Thank you for your work extrapolating the full reach and consequences of Epic Fury, and how the US policy has degraded China’s influence at so many levels.
Strong analysis on the petroyuan weakness and the clean energy tariff walls closing. You're right that manufacturing scale is not geopolitical leverage when your customers are actively building alternatives, and the Iran-Saudi brokering while arming Iran contradiction is something most China-optimists ignore.
But I think the framing is too binary. The question isn't whether this war "cements China's superpower status." China doesn't need superpower status to win from this war. It needs the US to be distracted, depleted, and discredited. All three are happening simultaneously.
A few points from my coverage:
China is the one country Iran is still letting through Hormuz. Chinese vessels are broadcasting "Chinese crew" status to secure passage through the IRGC's managed corridor. China is buying oil while everyone else is rationing. That's not replacing the dollar order. It's exploiting the collapse of the current one in real time.
China controls 80% of global tungsten production and imposed export controls in 2025. The US cannot replenish its munition stockpiles without Chinese supply chains. RUSI estimates 11,000 munitions expended in 16 days at $26 billion. Tomahawk production is 90 per year. The US has fired 850. The industrial base that needs to replenish these stocks runs through China. Beijing doesn't need to fire a shot. It just needs to not sell tungsten.
The diplomatic track is also shifting. Pakistan hosted Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad last week to mediate. Not Washington. Not Beijing. But the mediators are moving away from the US orbit, not toward it. China doesn't need to mediate. It needs everyone else to stop relying on the US for security guarantees, and that's exactly what's happening as Gulf state basing nations watch their refineries burn.
Your definition of superpower requires "setting the terms of international order, providing security guarantees, absorbing shocks without rationing." By that standard, the US isn't a superpower right now either. It can't guarantee Gulf state security (13 bases rendered uninhabitable). It can't absorb the oil shock ($116 and climbing toward $200). It can't set the terms of Hormuz (Iran sets them, at $2M per vessel).
The system is fragmenting. China benefits from fragmentation without needing to replace the US at the center. That's the more dangerous outcome than "superpower status," and it's already underway.
Would be interested in seeing an argument for why a number of publications have now jumped onto this thesis in a that goes well beyond merely warning Americans about potential concerns.
This is a great argument. You are right in that Chinese absence from all stages in current Middle East crisis is conspicuous. Some people argue that China is doing a lot from behind the scenes. We don’t know and have no clue. However, Iran has nearly shifted the energy maps of the world. The United States is the biggest oil and gas producer in the world but need permission from Iran in order to move around ships in the Persian Gulf. Chinese ships move around freely. That may not be the case once Iran is grounded.
Another laughable post from an unserious author who at the start of the Iran War claimed Japan, whose energy consumption is 30% dependent on oil and LNG through Hormuz, is the biggest winner.
Of course America’s current embarrassment in the Iran quagmire and American military’s impotence exposed by Iran’s Hormuz blockade won’t make China a superpower outright, but within the context of the Sino-American geopolitical contest, it sure helps China inching closer to unseating the current incumbent global hegemon.
On point 1, today the oil intensity per unit of GDP is 1/10 of what it used to be and advanced economies normally rely on services more than low value adding manufacturing. On point 2, if Chinese producers are happy to subsidize western consumers, to get hard currencies, let them do it. It is a misallocation of capital at their end. On point 3, no savvy investors wants to hold a currency that is subject to manipulation, backed by questionable data, and representing an illiberal country. To conclude, the fact that certain media and people might not like legitimately Trump, the US, Israel is not a logical framework to draw conclusion on economy and dominance.
If so, you seem to be over rotating on the use of the word "superpower," which appears in the headline (usually inserted by an editor, not the writer) and once, in the context of MAGA's wishful thinking. As a result, you argue about what superpowers do, in terms of setting the international order. The piece itself, however, is about how China "is well positioned to turn the conflict into an advantage in the race for global economic supremacy," as it says in the lead. Following on this, the writer touches on areas like diversification, particularly towards electrification; the rundown of U.S. military stockpiles; the possibility of improved relations with Mideast countries (which aren't super happy with Trump's war, or the way the U.S. president said (at a Saudi event!) that Saudi Arabia's de factor rules "is kissing my ass"); the weakening of the petrodollar regime; and the rise of China's net favorability vis a vis the U.S.
Those did seem like well-taken points, and worthy of consideration.
Hard to envisage anyone really trusting the US anymore. We’ve two and a half more years of this-who knows how much more irreparable damage Trump can do,and I don’t see the useless Democrats pulling a Truman out of the hat anytime soon. It’s China‘s to lose atm-I hope I’m wrong!
Thank you for your work extrapolating the full reach and consequences of Epic Fury, and how the US policy has degraded China’s influence at so many levels.
Very enlightening.
Strong analysis on the petroyuan weakness and the clean energy tariff walls closing. You're right that manufacturing scale is not geopolitical leverage when your customers are actively building alternatives, and the Iran-Saudi brokering while arming Iran contradiction is something most China-optimists ignore.
But I think the framing is too binary. The question isn't whether this war "cements China's superpower status." China doesn't need superpower status to win from this war. It needs the US to be distracted, depleted, and discredited. All three are happening simultaneously.
A few points from my coverage:
China is the one country Iran is still letting through Hormuz. Chinese vessels are broadcasting "Chinese crew" status to secure passage through the IRGC's managed corridor. China is buying oil while everyone else is rationing. That's not replacing the dollar order. It's exploiting the collapse of the current one in real time.
China controls 80% of global tungsten production and imposed export controls in 2025. The US cannot replenish its munition stockpiles without Chinese supply chains. RUSI estimates 11,000 munitions expended in 16 days at $26 billion. Tomahawk production is 90 per year. The US has fired 850. The industrial base that needs to replenish these stocks runs through China. Beijing doesn't need to fire a shot. It just needs to not sell tungsten.
The diplomatic track is also shifting. Pakistan hosted Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt in Islamabad last week to mediate. Not Washington. Not Beijing. But the mediators are moving away from the US orbit, not toward it. China doesn't need to mediate. It needs everyone else to stop relying on the US for security guarantees, and that's exactly what's happening as Gulf state basing nations watch their refineries burn.
Your definition of superpower requires "setting the terms of international order, providing security guarantees, absorbing shocks without rationing." By that standard, the US isn't a superpower right now either. It can't guarantee Gulf state security (13 bases rendered uninhabitable). It can't absorb the oil shock ($116 and climbing toward $200). It can't set the terms of Hormuz (Iran sets them, at $2M per vessel).
The system is fragmenting. China benefits from fragmentation without needing to replace the US at the center. That's the more dangerous outcome than "superpower status," and it's already underway.
I've covered the Hormuz mechanics, the munitions math, and the coalition fracture in detail: https://tatsuikeda.substack.com/p/the-sovereign-chokepoint-how-iran
Great work Zineb thank you.
Would be interested in seeing an argument for why a number of publications have now jumped onto this thesis in a that goes well beyond merely warning Americans about potential concerns.
If superpower status requires others to trust you, the US is no longer a superpower now
This is a great argument. You are right in that Chinese absence from all stages in current Middle East crisis is conspicuous. Some people argue that China is doing a lot from behind the scenes. We don’t know and have no clue. However, Iran has nearly shifted the energy maps of the world. The United States is the biggest oil and gas producer in the world but need permission from Iran in order to move around ships in the Persian Gulf. Chinese ships move around freely. That may not be the case once Iran is grounded.
Another laughable post from an unserious author who at the start of the Iran War claimed Japan, whose energy consumption is 30% dependent on oil and LNG through Hormuz, is the biggest winner.
Of course America’s current embarrassment in the Iran quagmire and American military’s impotence exposed by Iran’s Hormuz blockade won’t make China a superpower outright, but within the context of the Sino-American geopolitical contest, it sure helps China inching closer to unseating the current incumbent global hegemon.
On point 1, today the oil intensity per unit of GDP is 1/10 of what it used to be and advanced economies normally rely on services more than low value adding manufacturing. On point 2, if Chinese producers are happy to subsidize western consumers, to get hard currencies, let them do it. It is a misallocation of capital at their end. On point 3, no savvy investors wants to hold a currency that is subject to manipulation, backed by questionable data, and representing an illiberal country. To conclude, the fact that certain media and people might not like legitimately Trump, the US, Israel is not a logical framework to draw conclusion on economy and dominance.
You don't seem to have linked to the FT article, so it's hard to know which one you're arguing with here. I assume it's this one - https://www.ft.com/content/47edd17c-366f-42e4-b0cf-c20e065210d2?syn-25a6b1a6=1
If so, you seem to be over rotating on the use of the word "superpower," which appears in the headline (usually inserted by an editor, not the writer) and once, in the context of MAGA's wishful thinking. As a result, you argue about what superpowers do, in terms of setting the international order. The piece itself, however, is about how China "is well positioned to turn the conflict into an advantage in the race for global economic supremacy," as it says in the lead. Following on this, the writer touches on areas like diversification, particularly towards electrification; the rundown of U.S. military stockpiles; the possibility of improved relations with Mideast countries (which aren't super happy with Trump's war, or the way the U.S. president said (at a Saudi event!) that Saudi Arabia's de factor rules "is kissing my ass"); the weakening of the petrodollar regime; and the rise of China's net favorability vis a vis the U.S.
Those did seem like well-taken points, and worthy of consideration.
https://igreaterchina.substack.com/p/fortifying-the-hegemon-internal-discipline?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
Hard to envisage anyone really trusting the US anymore. We’ve two and a half more years of this-who knows how much more irreparable damage Trump can do,and I don’t see the useless Democrats pulling a Truman out of the hat anytime soon. It’s China‘s to lose atm-I hope I’m wrong!
With the shutting down of the financial network in Dubai, the squeeze on the Petroyuan is tightening.
Agree. Just the opposite.