Slow down a little Zineb, you might find you have declared victory a bit soon. Iran is still fighting and seems to be inflicting significant damage on the US. The Iranians have already destroyed one of the most expensive radars in the world that cost more than one billion dollars. It was an American ballistic missile long range early warning radar that could track ballistic missile launches from western China right across to Southern Russia and all of Iran. There is also plenty of other damage on American bases across the region.
The absolutely huge question for Japan and the rest of the world is, will Iran block the straits of Hormuz? If they do that then Japan, along with many other countries such as South Korea, Australia and Singapore will be in an economic disaster. China is in a far better position than Japan because not only does it produce its own oil it can import oil from Iran by rail, avoiding the Straits entirely.
I suspect we will see Iran allowing tankers going to friendly countries like China to pass through the straits but blocking all other tankers. If that happens then given a month or so Japanese diplomats will be on their knees begging Iran to allow tankers out to go to Japan.
Of course he can't. You and I both know that. Their supreme leader is dead. It would be like if they killed Trump. The wars over no matter how much the America haters dont like it
If the Iranians killed Trump, then the US would be far better off. Vance still has his marbles. Just like Sleepy Joe, Trump is losing his marbles before our eyes. Its elder abuse to leave Trump or Sleepy Joe in office.
The Ayatollah will probably be replaced by someone younger, more capable and more radical. The only thing stopping Iran building nukes was the Ayatollah's religious belief they were a bad thing. It is quite possible the next Ayatollah will decide they need nukes. In that case they will probably build them in less than a month.
On the question of significant damage to the US, the long-range early warning radar alone is significant. With ballistic missiles the sooner you detect them the easier it is to shoot them down. The loss of this radar will be making it harder for the US to shoot down any of the longer rand missiles fired by Iran. I can't be sure the radar was hit, pictures may be fake, but it seems very likely.
As for other damage just have a look around social media. There are heaps of video clips showing US bases being hit and on fire.
Unless Murica pulls its head out of its arse and prioritises deadly force across Hormuz. Easier said than done of course and requiring the ongoing acceptance of casualties.
Sure. Trump didn't know Epstein either. Israel never attacks hospitals. Not only was it a deliberate attack but a double tap. Even if it was an Irananian misile, the US is still responsible. This is an unprovoked war of aggression.
If the author is correct about Chinese failure to protect its clients, then they will come to see, as the Americans have done, that economic and military hegemony are intertwined, and moved to remedy the situation over time.
It's clear that the Iranians cannot win this war in the conventional sense, but they don't really need to, they just need to survive.
There are very few instances of successfully achieving regime change through air power alone, and the US/Isreal have already begun to use Gaza style tactics of indiscriminate bombing of civilians in the hope of provoking regime change by internal revolt.
And don't underestimate Trump willingness to do whatever it takes to save face, including boots on the ground.
In the mean time the potential for Iran to inflict pain on the US through disruption to the global economy is potentially significant.
If the US/Isreal objective is simply to reduce Tehran to rubble, as they have done in Gaza, then they will likely succeed. For those with the biggest hammer, every problem becomes a nail. And while creating a failed state in Iran ay well suit Isreals purpose, it not clear that it's to the advantage of the Americans or their Gulf allies.
Howver, as Trump's stated geo political objectives seem to change by the day, defining success will be difficult.
The dead Ayatollah had no direct involvement in war planning, and can be easily replaced. If anything his assasination was a strategic blunder, in that it has galvanised support for the rehime, which as of yet shows little sign of imploding.
No:) You are confusing the military hierarchy with the religious one. Yes, many of the military leaders have been killed but the Ayatollah's son, even more conservative than his father, is in line to succeed him, and as of this morning he is very much alive.
I'm a little skeptical about this analysis. China has never formalized any agreement of mutual defense that I'm aware of.
Japan is, like the US and every other country, highly reliant on Chinese outputs for their industry. China already has blocked certain critical exports to Japan and has reduced pace of delivery to USA.
I don't believe this war with Iran is doing anything to alter that dynamic. I'm really hopeful that the people of Iran will come out of this in a better position. However, China is likely treating this as a welcome distraction for the US that keeps them further away from fixing real issues re: their huge reliance on China.
Another strong piece, Zineb! The sanctions-evasion argument in particular — that Iran functioned as a live rehearsal environment for Chinese contingency planning — is an insight more people should consider.
I do wonder, though, whether focusing on Japan slightly understates the breadth of the shift you’re describing.
If Beijing’s energy flexibility tightens, if overland Belt and Road corridors through Iran stall, if the China–Russia–Iran alignment appears more transactional than durable, and if U.S. alliance commitments are seen as credible under pressure — that seems less like a “Japan win” and more like a structural gain for the entire U.S.-aligned Indo-Pacific coalition, and arguably for any country that ultimately depends on American security guarantees.
India benefits from constrained Chinese maneuvering space in the Indian Ocean. The Philippines benefits from reinforced alliance credibility in the South China Sea. Australia gains diplomatic leverage as prospective partners recalibrate their assumptions about who can actually protect clients under stress. Even Canada, which just recently sought deeper economic engagement with Beijing, may come to reassess that approach.
Japan is certainly a critical ally, and perhaps the cleanest lens through which to view the shift. But the shift actually goes far beyond just Japan.
In that sense, the bigger story may not be that Tokyo is the “big winner,” but that the alliance of free Western nations has been stress-tested — and now appears more durable than the alternative model Beijing has been marketing.
Either way, it’s a thought-provoking argument, and one that forces readers to think beyond the Middle East theater.
Japan is one of China's main strategic rivals in the Western Pacific: the two compete for military dominance in the East and South China Seas ……
But do they really compete for military dominance? C’mon. Chinese go most wherever they want and certainly see no competition for territory with the Chinese.
This essay seems designed to fit a pre-decided thesis.
And, fwiw, PM Takaichi needs to devote energies to numerous domestic challenges, especially the deficit.
Seems like the Afghanistan portion of their railway may not prove to be all that stable either, but maybe the Chinese are showering all concerned there with goodies to buy non-disruption.
Interesting take, but Japan might actually be the most structurally exposed loser here.
Japan imports nearly all of its fossil fuels, and LNG alone accounts for 36% of its electricity production. Any disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping hits Japan harder than almost any other developed economy. That means higher import costs and downward pressure on the yen which then makes energy imports even more expensive. Japan has spent years trying to carefully exit its deflationary era, the BoJ has been slowly raising rates, wages are finally moving. An external energy shock now creates a stagflation trap: raise rates to fight inflation and you crush fragile growth; hold rates and inflation runs.
The country best positioned to absorb an oil shock is one with domestic energy buffers or pricing power. Japan has neither. Hard to see the winning side from there.
Hmm. I'm not so sure that Japan has too much comfort in this regime's support. I agree with the rest and especially the reminder to everyone that China doesn't offer protection against the US, which absolutely helps Japan.
I don't know if a country that imports of all it's oil would be happy with a Middle Eastern war. Certainly weakens China, but it would be fairer to say that both countries are negatively affected.
Yes - intelligent, bold analysis clearly expressed (China’s schemes publicly “gutted”). If there had been any wavering by China, it likely was suppressed by the speed and success of the operation (to date), combined with the reported support of other ME countries. I wonder if those countries might help out if Iranian zealots cause problems. Trump likes to get in and out fast, and here may limit American involvement to air support (further, IDF is stretched thin and deployment could be problematic).
Slow down a little Zineb, you might find you have declared victory a bit soon. Iran is still fighting and seems to be inflicting significant damage on the US. The Iranians have already destroyed one of the most expensive radars in the world that cost more than one billion dollars. It was an American ballistic missile long range early warning radar that could track ballistic missile launches from western China right across to Southern Russia and all of Iran. There is also plenty of other damage on American bases across the region.
The absolutely huge question for Japan and the rest of the world is, will Iran block the straits of Hormuz? If they do that then Japan, along with many other countries such as South Korea, Australia and Singapore will be in an economic disaster. China is in a far better position than Japan because not only does it produce its own oil it can import oil from Iran by rail, avoiding the Straits entirely.
I suspect we will see Iran allowing tankers going to friendly countries like China to pass through the straits but blocking all other tankers. If that happens then given a month or so Japanese diplomats will be on their knees begging Iran to allow tankers out to go to Japan.
Can you point us toward the "significant damage inflicted on the U.S."?
Of course he can't. You and I both know that. Their supreme leader is dead. It would be like if they killed Trump. The wars over no matter how much the America haters dont like it
If the Iranians killed Trump, then the US would be far better off. Vance still has his marbles. Just like Sleepy Joe, Trump is losing his marbles before our eyes. Its elder abuse to leave Trump or Sleepy Joe in office.
The Ayatollah will probably be replaced by someone younger, more capable and more radical. The only thing stopping Iran building nukes was the Ayatollah's religious belief they were a bad thing. It is quite possible the next Ayatollah will decide they need nukes. In that case they will probably build them in less than a month.
On the question of significant damage to the US, the long-range early warning radar alone is significant. With ballistic missiles the sooner you detect them the easier it is to shoot them down. The loss of this radar will be making it harder for the US to shoot down any of the longer rand missiles fired by Iran. I can't be sure the radar was hit, pictures may be fake, but it seems very likely.
As for other damage just have a look around social media. There are heaps of video clips showing US bases being hit and on fire.
No. No one can. These people just can’t wait for america to lose. It’s pathetic.
But it's already been 24 hours D.O. How many hours should we wait?
Unless Murica pulls its head out of its arse and prioritises deadly force across Hormuz. Easier said than done of course and requiring the ongoing acceptance of casualties.
Mmmmmm
Japan benefits relative to China from Middle East shock but that’s a second-order effect, not a durable realignment.
Strategic advantage gained through disruption decays fast once actors adapt.
What matters isn’t who “wins” this phase, but who can convert volatility into lasting coordination.
Most can’t.
But in fact the US has not been successful. They murdered an old man and over 80 schoolchildren.
The school children were killed by an Iran missile that misfired.
Sure. Trump didn't know Epstein either. Israel never attacks hospitals. Not only was it a deliberate attack but a double tap. Even if it was an Irananian misile, the US is still responsible. This is an unprovoked war of aggression.
Every American death caused by Iranian proxies over the past 50 years is more than enough provocation.
Every death on 10/7 was more than adequate provocation
Can I get a huff of that copium?
You’re a retard.
Stunning, evidence based retort! :)
If the author is correct about Chinese failure to protect its clients, then they will come to see, as the Americans have done, that economic and military hegemony are intertwined, and moved to remedy the situation over time.
It's clear that the Iranians cannot win this war in the conventional sense, but they don't really need to, they just need to survive.
There are very few instances of successfully achieving regime change through air power alone, and the US/Isreal have already begun to use Gaza style tactics of indiscriminate bombing of civilians in the hope of provoking regime change by internal revolt.
And don't underestimate Trump willingness to do whatever it takes to save face, including boots on the ground.
In the mean time the potential for Iran to inflict pain on the US through disruption to the global economy is potentially significant.
If the US/Isreal objective is simply to reduce Tehran to rubble, as they have done in Gaza, then they will likely succeed. For those with the biggest hammer, every problem becomes a nail. And while creating a failed state in Iran ay well suit Isreals purpose, it not clear that it's to the advantage of the Americans or their Gulf allies.
Howver, as Trump's stated geo political objectives seem to change by the day, defining success will be difficult.
Hard for the regime to survive when it's fresh out of Ayatollahs.
The dead Ayatollah had no direct involvement in war planning, and can be easily replaced. If anything his assasination was a strategic blunder, in that it has galvanised support for the rehime, which as of yet shows little sign of imploding.
He was replaced.
His replacement is dead.
His replacement was replaced.
His replacement's replacement is now reportedly dead as well.
No:) You are confusing the military hierarchy with the religious one. Yes, many of the military leaders have been killed but the Ayatollah's son, even more conservative than his father, is in line to succeed him, and as of this morning he is very much alive.
I'm a little skeptical about this analysis. China has never formalized any agreement of mutual defense that I'm aware of.
Japan is, like the US and every other country, highly reliant on Chinese outputs for their industry. China already has blocked certain critical exports to Japan and has reduced pace of delivery to USA.
I don't believe this war with Iran is doing anything to alter that dynamic. I'm really hopeful that the people of Iran will come out of this in a better position. However, China is likely treating this as a welcome distraction for the US that keeps them further away from fixing real issues re: their huge reliance on China.
Another strong piece, Zineb! The sanctions-evasion argument in particular — that Iran functioned as a live rehearsal environment for Chinese contingency planning — is an insight more people should consider.
I do wonder, though, whether focusing on Japan slightly understates the breadth of the shift you’re describing.
If Beijing’s energy flexibility tightens, if overland Belt and Road corridors through Iran stall, if the China–Russia–Iran alignment appears more transactional than durable, and if U.S. alliance commitments are seen as credible under pressure — that seems less like a “Japan win” and more like a structural gain for the entire U.S.-aligned Indo-Pacific coalition, and arguably for any country that ultimately depends on American security guarantees.
India benefits from constrained Chinese maneuvering space in the Indian Ocean. The Philippines benefits from reinforced alliance credibility in the South China Sea. Australia gains diplomatic leverage as prospective partners recalibrate their assumptions about who can actually protect clients under stress. Even Canada, which just recently sought deeper economic engagement with Beijing, may come to reassess that approach.
Japan is certainly a critical ally, and perhaps the cleanest lens through which to view the shift. But the shift actually goes far beyond just Japan.
In that sense, the bigger story may not be that Tokyo is the “big winner,” but that the alliance of free Western nations has been stress-tested — and now appears more durable than the alternative model Beijing has been marketing.
Either way, it’s a thought-provoking argument, and one that forces readers to think beyond the Middle East theater.
Japan is one of China's main strategic rivals in the Western Pacific: the two compete for military dominance in the East and South China Seas ……
But do they really compete for military dominance? C’mon. Chinese go most wherever they want and certainly see no competition for territory with the Chinese.
This essay seems designed to fit a pre-decided thesis.
And, fwiw, PM Takaichi needs to devote energies to numerous domestic challenges, especially the deficit.
no competition from the *Japanese*.
Seems like the Afghanistan portion of their railway may not prove to be all that stable either, but maybe the Chinese are showering all concerned there with goodies to buy non-disruption.
Japan does not benefit at all from this conflict.
Honeymoon is over for Taka Ichi.
Interesting take, but Japan might actually be the most structurally exposed loser here.
Japan imports nearly all of its fossil fuels, and LNG alone accounts for 36% of its electricity production. Any disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping hits Japan harder than almost any other developed economy. That means higher import costs and downward pressure on the yen which then makes energy imports even more expensive. Japan has spent years trying to carefully exit its deflationary era, the BoJ has been slowly raising rates, wages are finally moving. An external energy shock now creates a stagflation trap: raise rates to fight inflation and you crush fragile growth; hold rates and inflation runs.
The country best positioned to absorb an oil shock is one with domestic energy buffers or pricing power. Japan has neither. Hard to see the winning side from there.
Hmm. I'm not so sure that Japan has too much comfort in this regime's support. I agree with the rest and especially the reminder to everyone that China doesn't offer protection against the US, which absolutely helps Japan.
I don't know if a country that imports of all it's oil would be happy with a Middle Eastern war. Certainly weakens China, but it would be fairer to say that both countries are negatively affected.
Say what you must about POTUS47’s bombasity and inflammatory rhetoric, he’s a hell of a 3D Chess player.
“Check” to the PRC.
“Your move, Preside Xi.”
Correct
Very astute. Great read.
Yes - intelligent, bold analysis clearly expressed (China’s schemes publicly “gutted”). If there had been any wavering by China, it likely was suppressed by the speed and success of the operation (to date), combined with the reported support of other ME countries. I wonder if those countries might help out if Iranian zealots cause problems. Trump likes to get in and out fast, and here may limit American involvement to air support (further, IDF is stretched thin and deployment could be problematic).
Brilliant analysis, Zineb … the rise of Japan as it is now as a vital ally!