"Tehran’s strength came from force multiplication"
This is a concept that many don't understand...and why Iran (and the IRGC specifically) must be eliminated as a government/political entity. MANY problems will be solved once Iran is removed from the equation!
Interesting piece…. Seems logical to be sure… yet, Iran still controls much of what passes through the straits…. And they’re still firing missiles at US installations across the Middle East. So they apparently still have enough available assets to keep the US at bay, stay alive and they’re certainly demonstrating their willingness to withstand pain and suffering…
Thank you for sharing this. The analysis is clear, well-structured, and very helpful in cutting through assumptions that have shaped so much of the debate. Grateful you took the time to write and share it.
If factually true, I hope the US Administration will share this compelling analysis, and the tangible results of the strategy, with the American people when it comes to mid term elections.
If the strategy is bearing fruit the People will support it. Why? Because people aren’t stupid. They now understand the growing existential threat Iran and its proxies posed to the West over the last 50 years, the failure of appeasement and sanctions by successive American Administrations, and the pressing need to take out Iran both militarily and economically to remove that threat.
When the Regime is sufficiently weakened, hopefully the Iranian People themselves will rise up and take back the country, with or without the the assistance of the regular army which seems to be the runt in the Regime’s pack of dogs and with sufficient grievances to switch sides, and even possibly with the help of the Kurds.
I appreciate this is all speculation based on wishful thinking, but in the real world who knows what horse trading is going on behind the scenes.
the main issue is about the final destination of the journey. What is the final objective (assuming that cutting military and nuclear powers have been achieved)? and who will pick up the slack? because all the people living off iranian money will not apply for regular jobs unless there is a strong turnaround, meaning massive investments lifting the economic windfall so high that people will think twice before jeopardizing what they have.
Hard to dispute posts like these because they are so well articulated and evidenced. I have read elsewhere that pipelines by passing the gulf have already been built and more are coming on line soon. The Hormuz leverage may be quite brief. And these by passes are built to be defensible from drones. Even the Houthis seem to be thinking twice before offering more than symbolic support. When the $ dry up what allies are left?
With the current US administrtion, its hard to see us executing any strategic and coherent set if policies. We are once again in a conflict where we are obviously desperate to out of and our opponent knows it.
I read it several times. Clearly you have not been seriously looking into the last 6 months. How many times has this administration told us that we have "won" this confilct? How many agreements were just about to be signed. "Any day now"? No, really they will cave any moment. Just not today or tomorrow. But soon. Right nick?
You can watch every minute of the game if you like, Tom. You can feel up and then down, trying to figure out what the teams are up to. Personally, I'm just going to check on the score once in a while.
This is not a game for your amusement. American lives are on the line. Iranian citizens lives are on the line. It is revealing about your character and maturity that you refer to it as a game.
Look at the data dude. Iran's economy is in free fall, the blockade is crushing their economy, they can't import or export. Transits through the straight are way up and Iran's ability to threaten it has been whittled down.
Then why haven't they surrendered? You're like the Trump administration who keep telling us that we won the first day, no, the firt hour. Yet the war goes on. We're told that regime is broken and IRGC are done and yet they are all still there. You and they sound like McNamara and Westmoreland in the 60's. The reality on the ground doesn't match the spin.
Excellent piece as always, and a far cry from the same garbage mainstream media has been pushing. I just wish there would be more people like you bringing and different perspective that actually considers all the factors and not just driven by political partisanship or ideology.
Convincing analysis of US strategy on Iran, thanks!
And none of the sanctions will matter if China doesn’t go along with them…
"Tehran’s strength came from force multiplication"
This is a concept that many don't understand...and why Iran (and the IRGC specifically) must be eliminated as a government/political entity. MANY problems will be solved once Iran is removed from the equation!
Interesting piece…. Seems logical to be sure… yet, Iran still controls much of what passes through the straits…. And they’re still firing missiles at US installations across the Middle East. So they apparently still have enough available assets to keep the US at bay, stay alive and they’re certainly demonstrating their willingness to withstand pain and suffering…
Thank you for sharing this. The analysis is clear, well-structured, and very helpful in cutting through assumptions that have shaped so much of the debate. Grateful you took the time to write and share it.
If factually true, I hope the US Administration will share this compelling analysis, and the tangible results of the strategy, with the American people when it comes to mid term elections.
If the strategy is bearing fruit the People will support it. Why? Because people aren’t stupid. They now understand the growing existential threat Iran and its proxies posed to the West over the last 50 years, the failure of appeasement and sanctions by successive American Administrations, and the pressing need to take out Iran both militarily and economically to remove that threat.
When the Regime is sufficiently weakened, hopefully the Iranian People themselves will rise up and take back the country, with or without the the assistance of the regular army which seems to be the runt in the Regime’s pack of dogs and with sufficient grievances to switch sides, and even possibly with the help of the Kurds.
I appreciate this is all speculation based on wishful thinking, but in the real world who knows what horse trading is going on behind the scenes.
Great piece. Insight and knowledge meet logic and lucid writing.
the main issue is about the final destination of the journey. What is the final objective (assuming that cutting military and nuclear powers have been achieved)? and who will pick up the slack? because all the people living off iranian money will not apply for regular jobs unless there is a strong turnaround, meaning massive investments lifting the economic windfall so high that people will think twice before jeopardizing what they have.
Hard to dispute posts like these because they are so well articulated and evidenced. I have read elsewhere that pipelines by passing the gulf have already been built and more are coming on line soon. The Hormuz leverage may be quite brief. And these by passes are built to be defensible from drones. Even the Houthis seem to be thinking twice before offering more than symbolic support. When the $ dry up what allies are left?
With the current US administrtion, its hard to see us executing any strategic and coherent set if policies. We are once again in a conflict where we are obviously desperate to out of and our opponent knows it.
Weak defeatism. You didn't even read the article.
I read it several times. Clearly you have not been seriously looking into the last 6 months. How many times has this administration told us that we have "won" this confilct? How many agreements were just about to be signed. "Any day now"? No, really they will cave any moment. Just not today or tomorrow. But soon. Right nick?
You can watch every minute of the game if you like, Tom. You can feel up and then down, trying to figure out what the teams are up to. Personally, I'm just going to check on the score once in a while.
Team Trump for the win!
This is not a game for your amusement. American lives are on the line. Iranian citizens lives are on the line. It is revealing about your character and maturity that you refer to it as a game.
Look at the data dude. Iran's economy is in free fall, the blockade is crushing their economy, they can't import or export. Transits through the straight are way up and Iran's ability to threaten it has been whittled down.
Then why haven't they surrendered? You're like the Trump administration who keep telling us that we won the first day, no, the firt hour. Yet the war goes on. We're told that regime is broken and IRGC are done and yet they are all still there. You and they sound like McNamara and Westmoreland in the 60's. The reality on the ground doesn't match the spin.
Do not forget that most of the wins indicated above were achieved during THIS administration. Just be honest!
What wins? My posts all deal with failures. Its hard to tell if this administration wants Ukraine to prevail.
Excellent piece as always, and a far cry from the same garbage mainstream media has been pushing. I just wish there would be more people like you bringing and different perspective that actually considers all the factors and not just driven by political partisanship or ideology.