"Tehran’s strength came from force multiplication"
This is a concept that many don't understand...and why Iran (and the IRGC specifically) must be eliminated as a government/political entity. MANY problems will be solved once Iran is removed from the equation!
Interesting piece…. Seems logical to be sure… yet, Iran still controls much of what passes through the straits…. And they’re still firing missiles at US installations across the Middle East. So they apparently still have enough available assets to keep the US at bay, stay alive and they’re certainly demonstrating their willingness to withstand pain and suffering…
Thank you for sharing this. The analysis is clear, well-structured, and very helpful in cutting through assumptions that have shaped so much of the debate. Grateful you took the time to write and share it.
If factually true, I hope the US Administration will share this compelling analysis, and the tangible results of the strategy, with the American people when it comes to mid term elections.
If the strategy is bearing fruit the People will support it. Why? Because people aren’t stupid. They now understand the growing existential threat Iran and its proxies posed to the West over the last 50 years, the failure of appeasement and sanctions by successive American Administrations, and the pressing need to take out Iran both militarily and economically to remove that threat.
When the Regime is sufficiently weakened, hopefully the Iranian People themselves will rise up and take back the country, with or without the the assistance of the regular army which seems to be the runt in the Regime’s pack of dogs and with sufficient grievances to switch sides, and even possibly with the help of the Kurds.
I appreciate this is all speculation based on wishful thinking, but in the real world who knows what horse trading is going on behind the scenes.
the main issue is about the final destination of the journey. What is the final objective (assuming that cutting military and nuclear powers have been achieved)? and who will pick up the slack? because all the people living off iranian money will not apply for regular jobs unless there is a strong turnaround, meaning massive investments lifting the economic windfall so high that people will think twice before jeopardizing what they have.
Hard to dispute posts like these because they are so well articulated and evidenced. I have read elsewhere that pipelines by passing the gulf have already been built and more are coming on line soon. The Hormuz leverage may be quite brief. And these by passes are built to be defensible from drones. Even the Houthis seem to be thinking twice before offering more than symbolic support. When the $ dry up what allies are left?
With the current US administrtion, its hard to see us executing any strategic and coherent set if policies. We are once again in a conflict where we are obviously desperate to out of and our opponent knows it.
I read it several times. Clearly you have not been seriously looking into the last 6 months. How many times has this administration told us that we have "won" this confilct? How many agreements were just about to be signed. "Any day now"? No, really they will cave any moment. Just not today or tomorrow. But soon. Right nick?
You can watch every minute of the game if you like, Tom. You can feel up and then down, trying to figure out what the teams are up to. Personally, I'm just going to check on the score once in a while.
This is not a game for your amusement. American lives are on the line. Iranian citizens lives are on the line. It is revealing about your character and maturity that you refer to it as a game.
would you say the same also for the Ukraine / Russia story? it seems to me in that case many people support a continuous struggle that in 4.5 yrs has brought nothing other than death, destruction, squandering of financial resources. But it seems that the Donbass is worth dying for. By analogy, Iran is the main sponsor of international terrorism so why not applying the same logic? and go one level up. A constantly destabilized ME is helping who? Certainly not the US and Israel....move east on the map....and the beneficiary is the CCP. i don't like seeing people dying but wars are unfortunately part of human nature and history.
Did Ukraine start their conflict? Don't see how Ukrain vs Russia has anything to do with what my original post was other than "what aboutism".
Saudia Arabia has been and continues to be a supporter of extremist sunni based terrorism that impacts the region and the world.
My original post dealt with this administration's inability to form a coherent set of strategies and policies. Its definition of "winning" has include regime change, Iran people creating some sort of democracy and then saying that the POTUS would choose the next leader. We were told we "won" the first hour of the conflict. Yet we are in a far worse situation than when we started this conflict. A more extreme regime is now in place, shipping out of the gulf is crippled, and Iran repeatedly demonstrates an ability to use low cost drones and missiles that hit all over the ME. Our interceptor stocks and critical munitions components are dangerously low and the lead time to replace them is years. Now we're back to using sanctions which this administration and Iran hawks mocked as ineffective.
So in just every way possible, this administration is failing both strategically and tactically. How am I supposed to see any glimmer of hope?
Who cares? Google how many troops the US would need to conduct a land invasion and execute regime change. Then look up how many trillions it would cost.
Look at the data dude. Iran's economy is in free fall, the blockade is crushing their economy, they can't import or export. Transits through the straight are way up and Iran's ability to threaten it has been whittled down.
Then why haven't they surrendered? You're like the Trump administration who keep telling us that we won the first day, no, the firt hour. Yet the war goes on. We're told that regime is broken and IRGC are done and yet they are all still there. You and they sound like McNamara and Westmoreland in the 60's. The reality on the ground doesn't match the spin.
Throughout the Vietnam conflict, people like you dismissed any criticism of how the war effort was beign waged. You "hated" America and we're a commie if you did not blindly support the war. But after we lost, were globally embarrased, history showed all the criticism was correct. Truman, Eisnehower, Kennedy and Johnson did not want to be involved in Vietnam but because of domestic policies they felt compelled to get involved. The strategy and tactics were all flawed. The sixma war games 1962-67 all repeatedly showed defeat, the Pentagon ignored them and they turned out to be right. But both the military and civilians LIED year after year to congress and the American people about EVERYTHING.
Fast forward to Afghanistan, civilians and military lied to congress and the American people about the strength of the government we iinstalled, about how competent and fit the Afghan police and army was. All lies. We were never losing but never winning but the plan was "sound."
Iraq had to go to the breaking point where the whole country was about to collapse before the administration admitted its strategy, tactics and policies were wrong. The government that ultimately evolved was a Shia one with strong ties and loyalty to Iran. We created AQI and its successor ISIS with our incompetence.
Excellent piece as always, and a far cry from the same garbage mainstream media has been pushing. I just wish there would be more people like you bringing and different perspective that actually considers all the factors and not just driven by political partisanship or ideology.
Convincing analysis of US strategy on Iran, thanks!
And none of the sanctions will matter if China doesn’t go along with them…
"Tehran’s strength came from force multiplication"
This is a concept that many don't understand...and why Iran (and the IRGC specifically) must be eliminated as a government/political entity. MANY problems will be solved once Iran is removed from the equation!
Interesting piece…. Seems logical to be sure… yet, Iran still controls much of what passes through the straits…. And they’re still firing missiles at US installations across the Middle East. So they apparently still have enough available assets to keep the US at bay, stay alive and they’re certainly demonstrating their willingness to withstand pain and suffering…
Thank you for sharing this. The analysis is clear, well-structured, and very helpful in cutting through assumptions that have shaped so much of the debate. Grateful you took the time to write and share it.
If factually true, I hope the US Administration will share this compelling analysis, and the tangible results of the strategy, with the American people when it comes to mid term elections.
If the strategy is bearing fruit the People will support it. Why? Because people aren’t stupid. They now understand the growing existential threat Iran and its proxies posed to the West over the last 50 years, the failure of appeasement and sanctions by successive American Administrations, and the pressing need to take out Iran both militarily and economically to remove that threat.
When the Regime is sufficiently weakened, hopefully the Iranian People themselves will rise up and take back the country, with or without the the assistance of the regular army which seems to be the runt in the Regime’s pack of dogs and with sufficient grievances to switch sides, and even possibly with the help of the Kurds.
I appreciate this is all speculation based on wishful thinking, but in the real world who knows what horse trading is going on behind the scenes.
Great piece. Insight and knowledge meet logic and lucid writing.
the main issue is about the final destination of the journey. What is the final objective (assuming that cutting military and nuclear powers have been achieved)? and who will pick up the slack? because all the people living off iranian money will not apply for regular jobs unless there is a strong turnaround, meaning massive investments lifting the economic windfall so high that people will think twice before jeopardizing what they have.
Hard to dispute posts like these because they are so well articulated and evidenced. I have read elsewhere that pipelines by passing the gulf have already been built and more are coming on line soon. The Hormuz leverage may be quite brief. And these by passes are built to be defensible from drones. Even the Houthis seem to be thinking twice before offering more than symbolic support. When the $ dry up what allies are left?
With the current US administrtion, its hard to see us executing any strategic and coherent set if policies. We are once again in a conflict where we are obviously desperate to out of and our opponent knows it.
Weak defeatism. You didn't even read the article.
I read it several times. Clearly you have not been seriously looking into the last 6 months. How many times has this administration told us that we have "won" this confilct? How many agreements were just about to be signed. "Any day now"? No, really they will cave any moment. Just not today or tomorrow. But soon. Right nick?
You can watch every minute of the game if you like, Tom. You can feel up and then down, trying to figure out what the teams are up to. Personally, I'm just going to check on the score once in a while.
Team Trump for the win!
This is not a game for your amusement. American lives are on the line. Iranian citizens lives are on the line. It is revealing about your character and maturity that you refer to it as a game.
would you say the same also for the Ukraine / Russia story? it seems to me in that case many people support a continuous struggle that in 4.5 yrs has brought nothing other than death, destruction, squandering of financial resources. But it seems that the Donbass is worth dying for. By analogy, Iran is the main sponsor of international terrorism so why not applying the same logic? and go one level up. A constantly destabilized ME is helping who? Certainly not the US and Israel....move east on the map....and the beneficiary is the CCP. i don't like seeing people dying but wars are unfortunately part of human nature and history.
Did Ukraine start their conflict? Don't see how Ukrain vs Russia has anything to do with what my original post was other than "what aboutism".
Saudia Arabia has been and continues to be a supporter of extremist sunni based terrorism that impacts the region and the world.
My original post dealt with this administration's inability to form a coherent set of strategies and policies. Its definition of "winning" has include regime change, Iran people creating some sort of democracy and then saying that the POTUS would choose the next leader. We were told we "won" the first hour of the conflict. Yet we are in a far worse situation than when we started this conflict. A more extreme regime is now in place, shipping out of the gulf is crippled, and Iran repeatedly demonstrates an ability to use low cost drones and missiles that hit all over the ME. Our interceptor stocks and critical munitions components are dangerously low and the lead time to replace them is years. Now we're back to using sanctions which this administration and Iran hawks mocked as ineffective.
So in just every way possible, this administration is failing both strategically and tactically. How am I supposed to see any glimmer of hope?
The vast majority of Iranians desperately want to be rid of the Islamonazi Republic.
Who cares? Google how many troops the US would need to conduct a land invasion and execute regime change. Then look up how many trillions it would cost.
Look at the data dude. Iran's economy is in free fall, the blockade is crushing their economy, they can't import or export. Transits through the straight are way up and Iran's ability to threaten it has been whittled down.
Then why haven't they surrendered? You're like the Trump administration who keep telling us that we won the first day, no, the firt hour. Yet the war goes on. We're told that regime is broken and IRGC are done and yet they are all still there. You and they sound like McNamara and Westmoreland in the 60's. The reality on the ground doesn't match the spin.
The reality on the ground is exactly what I described.
The real question is, why do people like you let their TDS lead them to cheering for Iran?
Throughout the Vietnam conflict, people like you dismissed any criticism of how the war effort was beign waged. You "hated" America and we're a commie if you did not blindly support the war. But after we lost, were globally embarrased, history showed all the criticism was correct. Truman, Eisnehower, Kennedy and Johnson did not want to be involved in Vietnam but because of domestic policies they felt compelled to get involved. The strategy and tactics were all flawed. The sixma war games 1962-67 all repeatedly showed defeat, the Pentagon ignored them and they turned out to be right. But both the military and civilians LIED year after year to congress and the American people about EVERYTHING.
Fast forward to Afghanistan, civilians and military lied to congress and the American people about the strength of the government we iinstalled, about how competent and fit the Afghan police and army was. All lies. We were never losing but never winning but the plan was "sound."
Iraq had to go to the breaking point where the whole country was about to collapse before the administration admitted its strategy, tactics and policies were wrong. The government that ultimately evolved was a Shia one with strong ties and loyalty to Iran. We created AQI and its successor ISIS with our incompetence.
Do not forget that most of the wins indicated above were achieved during THIS administration. Just be honest!
What wins? My posts all deal with failures. Its hard to tell if this administration wants Ukraine to prevail.
Excellent piece as always, and a far cry from the same garbage mainstream media has been pushing. I just wish there would be more people like you bringing and different perspective that actually considers all the factors and not just driven by political partisanship or ideology.