arab world (s)". The other point also discussed by the author and FDD is the financial and social consequences inside Iran of the current situation. This is not trivial.
Well I question her insight and her objectivity...
She's related to Hudson Institute which is a (neo-)conservative think tank that focuses on national security, foreign policy, and economics.
It promotes free-market policies, American leadership, and a strong national defense, often partnering with right-leaning funders and foundations.
Therefore I'm sorry but when you're related to right-leaning funders then you do have a strong bias on such concepts. Same thing for those who are related to left-leaning groups.
stop talking if you dont have anything of value to add… making dumb arguments and claiming you value both sides is a waste of time… Your insults of the author are a waste of time… your on the wrong side… we grown ups dont have time to help you find your way…
yes... There is no time or energy to spent with someone who is focused on idiotic attacks... your the one insulting our talented author... and your full lol shit... so maybe you shouldn't "shoot the ma=messenger" with your dumb unwanted analysis... Grown ups talk here...
No not to cut off from sources not related to one's convictions. To gain a "larger view" of the situation.
And yes to cut the sources who publish posts not based on - proven and detailed - facts, sources who in an evident manner are promoting some sponsors or ideology,...
So in this case if one looks at her postings quite evident she's promoting options related to (neo-)conservative groups and not taking care of at least present a more balanced opinion.
That's why I'm out of her postings and following other substacks - such as The Concis - where point of views are supported by clear evidences and respect one's opinion even disagree on some occasions.
I dunno man. That stuff about "balanced" and all just aounds havkneyed not to mention highly abstracted, to me. Equivocacentric, if you'll pardon my own coinage! Can a helpless moral relativism be far behind ? Zineb's work has given me the first sense of real, growing *perspective* i've had since long before this war began..
Now I don't mean to say that Iran has the upper hand but I value comments/analysis that present both point of views and not points of view solely and heavily focused on supporting a single aspect
It’s a stupid article and Rachman is a loserdonkey. No one would be saying “Israel has the upper hand” if Iran had managed to assassinate Netanyahu along with the entire top layer of government and its currency had tanked by 80%.
What Zineb left out is that Iran imports almost all its food through the Strait and has no reserves. IRGC hardliners can work without pay but they can’t work without eating.
You need to check your facts, Gordon; your claim Iran imports almost all its food through the straits is utterly false. You are confusing Iran with the Gulf States Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. In contrast to the Gulf states Iran is basically self-sufficient with food. It also trades across the Caspian Sea which cannot be blocked by Israel or the US with Russia one of the world's largest food exporters.
“Iran imports almost all its food through the Strait” means virtually all the food Iran imports is through the Strait, not that Iran imports almost all its food. The US blockade prevents the oil sales Iran depends on to pay for food imports, and payments are already hampered by sanctions.
Honestly the level of ignorance here is astounding. Here’s a Perplexity AI summary of Iran’s food import situation with sources:
The conflict creates a profound paradox for Iran: by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has effectively severed its **own primary food import lifeline**, since — as established earlier — roughly 40% of its food needs are imported, predominantly through that very strait.
## Iran's Self-Imposed Food Blockade
Iran imports ~10 million tonnes of corn and millions of tonnes of barley, soybean meal, edible oils, and rice annually, almost entirely via Bandar Imam Khomeini port through the Strait of Hormuz. By closing the strait and making commercial transit subject to attack, Iran has simultaneously blocked the route through which the majority of its own food arrives. The Iranian government had anticipated this — in January 2026, just weeks before the conflict erupted, Iran imported a **single-day record of ~183,000 tonnes of food** in a clear stockpiling attempt.[1][2][3]
## Domestic Food Shock
Iran was already structurally food-insecure even before the conflict — only 60% of its food needs were met domestically. With shipping through the strait down **more than 70%** since February 28, Iran's food import pipeline has been severely disrupted. Corn imports from Brazil — Iran's single most critical feed grain source — have been effectively halted, threatening its poultry, livestock, and aquaculture sectors. Dairy, seafood, and processed food supply chains face similar disruptions.[2][4][5][6]
## Strategic Vulnerability Exposed
Iran faces a specific multi-layered crisis:
- **Feed grain collapse**: With almost no domestic corn production and Brazilian corn unable to transit Hormuz, Iran's livestock and poultry industries face potential production cuts[7][2]
- **Rising food prices**: Middle East urea prices rose **19% within a week** of the closure, driving up domestic agricultural input costs[8]
- **Sanctions amplify the crisis**: Pre-existing U.S. sanctions already forced Iran to route payments through Turkish and Iraqi intermediary banks; wartime conditions make these financial workarounds far harder to sustain[9]
- **Over 2,000 ships stranded**: The UN estimates more than 2,000 ships are currently trapped in the Middle East — many carrying food cargoes destined for or transiting through Iran[10]
## The Caspian Sea Alternative
Iran's only meaningful alternative import route is via **Caspian Sea northern ports** (used for Russian and Kazakh barley), but this route has far too little capacity to substitute for the massive volumes of Brazilian corn and other food commodities that can only arrive by ocean-going bulk vessels through Hormuz. Land border routes through Turkey and Iraq can supplement supply but cannot absorb the scale of Iran's maritime food imports.[2]
## Long-Term Structural Damage
The conflict's duration is the decisive factor. The IFPRI warns that a **prolonged conflict** would not just disrupt current food supplies but — through fertilizer shortages — constrain Iran's **future domestic harvests** as well. Iran's roughly 7% agricultural self-sufficiency expansion achieved in recent years (via improved wheat output) could be reversed if domestic farmers cannot access fertilizers, diesel, and agricultural inputs that also transit Hormuz. For a country already spending $14–15 billion annually on food imports, this represents an existential economic and food security challenge.[4][11][12]
Hi Gordon, using AI generates very long and impressive looking answers but did you check if the given references actually supported the AI claims? I looked at most of the references and they didn't actually support many of the claims made.
It is also funny the AI doesn't seem to know about the new double line high-capacity China Iran freight railway. Rail is the next cheapest way to move large amounts of freight after ships.
I'm old enough to remember after Saddam invaded Kuwait the UN imposed extreme sanctions that were supposed to cause the collapse of the regime. They didn't. Iranians may have to get by with fewer types of food less meat or dairy or fruit, but they will still have enough calories.
In my opinion no need to further discuss this topic here: with our good friend Gordon publishing all kind of irrelevant data, let's forget about this substack...
I would suggest moving to The Concis where facts are verified and there's no bullying from guys such as Gordon...
The AI answer is correct. Read the Kpler link, they are the most reliable source for shipping. You’re just another loserdonkey clinging to risible opinions and no amount of “evidence” will convince you, but here’s your silly rail link idea debunked (note the current capacity of 1 million TPA, one tenth of Iran’s corn imports alone):
Yes, Iran does have a functioning rail link to China, launched in May 2025 — but its capacity to substitute for maritime food imports is **significant in strategic terms yet structurally limited in volume**.
## What It Can Realistically Supply
The rail corridor is well-suited to supplement certain food categories:
- **Chinese-origin processed foods, packaged goods, and consumer products** — China is Iran's largest trading partner and a growing food exporter[8]
- **Grains from Kazakhstan and Russia** — the rail route passes directly through both countries, which are already Iran's primary barley suppliers[9]
- **Dry goods, canned foods, and high-value food inputs** — containerised freight is the rail corridor's sweet spot[3]
Iran has also expanded its rail freight capacity ambitions, with plans to raise throughput from **1 million to 5 million tonnes annually**.[10]
## The Hard Capacity Ceiling
Despite its strategic value, the corridor faces fundamental limitations as a food security lifeline:
- **Volume mismatch**: Iran imports ~**10 million tonnes of corn alone** per year from Brazil. Even at the expanded 5 million tonne capacity, the corridor could handle less than half of just one commodity[11][10]
- **Wrong source geography**: Iran's most critical food imports — **Brazilian corn, Argentine soybeans** — originate in South America, not China or Central Asia. Rail cannot bridge South America to Iran[12]
- **Gauge changes and border delays**: The route crosses multiple rail gauge standards (Chinese, Kazakh, Iranian), requiring cargo transfers that slow throughput and create bottlenecks[3]
- **Cost**: A 40-foot container from Xi'an to Tehran costs **$4,500** by rail, compared to far cheaper bulk sea freight for commodities like grain[5]
- **Bulk grain incompatibility**: Grain is typically moved in massive bulk carriers of 50,000–80,000 tonnes. Rail containers carry a tiny fraction of this per trip, making per-tonne costs for staple grains prohibitively high
## Strategic Value vs. Food Security Reality
The rail link matters strategically — it gives Iran a **sanctions-resilient, Hormuz-independent corridor** for trade with its most important economic partner. However, for the specific food security crisis at hand — replacing tens of millions of tonnes of seaborne corn, soy, rice, and edible oils — the rail link is a **useful supplement, not a substitute**. Iran's food import dependency on maritime routes through Hormuz remains structurally unchanged, and the rail corridor's most realistic near-term role is alleviating shortages of **Chinese consumer goods, packaged foods, and Central Asian grains** rather than replacing South American bulk commodities.[2][13][3]
The person who needs to focus on facts and not unfounded allegations is you. See my reply to D.O. above. As for its bordering countries:
Several of Iran's neighbors are indeed significant food exporters, though their capacity to substitute for Iran's seaborne imports varies considerably. Iran shares land borders with **Turkey, Iraq, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan**, and has Caspian Sea access to **Russia and Kazakhstan**.
## Russia & Kazakhstan via the Caspian
Russia and Kazakhstan are Iran's established **Caspian Sea grain suppliers**, already delivering barley through northern ports like Anzali and Amirabad. However, this route has a hard structural ceiling — Caspian Sea vessels are far smaller than ocean-going bulk carriers, and the canal systems connecting the Caspian to global shipping are too shallow for large grain ships. This route can supplement but **cannot replace** the tens of millions of tonnes Iran normally receives through Hormuz.[3]
## Critical Gaps No Neighbor Can Fill
The most important shortfall is **corn** — Iran imports ~10 million tonnes annually, almost entirely from Brazil. None of Iran's neighbors produce corn at anywhere near this scale. Similarly, **soybeans and soybean meal** (Iran imports ~6 million tonnes/year) come primarily from Brazil and Argentina — again, with no regional substitute. Iraq and Afghanistan, while bordering Iran, are themselves **net food importers** and offer no meaningful food export capacity.[6][7][8]
In short, Turkey and the Caspian corridor (Russia/Kazakhstan) can meaningfully offset disruptions in **wheat and barley**, but Iran's dependence on South American feed grains like corn and soy has no viable land-border alternative — making the Hormuz closure particularly damaging for Iran's livestock and poultry sectors.[9][10]
Thank you for yet another great article. It seems that Iran’s fan club is limited to those Westerners (Europeans mostly) who loathe Trump and have probably never been East of Athens. Whereas Iran’s neighbours regard the regime as the problem, not something to be admired or exported, unless they’re on the payroll.
Zineb, you need to try to see the world as it is, not how you would like it to be. If you only listen to the MSM or people you agree with you won't understand what is actually happening in the world.
The US/Israeli attack on Iran has massively increased Iranian influence in Iraq. All US and NATO bases in Iraq and the green zone in Baghdad have come under attack and most have been evacuated. The Iraqi government has strongly backed Iran. Iraqi militias have been exchanging rocket fire across the Kuwait border with US and Kuwaiti forces. I have even heard talk in nongovernment circles of Iran supporting Iraq in an invasion of Kuwait to force out the US.
There are major anti-government protests in Bahrain. The last time there were major anti-government protests in Bahrain the protesters were wiped out by Saudi tanks and machine guns. This time Iran may stop the tanks getting to Bahrain and there may be, for the first time ever, some sort of a democratic government in Bahrain.
At the very beginning of this war, you wrote an article predicting this war would empower Japan against China. The opposite has happened. I left a comment predicting Japanese diplomats would be on their knees begging Iran for oil. I was right (figuratively). Japan has been reduced to begging Russia and Iran for oil. Japan is only one of many countries approaching Iran to negotiate for their ships to pass the strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, India, Malaysia and China are some of the countries that have publicly made deals with Iran. Other countries such as France and Greece seem to have made secret deals.
This supposed blockade of Iran by the US is just another nonthought out 2 am brain fart from Donald Trump. If the US stops an Indian or Japanese ship on the high seas going to India or Japan with Iranian oil that is an act of war against India or Japan. Is the US really going to do this? Why would India or Japan or any other country put up with this sort of behaviour from the US?
The simple fact is by attacking Iran the US and Israel have given Iran the perfect excuse for taking control of the strait of Hormuz. The US and Israel lack the military capacity to force Iran to open Hormuz. The rest of the world just has to accept this fact and get on with life.
Yes you nailed it. Well done. The scale and scope of what Iran and the IRGC had built was truly breathtaking and then when you consider the layering in of massive ballistic missile production AND then nukes, god help us. They were soooo close. 10/7 will also be considered in history as a massive miscalculation that gave Israel the motivation to take down Gaza and Hezbollah
Good points about eliminating most of Iran’s ability to project power. That was probably the biggest success for Trump. But the US is not “blockading the strait”, it is only blockading Iran’s ports. Iran’s threats to shipping still stand and the threats to the world’s economy are far from over. In addition, this situation has reignited Shia -Sunni hostilities.
This article is totally delusional. Come to think of it, that is almost the definition of the neoconservatism that Riboua peddles. Obviously Iran is not in a good place after being bombed for weeks, but neither are its neighbours and its attackers. Somehow Iran has managed to resist the massive and cruel onslaught of two military superpowers and has secured some very consequential strategic objectives. Also, as others here have remarked, this war has also fatally weakened the US system of alliances and is unifying an otherwise ultra-fragmented region against Israel’s pretension to regional hegemony.
The Saudi pipeline can in no way or form replace the missing millions of barrels coming from Hormuz.That is plain wrong. The loading capacity of the Saudi red sea port is max. 4 million a day- nowhere near enough.
This propaganda piece is brought to you by the new owners of Legacy Media Inc, in cahoots with the Xionist entity and it’s new allies from the Desert Oasis Dreamland defending the True Faith.
Please do not turn a crisis that remains highly uncertain, extraordinarily prone to cost spillovers, and politically unresolved into a near-validated narrative of American strategic success. That is not analysis. It is closer to treating a desired outcome as if it were already a confirmed result.
First, Zineb too quickly slides from “Arab states do not like Iran” to “Arab states will support an American attempt to reorder the region through military pressure and blockade.” That is a very large leap. In reality, Gulf states usually care less about who is more correct ideologically than about who can restore stability to energy exports, infrastructure security, capital markets, and domestic order as quickly as possible.
Second, one should not move directly from “the United States can disrupt Iranian trade” to “the United States has regained dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.” That inflates a tactical action into strategic control. What makes shipowners hesitate is not simply a legal order or a declared blockade. It is insurance costs, mines, missiles, drones, harassment by fast boats, and the broader perception of risk. As long as those risks remain, shipping will not automatically normalize just because Washington says it should.
Third, do not overestimate the ability to bypass Hormuz, and therefore overestimate America’s ability to fully neutralize Iran’s leverage there. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product flows passes through the Strait, while the backup pipeline capacity available to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is far too small to replace it. It amounts only to a few million barrels per day, nowhere near enough to substitute for the Strait itself. Partial rerouting capacity can cushion the shock, but it cannot eliminate Hormuz’s status as a systemic chokepoint. As long as that chokepoint still exists, Iran has not “lost its last card.” The cost of playing that card may have risen sharply, but a more expensive card is not the same thing as a vanished card.
Fourth, one should not misread “making Iran suffer more” as “opening a strategic window for the United States.” This is a recurring flaw in many Washington narratives: the assumption that if the other side is in greater pain, America must be moving closer to strategic victory. But the Middle East has never been a place where a few more rounds of strikes or a few more days of port disruption automatically lead to stable political reordering. Quite the opposite. The more intense the pressure becomes, the more likely Gulf states, Asian importers, and European allies are to converge around a different priority: stop the escalation, restore shipping, and contain the energy shock, not hand Washington a blank check to redesign the regional order on an open-ended basis.
In the end, the biggest problem with this article is not that it underestimates Iran. It is that it overestimates America’s ability to convert military pressure into political order. It misreads “Iran’s position has worsened” as “the United States has already gained strategic advantage.” It misreads “Arab states dislike Iran” as “Arab states will accept an American-led regional restructuring.” And it misreads “a blockade action has begun” as “strategic control has been established.”
The harsh reality of the Middle East is often the opposite: making the situation more dangerous is much easier than making the regional order more stable.
"Police their own territory. Strong sovereign states are the only counterterrorism infrastructure capable of producing lasting outcomes" you stated here. YES! and where this administration stands on all countries. Have your own culture, defend yourselves from tyranny and dictators, run by the people. No globalization! No one world government. They become TBTF entities and are fragile. Countries that have a culture, are free, and open to debate are anti fragile unlike Iran, China, N Korea, Russia, and EU which are authoritarian and fragile.
This essay is spot on, in my view. With Iran stripped of its control of Arab states like Syria and Iraq and unable to intimidate the states surrounding the Arabian Gulf (as the Saudis call it), opportunities for a new and better status quo in the Middle East abound. The mantra from Western intellectuals and journalists that “Iran is winning the war” is motivated more by their hatred for President Trump than by what’s actually happening in the war zone.
Except there’s Israel expansionist war campaign to de-stabilize the region…
And what "expansionist" war campaign are you referring to?
Gaza and Lebanon
Israel defending itself from Hezbollah rockets is expanding? So I hit you in the nose and if you try to stop me from further aggression you would be expanding the fight? humm
Not expanding the fight, expanding its territory. Displacing citizens and grabbing natural resources from another country (not to mention violating human rights when doing so)
Once again defensive measures taken while being attacked are normal. Stop the attacks then talks and safe guards can take place. Israel is not the aggressor here it is Hezbollah. Of course they are funded by Iran so hopefully they will be a non entity soon and Lebanon can become once again a desirable place to live
Os destroying people’s houses considered defensive measures? Is killing women and children defensive measures? Again, all very well documented… the victim card is being overplayed by racist zionists who see themselves as superior human beings chosen by god.
Though Iran is more than 95% Shia, in global terms Shia only represents 10-13% of Islam.
This might go some way to explaining the lack of support from the “Arab Street”.
Great article
I laughed out loud when I saw that picture of the 5 guys on the little boat with a machine gun going out to fight the US Navy. That’s hilarious: good luck, boys . They will probably die of sunburn, their hats don’t have a bill on them. Come on man you’re out in the sun put on a baseball cap: Yankees.
The reason the regime is going to lose is because all five of those guys would gladly accept refugee status in the United States and begin to live a normal life.
The Iranian people are ready to join planet Earth. Shia Islam just doesn’t compete well, kinda a bummer: Nice turbans though.
lol concur Diamond concur...
Humm... One should read Gideon Rachman's opinion posted in the Financial Times about Iran having the upper hand against the US...
Info much more objective and right to the point than what's published on this site...
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/364e6ea6-9d73-4aa1-8c63-639ac4b22e88
Faudra qu'un jour on m'explique ce biais systématique de Zineb Riboua pour un point de vue si peu objectif...
You can also read Ambrose E-E in the Daily telegraph if you want to believe Iran has the upper hand. Personally I have high confidence in the author's insight into "the Arab world (s)". The other point also discussed by the author and FDD is the financial and social consequences inside Iran of the current situation. This is not trivial.
Well I question her insight and her objectivity...
She's related to Hudson Institute which is a (neo-)conservative think tank that focuses on national security, foreign policy, and economics.
It promotes free-market policies, American leadership, and a strong national defense, often partnering with right-leaning funders and foundations.
Therefore I'm sorry but when you're related to right-leaning funders then you do have a strong bias on such concepts. Same thing for those who are related to left-leaning groups.
And I avoid both...
another leftwing apologists... We find your moronic views well moronic... You indoctrination will just be ignored for real information...
Instead of replying with facts, "kill the messenger"...
What a pity!
stop talking if you dont have anything of value to add… making dumb arguments and claiming you value both sides is a waste of time… Your insults of the author are a waste of time… your on the wrong side… we grown ups dont have time to help you find your way…
yes... There is no time or energy to spent with someone who is focused on idiotic attacks... your the one insulting our talented author... and your full lol shit... so maybe you shouldn't "shoot the ma=messenger" with your dumb unwanted analysis... Grown ups talk here...
Woh... Sorry for not complying to your religion.
"Praise the Lord Zineb Riboua" the leader of your sect...
"Grown ups talk here..." as well as stupid ass... as well !
In order to be where. exactly ?.in an altogether unaligned void? In which the only goal is avoidance of all association with anything and everything?
... in which the only goal is avoidance...
Yes and no.
No not to cut off from sources not related to one's convictions. To gain a "larger view" of the situation.
And yes to cut the sources who publish posts not based on - proven and detailed - facts, sources who in an evident manner are promoting some sponsors or ideology,...
So in this case if one looks at her postings quite evident she's promoting options related to (neo-)conservative groups and not taking care of at least present a more balanced opinion.
That's why I'm out of her postings and following other substacks - such as The Concis - where point of views are supported by clear evidences and respect one's opinion even disagree on some occasions.
I dunno man. That stuff about "balanced" and all just aounds havkneyed not to mention highly abstracted, to me. Equivocacentric, if you'll pardon my own coinage! Can a helpless moral relativism be far behind ? Zineb's work has given me the first sense of real, growing *perspective* i've had since long before this war began..
Thank you for a comment which I value.
Now I don't mean to say that Iran has the upper hand but I value comments/analysis that present both point of views and not points of view solely and heavily focused on supporting a single aspect
your of no value.... value dumb points of view is not to be admired... your wrong and wasting peoples time...
It’s a stupid article and Rachman is a loserdonkey. No one would be saying “Israel has the upper hand” if Iran had managed to assassinate Netanyahu along with the entire top layer of government and its currency had tanked by 80%.
What Zineb left out is that Iran imports almost all its food through the Strait and has no reserves. IRGC hardliners can work without pay but they can’t work without eating.
You need to check your facts, Gordon; your claim Iran imports almost all its food through the straits is utterly false. You are confusing Iran with the Gulf States Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain. In contrast to the Gulf states Iran is basically self-sufficient with food. It also trades across the Caspian Sea which cannot be blocked by Israel or the US with Russia one of the world's largest food exporters.
“Iran imports almost all its food through the Strait” means virtually all the food Iran imports is through the Strait, not that Iran imports almost all its food. The US blockade prevents the oil sales Iran depends on to pay for food imports, and payments are already hampered by sanctions.
Honestly the level of ignorance here is astounding. Here’s a Perplexity AI summary of Iran’s food import situation with sources:
The conflict creates a profound paradox for Iran: by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has effectively severed its **own primary food import lifeline**, since — as established earlier — roughly 40% of its food needs are imported, predominantly through that very strait.
## Iran's Self-Imposed Food Blockade
Iran imports ~10 million tonnes of corn and millions of tonnes of barley, soybean meal, edible oils, and rice annually, almost entirely via Bandar Imam Khomeini port through the Strait of Hormuz. By closing the strait and making commercial transit subject to attack, Iran has simultaneously blocked the route through which the majority of its own food arrives. The Iranian government had anticipated this — in January 2026, just weeks before the conflict erupted, Iran imported a **single-day record of ~183,000 tonnes of food** in a clear stockpiling attempt.[1][2][3]
## Domestic Food Shock
Iran was already structurally food-insecure even before the conflict — only 60% of its food needs were met domestically. With shipping through the strait down **more than 70%** since February 28, Iran's food import pipeline has been severely disrupted. Corn imports from Brazil — Iran's single most critical feed grain source — have been effectively halted, threatening its poultry, livestock, and aquaculture sectors. Dairy, seafood, and processed food supply chains face similar disruptions.[2][4][5][6]
## Strategic Vulnerability Exposed
Iran faces a specific multi-layered crisis:
- **Feed grain collapse**: With almost no domestic corn production and Brazilian corn unable to transit Hormuz, Iran's livestock and poultry industries face potential production cuts[7][2]
- **Rising food prices**: Middle East urea prices rose **19% within a week** of the closure, driving up domestic agricultural input costs[8]
- **Sanctions amplify the crisis**: Pre-existing U.S. sanctions already forced Iran to route payments through Turkish and Iraqi intermediary banks; wartime conditions make these financial workarounds far harder to sustain[9]
- **Over 2,000 ships stranded**: The UN estimates more than 2,000 ships are currently trapped in the Middle East — many carrying food cargoes destined for or transiting through Iran[10]
## The Caspian Sea Alternative
Iran's only meaningful alternative import route is via **Caspian Sea northern ports** (used for Russian and Kazakh barley), but this route has far too little capacity to substitute for the massive volumes of Brazilian corn and other food commodities that can only arrive by ocean-going bulk vessels through Hormuz. Land border routes through Turkey and Iraq can supplement supply but cannot absorb the scale of Iran's maritime food imports.[2]
## Long-Term Structural Damage
The conflict's duration is the decisive factor. The IFPRI warns that a **prolonged conflict** would not just disrupt current food supplies but — through fertilizer shortages — constrain Iran's **future domestic harvests** as well. Iran's roughly 7% agricultural self-sufficiency expansion achieved in recent years (via improved wheat output) could be reversed if domestic farmers cannot access fertilizers, diesel, and agricultural inputs that also transit Hormuz. For a country already spending $14–15 billion annually on food imports, this represents an existential economic and food security challenge.[4][11][12]
Sources
[1] Iran Conflict: What does this mean for global food sector? https://www.foodnavigator-asia.com/Article/2026/03/03/iran-conflict-what-does-this-mean-for-global-food-sector/
[2] Grain imports disrupted across the Middle East Gulf https://www.kpler.com/blog/grain-imports-disrupted-across-the-middle-east-gulf
[3] Iran sharply boosts food imports amid US threats https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/iran-sharply-boosts-food-imports-amid-us-threats/
[4] The Iran war: Potential food security impacts - IFPRI https://www.ifpri.org/blog/the-iran-war-potential-food-security-impacts/
[5] Iran closes Strait of Hormuz: Which foods will get pricier? https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/03/04/straight-of-hormuz-impact-on-food-pricing/
[6] 60% of Iran's Food Needs Met Domestically https://irannewsdaily.com/2025/08/60-of-irans-food-needs-met-domestically/
[7] The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food ... https://www.kpler.com/blog/the-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-what-it-means-for-grain-and-food-security
[8] The Iran War's Hidden Front: Food, Water, and Fertilizer https://www.cfr.org/articles/the-iran-wars-hidden-front-food-water-and-fertilizer
[9] Iran purchased 60 thousand tons of barley from Russia and ... https://www.tridge.com/news/iran-purchased-60-thousand-tons-of-barley-fr-yprgzn
[10] 2,000+ supply ships stranded: Iran war puts food security at risk https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/04/14/iran-war-disrupts-food-supply-chains-as-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-deepens/
[11] Food security: Iran conflict destabilises global food supply | LGT https://www.lgtwm.com/uk-en/insights/sustainability/food-security-iran-conflict-destabilises-global-food-supply-338872
[12] Hormuz disruption highlights importance of food-security resilience https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/hormuz-disruption-highlights-importance-of-food-security-resilience/
[13] Chokepoint: How the War with Iran Threatens Global Food Security https://www.csis.org/analysis/chokepoint-how-war-iran-threatens-global-food-security
[14] Strait of Hormuz: Gulf states' food security is at immediate risk but wider shortages could push up consumer prices globally https://theconversation.com/strait-of-hormuz-gulf-states-food-security-is-at-immediate-risk-but-wider-shortages-could-push-up-consumer-prices-globally-277214
[15] Food prices could rise as Iran conflict disrupts fertilizer supply chain https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/iran-news-food-prices-could-rise-due-to-fertilizer-shortages.html
[16] How the Iran war threatens global food supply https://www.npr.org/2026/03/20/nx-s1-5750812/how-the-iran-war-threatens-global-food-supply
[17] Strait of Hormuz closure triggers global supply shock with ... https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/strait-of-hormuz-closure-triggers-global-supply-shock-with-disproportionate-food-security-risks/
[18] How the Strait of Hormuz blockade could trigger a global food crisis https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/how-the-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-could-trigger-a-global-food-crisis-explained-article-13856195.html
[19] The Impacts of the Iran Attack on Supply Chains and Global Business https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/news-publications/inside-supply-management-magazine/blog/2026/2026-03/the-impacts-of-the-iran-attack-on-supply-chains-and-global-business/
[20] How Strait of Hormuz closure can become tipping point for global economy https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/11/strait-of-hormuz-closure-shipping-economy-oil.html
Hi Gordon, using AI generates very long and impressive looking answers but did you check if the given references actually supported the AI claims? I looked at most of the references and they didn't actually support many of the claims made.
It is also funny the AI doesn't seem to know about the new double line high-capacity China Iran freight railway. Rail is the next cheapest way to move large amounts of freight after ships.
I'm old enough to remember after Saddam invaded Kuwait the UN imposed extreme sanctions that were supposed to cause the collapse of the regime. They didn't. Iranians may have to get by with fewer types of food less meat or dairy or fruit, but they will still have enough calories.
In my opinion no need to further discuss this topic here: with our good friend Gordon publishing all kind of irrelevant data, let's forget about this substack...
I would suggest moving to The Concis where facts are verified and there's no bullying from guys such as Gordon...
So all data that doesn't align with your bullshit opinions is "irrelevant", which just proves you're loserdonkeys. Go play in your loserdonkey pen.
The AI answer is correct. Read the Kpler link, they are the most reliable source for shipping. You’re just another loserdonkey clinging to risible opinions and no amount of “evidence” will convince you, but here’s your silly rail link idea debunked (note the current capacity of 1 million TPA, one tenth of Iran’s corn imports alone):
Yes, Iran does have a functioning rail link to China, launched in May 2025 — but its capacity to substitute for maritime food imports is **significant in strategic terms yet structurally limited in volume**.
## What It Can Realistically Supply
The rail corridor is well-suited to supplement certain food categories:
- **Chinese-origin processed foods, packaged goods, and consumer products** — China is Iran's largest trading partner and a growing food exporter[8]
- **Grains from Kazakhstan and Russia** — the rail route passes directly through both countries, which are already Iran's primary barley suppliers[9]
- **Dry goods, canned foods, and high-value food inputs** — containerised freight is the rail corridor's sweet spot[3]
Iran has also expanded its rail freight capacity ambitions, with plans to raise throughput from **1 million to 5 million tonnes annually**.[10]
## The Hard Capacity Ceiling
Despite its strategic value, the corridor faces fundamental limitations as a food security lifeline:
- **Volume mismatch**: Iran imports ~**10 million tonnes of corn alone** per year from Brazil. Even at the expanded 5 million tonne capacity, the corridor could handle less than half of just one commodity[11][10]
- **Wrong source geography**: Iran's most critical food imports — **Brazilian corn, Argentine soybeans** — originate in South America, not China or Central Asia. Rail cannot bridge South America to Iran[12]
- **Gauge changes and border delays**: The route crosses multiple rail gauge standards (Chinese, Kazakh, Iranian), requiring cargo transfers that slow throughput and create bottlenecks[3]
- **Cost**: A 40-foot container from Xi'an to Tehran costs **$4,500** by rail, compared to far cheaper bulk sea freight for commodities like grain[5]
- **Bulk grain incompatibility**: Grain is typically moved in massive bulk carriers of 50,000–80,000 tonnes. Rail containers carry a tiny fraction of this per trip, making per-tonne costs for staple grains prohibitively high
## Strategic Value vs. Food Security Reality
The rail link matters strategically — it gives Iran a **sanctions-resilient, Hormuz-independent corridor** for trade with its most important economic partner. However, for the specific food security crisis at hand — replacing tens of millions of tonnes of seaborne corn, soy, rice, and edible oils — the rail link is a **useful supplement, not a substitute**. Iran's food import dependency on maritime routes through Hormuz remains structurally unchanged, and the rail corridor's most realistic near-term role is alleviating shortages of **Chinese consumer goods, packaged foods, and Central Asian grains** rather than replacing South American bulk commodities.[2][13][3]
Sources
[1] COMMENT: Iran's new rail link to China played a role in provoking ... https://www.intellinews.com/comment-iran-s-new-rail-link-to-china-played-a-role-in-provoking-the-12-day-war-388378/
[2] How Will Iran-China's Corridor Impact Eurasian Connectivity? https://www.specialeurasia.com/2025/06/09/iran-china-railway-eurasia/
[3] How Does the China Iran Freight Train Route Map Work in 2025? https://bestchinafreight.com/how-does-the-china-iran-freight-train-route-map-work-in-2025/
[4] HISTORIC! First Freight Train From China Wheels Into Iran, Flying In ... https://www.eurasiantimes.com/first-freight-train-from-china-wheels-into-iran/
[5] Iran Sees Spike in China-Europe Rail Traffic After New Deal https://caspianpost.com/iran/iran-sees-spike-in-china-europe-rail-traffic-after-new-deal
[6] COMMENT: Iran's new rail link to China played a role in ... https://www.intellinews.com/comment-iran-new-rail-link-to-china-played-a-role-in-provoking-the-12-day-war-388378/
[7] The $5.6 Billion China-Iran Oil Lifeline Railway Halted After Its First ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jDpBrszJw80
[8] Iran's trading partners revealed: Who's doing business and ... https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/etimes/trending/irans-trading-partners-revealed-whos-doing-business-and-what-do-they-get/articleshow/126512875.cms
[9] Iran purchased 60 thousand tons of barley from Russia and ... https://www.tridge.com/news/iran-purchased-60-thousand-tons-of-barley-fr-yprgzn
[10] Ciaran Mullan's Post - LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/posts/railmedia_china-strengthens-cargo-transit-via-expanding-activity-7418603374876454913-YaZJ
[11] Iran's corn buying capacity, a leading factor in 2025, ... https://datamarnews.com/noticias/irans-corn-buying-capacity-a-leading-factor-in-2025-worries-the-sector/
[12] Grain imports disrupted across the Middle East Gulf https://www.kpler.com/blog/grain-imports-disrupted-across-the-middle-east-gulf
[13] Iran’s Secret Rail Lifeline to China—How Oil Routes Are Outmaneuvering Western Sanctions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLky4ZBb3VE
[14] Beyond Strait of Hormuz: How China Iran rail system ... https://www.businesstoday.in/world/story/beyond-strait-of-hormuz-how-china-iran-rail-system-countered-us-threat-518864-2026-03-03
[15] Iran Positioning Itself as Strategic Hub on China-Europe ... https://caspianpost.com/iran/iran-positioning-itself-as-strategic-hub-on-china-europe-corridor
[16] China Just Built a 1,350km Railway to Iran. Here's Why It ... - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihdmvHe-uZo
[17] Chabahar–Zahedan railway - Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chabahar%E2%80%93Zahedan_railway
[18] China expands use of Iranian rail corridor for cargo transit https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/12/14/760646/Iran-cargo-transit-railway-China-trains
[19] Chabahar Rail Project - CivilsDaily https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/chabahar-rail-project/
Iran is facing a very serious long term water shortage due to mismanagement and overpopulation so it’s good self-sufficiency is very fragile.
Com'on... Iran is surrounded by many countries and can import it's food & medicine &... from neighboring countries without usage of the strait.
Let's keep these discussions focused on facts and not unfounded allegations...
The person who needs to focus on facts and not unfounded allegations is you. See my reply to D.O. above. As for its bordering countries:
Several of Iran's neighbors are indeed significant food exporters, though their capacity to substitute for Iran's seaborne imports varies considerably. Iran shares land borders with **Turkey, Iraq, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan**, and has Caspian Sea access to **Russia and Kazakhstan**.
## Russia & Kazakhstan via the Caspian
Russia and Kazakhstan are Iran's established **Caspian Sea grain suppliers**, already delivering barley through northern ports like Anzali and Amirabad. However, this route has a hard structural ceiling — Caspian Sea vessels are far smaller than ocean-going bulk carriers, and the canal systems connecting the Caspian to global shipping are too shallow for large grain ships. This route can supplement but **cannot replace** the tens of millions of tonnes Iran normally receives through Hormuz.[3]
## Critical Gaps No Neighbor Can Fill
The most important shortfall is **corn** — Iran imports ~10 million tonnes annually, almost entirely from Brazil. None of Iran's neighbors produce corn at anywhere near this scale. Similarly, **soybeans and soybean meal** (Iran imports ~6 million tonnes/year) come primarily from Brazil and Argentina — again, with no regional substitute. Iraq and Afghanistan, while bordering Iran, are themselves **net food importers** and offer no meaningful food export capacity.[6][7][8]
In short, Turkey and the Caspian corridor (Russia/Kazakhstan) can meaningfully offset disruptions in **wheat and barley**, but Iran's dependence on South American feed grains like corn and soy has no viable land-border alternative — making the Hormuz closure particularly damaging for Iran's livestock and poultry sectors.[9][10]
Sources
[1] Foreign trade of Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_Iran
[2] Iran, Islamic Rep. Food Products Imports by country 2022 - WITS https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/IRN/Year/LTST/TradeFlow/Import/Partner/by-country/Product/16-24_FoodProd
[3] Iran purchased 60 thousand tons of barley from Russia and ... https://www.tridge.com/news/iran-purchased-60-thousand-tons-of-barley-fr-yprgzn
[4] Iran Import and Export Guide (2025) https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/iran-import-export-guide-2025-trade-atlas-gmbh-7us4f
[5] Iran's trading partners revealed: Who's doing business and ... https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/etimes/trending/irans-trading-partners-revealed-whos-doing-business-and-what-do-they-get/articleshow/126512875.cms
[6] Best Countries for Exporting Goods from Iran in 2025 https://sharmarket.co/blog/the-best-countries-to-export-goods-from-iran-in-2025
[7] Iran's corn buying capacity, a leading factor in 2025, ... https://datamarnews.com/noticias/irans-corn-buying-capacity-a-leading-factor-in-2025-worries-the-sector/
[8] Iran reveals volume of imported essential foodstuffs https://www.trend.az/iran/3949331.html
[9] Grain imports disrupted across the Middle East Gulf https://www.kpler.com/blog/grain-imports-disrupted-across-the-middle-east-gulf
[10] The Strait of Hormuz blockade: what it means for grain and food ... https://www.kpler.com/blog/the-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-what-it-means-for-grain-and-food-security
[11] Iran Exports By Country https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/exports-by-country
[12] Agri-food trade with Iran - Agriculture and rural development https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/international/agricultural-trade/bilateral-agreements/middle-east-gulf-countries/agri-food-trade-iran_en
[13] Iran (IRN) Exports, Imports, and Trade Partners https://oec.world/en/profile/country/irn
Personne n’est objectif. Je n’ai aucune idée comme tous va dérouler.
Je constate que, dans ce forum, beaucoup d'affirmations non basées sur des faits et des propos énoncés sans fondement.
Ca commence à ressembler aux échanges sur facebook et très très loin de la qualité des échanges qu'on retrouve sur The Concis...
Et, avec un Gordon Schriver qui publie des idioties, raison de plus pour laisser tomber ce substack...
Thank you for yet another great article. It seems that Iran’s fan club is limited to those Westerners (Europeans mostly) who loathe Trump and have probably never been East of Athens. Whereas Iran’s neighbours regard the regime as the problem, not something to be admired or exported, unless they’re on the payroll.
Canadians also have extreme TDS
Zineb, you need to try to see the world as it is, not how you would like it to be. If you only listen to the MSM or people you agree with you won't understand what is actually happening in the world.
The US/Israeli attack on Iran has massively increased Iranian influence in Iraq. All US and NATO bases in Iraq and the green zone in Baghdad have come under attack and most have been evacuated. The Iraqi government has strongly backed Iran. Iraqi militias have been exchanging rocket fire across the Kuwait border with US and Kuwaiti forces. I have even heard talk in nongovernment circles of Iran supporting Iraq in an invasion of Kuwait to force out the US.
There are major anti-government protests in Bahrain. The last time there were major anti-government protests in Bahrain the protesters were wiped out by Saudi tanks and machine guns. This time Iran may stop the tanks getting to Bahrain and there may be, for the first time ever, some sort of a democratic government in Bahrain.
At the very beginning of this war, you wrote an article predicting this war would empower Japan against China. The opposite has happened. I left a comment predicting Japanese diplomats would be on their knees begging Iran for oil. I was right (figuratively). Japan has been reduced to begging Russia and Iran for oil. Japan is only one of many countries approaching Iran to negotiate for their ships to pass the strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, India, Malaysia and China are some of the countries that have publicly made deals with Iran. Other countries such as France and Greece seem to have made secret deals.
This supposed blockade of Iran by the US is just another nonthought out 2 am brain fart from Donald Trump. If the US stops an Indian or Japanese ship on the high seas going to India or Japan with Iranian oil that is an act of war against India or Japan. Is the US really going to do this? Why would India or Japan or any other country put up with this sort of behaviour from the US?
The simple fact is by attacking Iran the US and Israel have given Iran the perfect excuse for taking control of the strait of Hormuz. The US and Israel lack the military capacity to force Iran to open Hormuz. The rest of the world just has to accept this fact and get on with life.
Yes you nailed it. Well done. The scale and scope of what Iran and the IRGC had built was truly breathtaking and then when you consider the layering in of massive ballistic missile production AND then nukes, god help us. They were soooo close. 10/7 will also be considered in history as a massive miscalculation that gave Israel the motivation to take down Gaza and Hezbollah
the idea that blockade of few Iranian tankers will do more damage to Iranian regime than bombing raids is so ridiculous that is hard to comment
Good points about eliminating most of Iran’s ability to project power. That was probably the biggest success for Trump. But the US is not “blockading the strait”, it is only blockading Iran’s ports. Iran’s threats to shipping still stand and the threats to the world’s economy are far from over. In addition, this situation has reignited Shia -Sunni hostilities.
This article is totally delusional. Come to think of it, that is almost the definition of the neoconservatism that Riboua peddles. Obviously Iran is not in a good place after being bombed for weeks, but neither are its neighbours and its attackers. Somehow Iran has managed to resist the massive and cruel onslaught of two military superpowers and has secured some very consequential strategic objectives. Also, as others here have remarked, this war has also fatally weakened the US system of alliances and is unifying an otherwise ultra-fragmented region against Israel’s pretension to regional hegemony.
You appear to be completely detached from reality.
The Saudi pipeline can in no way or form replace the missing millions of barrels coming from Hormuz.That is plain wrong. The loading capacity of the Saudi red sea port is max. 4 million a day- nowhere near enough.
Very very good, Zineb.
This propaganda piece is brought to you by the new owners of Legacy Media Inc, in cahoots with the Xionist entity and it’s new allies from the Desert Oasis Dreamland defending the True Faith.
https://substack.com/@adnsukhavati/note/c-244589480?r=1owj66&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Please do not turn a crisis that remains highly uncertain, extraordinarily prone to cost spillovers, and politically unresolved into a near-validated narrative of American strategic success. That is not analysis. It is closer to treating a desired outcome as if it were already a confirmed result.
First, Zineb too quickly slides from “Arab states do not like Iran” to “Arab states will support an American attempt to reorder the region through military pressure and blockade.” That is a very large leap. In reality, Gulf states usually care less about who is more correct ideologically than about who can restore stability to energy exports, infrastructure security, capital markets, and domestic order as quickly as possible.
Second, one should not move directly from “the United States can disrupt Iranian trade” to “the United States has regained dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.” That inflates a tactical action into strategic control. What makes shipowners hesitate is not simply a legal order or a declared blockade. It is insurance costs, mines, missiles, drones, harassment by fast boats, and the broader perception of risk. As long as those risks remain, shipping will not automatically normalize just because Washington says it should.
Third, do not overestimate the ability to bypass Hormuz, and therefore overestimate America’s ability to fully neutralize Iran’s leverage there. Roughly one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product flows passes through the Strait, while the backup pipeline capacity available to Saudi Arabia and the UAE is far too small to replace it. It amounts only to a few million barrels per day, nowhere near enough to substitute for the Strait itself. Partial rerouting capacity can cushion the shock, but it cannot eliminate Hormuz’s status as a systemic chokepoint. As long as that chokepoint still exists, Iran has not “lost its last card.” The cost of playing that card may have risen sharply, but a more expensive card is not the same thing as a vanished card.
Fourth, one should not misread “making Iran suffer more” as “opening a strategic window for the United States.” This is a recurring flaw in many Washington narratives: the assumption that if the other side is in greater pain, America must be moving closer to strategic victory. But the Middle East has never been a place where a few more rounds of strikes or a few more days of port disruption automatically lead to stable political reordering. Quite the opposite. The more intense the pressure becomes, the more likely Gulf states, Asian importers, and European allies are to converge around a different priority: stop the escalation, restore shipping, and contain the energy shock, not hand Washington a blank check to redesign the regional order on an open-ended basis.
In the end, the biggest problem with this article is not that it underestimates Iran. It is that it overestimates America’s ability to convert military pressure into political order. It misreads “Iran’s position has worsened” as “the United States has already gained strategic advantage.” It misreads “Arab states dislike Iran” as “Arab states will accept an American-led regional restructuring.” And it misreads “a blockade action has begun” as “strategic control has been established.”
The harsh reality of the Middle East is often the opposite: making the situation more dangerous is much easier than making the regional order more stable.
"Police their own territory. Strong sovereign states are the only counterterrorism infrastructure capable of producing lasting outcomes" you stated here. YES! and where this administration stands on all countries. Have your own culture, defend yourselves from tyranny and dictators, run by the people. No globalization! No one world government. They become TBTF entities and are fragile. Countries that have a culture, are free, and open to debate are anti fragile unlike Iran, China, N Korea, Russia, and EU which are authoritarian and fragile.
Great post thank you.
The fact that Shia represent only 10-13%