This is why I don’t take seriously the fools that come on here and post that Iran is “winning” or even “surviving” this war. The Iranian regime is a facade with the building behind it crumbling away—it won’t last.
Great analysis because it gets right to the personal motivations that hold any movement together. What isn't explicitly mentioned, however, is that the IRGC members are literally fighting for their lives. When this ordeal is over, the IRGC and its sympathizers will face the wrath of the suppressed population. This happens at the end of nearly every war and is never pretty. Without an occupying force, their will be chaos. All the more reason to secure the enriched uranium.
Iran lost the war, but Western media refuses to admit defeat.
The concerted effort to undermine the US war strategy because of domestic US political alliances is unAmerican.
Iran has been at war with America for almost 50 years, finally the US responded with determination but that is not the perspective of the New York Times because a US victory represents the failure of Progressive policies. This has become an ideological war in the West, technocrats that espoused the moral virtues of soft power have been exposed as frauds.
America, stay the course, your nation and people will prosper when Iran is defeated.
Keen insights. Respectfully Iran is on Plan Syria, they may fragment into warlordism (a risk of their Mosaic strategy) and then foreign agents will knock on every door purse in hand. A word on “Economics” - economics in war is your last and potentially next meal. It’s a misapplication of bourgeois life to war. North Korea hasn’t had “an economy” in 30 years but the regime is strong. If you have guns and they don’t you eat first and the last food is yours. What can happen is their aggression is caged internally.
For the record, I was not a Trump supporter until I saw the results delivered in his second presidency. I judge him by the results, not by the words.
The anti-Trump or pro-Iranian propaganda machines keep insisting that, in lieu of a formal surrender (a formal signature of the commander-in-chief on a document), Iran can be declared a victor in this war.
The war is won when the objective is reached. The US objective was not a formal surrender or regime change. The objective was to prevent ayatollahs from possessing nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them worldwide. Regime change was viewed as a bonus. The Venezuela-style softening of the regime and its less hostile stance toward the West were considered a nice bonus. To expect the regime that spent 47 years and oil riches on arming itself to collapse in 2 months would be a pipe dream.
IRGC took the Hormuz Strait hostage, and that complicates the operation. But just like the USSR collapsed under the weight of its militarism, the Iranian regime will collapse under the weight of its insatiable thirst for murder. It may take them a year, but a combination of two forces (the breakdown of the economy preceding this war, and the bravery of the Iranian people, who have had enough) will eventually bring it to an end. Of course, anti-Trumpers will still not give Trump credit or award him the victory. But the objective observers would know what pushed this regime over the edge and allowed the Iranian revolt to finish the job, all without putting a single American boot on the ground (except for the two American pilots and their rescue crews).
In June 2025 we were told that Iran’s nuclear threat had been eliminated. The latest information is that not only does Iran still have its enriched nuclear material but that it also still possesses large quantities of other armaments. Meanwhile thirteen American soldiers have been killed by Iran along with about three hundred having been wounded. Our missile stockpile has been drastically reduced, in part by using extremely expensive missiles against relatively inexpensive Iranian drones.
I don’t blame our wonderful military. The persons responsible are the civilian leaders who clearly didn’t allow the military time for adequate preparation.
Economics is overrated and force underrated. North Korea’s economy collapsed a generation ago. The regime remains strong. If you have guns and they don’t you eat first and last.
Economics and sanctions are the most misapplied bourgeois myth ever.
What can happen is their aggression is caged, internalized.
Fantastic analysis. You’ve done a masterful job of cutting through the noise to show how these economic strategic bottlenecks are reaching a point of no return. It’s rare to find such clear-eyed reporting on the intersection of domestic hardship and geopolitical strategy.
As fuel and oil inventories deteriorate in the West, Trump will take pressure from many countries. A big question: how far can/will all these countries economies and daily life be able to endure the lockdown of the Strait?
Pressure on Trump could include cutting deals with Iran and/or Russia, and Trump willingness to preside over collapse of economy of one/many allies (which would impact his legacy, something all presidents care about). I don’t claim to know any or all the specific pressures that can be applied, but I think zero is not the number.
James Carville coined the phrase « It’s the economy,stupid » in 1992 and it definitely should apply in the situation at hand. As long as the Trump administration stays focused and leaves China to cope with the fallout, things should evolve in the correct trajectory. Well written article Ms. Zineb Riboua, as always.
This lady is a gem.
She is!
This is why I don’t take seriously the fools that come on here and post that Iran is “winning” or even “surviving” this war. The Iranian regime is a facade with the building behind it crumbling away—it won’t last.
Plan Syria. We’re really getting good at this…
Thank you very much for the precise, logical, and well-structured analysis. I can understand better about current situation
Great analysis because it gets right to the personal motivations that hold any movement together. What isn't explicitly mentioned, however, is that the IRGC members are literally fighting for their lives. When this ordeal is over, the IRGC and its sympathizers will face the wrath of the suppressed population. This happens at the end of nearly every war and is never pretty. Without an occupying force, their will be chaos. All the more reason to secure the enriched uranium.
North Korea. Their “economy” collapsed decades ago, the regime is strong. However their aggression is caged internally.
keep preaching the truth, Zineb.
Iran lost the war, but Western media refuses to admit defeat.
The concerted effort to undermine the US war strategy because of domestic US political alliances is unAmerican.
Iran has been at war with America for almost 50 years, finally the US responded with determination but that is not the perspective of the New York Times because a US victory represents the failure of Progressive policies. This has become an ideological war in the West, technocrats that espoused the moral virtues of soft power have been exposed as frauds.
America, stay the course, your nation and people will prosper when Iran is defeated.
Excellent.
Keen insights. Respectfully Iran is on Plan Syria, they may fragment into warlordism (a risk of their Mosaic strategy) and then foreign agents will knock on every door purse in hand. A word on “Economics” - economics in war is your last and potentially next meal. It’s a misapplication of bourgeois life to war. North Korea hasn’t had “an economy” in 30 years but the regime is strong. If you have guns and they don’t you eat first and the last food is yours. What can happen is their aggression is caged internally.
For the record, I was not a Trump supporter until I saw the results delivered in his second presidency. I judge him by the results, not by the words.
The anti-Trump or pro-Iranian propaganda machines keep insisting that, in lieu of a formal surrender (a formal signature of the commander-in-chief on a document), Iran can be declared a victor in this war.
The war is won when the objective is reached. The US objective was not a formal surrender or regime change. The objective was to prevent ayatollahs from possessing nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them worldwide. Regime change was viewed as a bonus. The Venezuela-style softening of the regime and its less hostile stance toward the West were considered a nice bonus. To expect the regime that spent 47 years and oil riches on arming itself to collapse in 2 months would be a pipe dream.
IRGC took the Hormuz Strait hostage, and that complicates the operation. But just like the USSR collapsed under the weight of its militarism, the Iranian regime will collapse under the weight of its insatiable thirst for murder. It may take them a year, but a combination of two forces (the breakdown of the economy preceding this war, and the bravery of the Iranian people, who have had enough) will eventually bring it to an end. Of course, anti-Trumpers will still not give Trump credit or award him the victory. But the objective observers would know what pushed this regime over the edge and allowed the Iranian revolt to finish the job, all without putting a single American boot on the ground (except for the two American pilots and their rescue crews).
In June 2025 we were told that Iran’s nuclear threat had been eliminated. The latest information is that not only does Iran still have its enriched nuclear material but that it also still possesses large quantities of other armaments. Meanwhile thirteen American soldiers have been killed by Iran along with about three hundred having been wounded. Our missile stockpile has been drastically reduced, in part by using extremely expensive missiles against relatively inexpensive Iranian drones.
I don’t blame our wonderful military. The persons responsible are the civilian leaders who clearly didn’t allow the military time for adequate preparation.
Economics is overrated and force underrated. North Korea’s economy collapsed a generation ago. The regime remains strong. If you have guns and they don’t you eat first and last.
Economics and sanctions are the most misapplied bourgeois myth ever.
What can happen is their aggression is caged, internalized.
Fantastic analysis. You’ve done a masterful job of cutting through the noise to show how these economic strategic bottlenecks are reaching a point of no return. It’s rare to find such clear-eyed reporting on the intersection of domestic hardship and geopolitical strategy.
As fuel and oil inventories deteriorate in the West, Trump will take pressure from many countries. A big question: how far can/will all these countries economies and daily life be able to endure the lockdown of the Strait?
1) Pressure Trump?
2) If the other countries can’t endure it what can they do? China and Russia can act against us.
Can, not will.
Pressure on Trump could include cutting deals with Iran and/or Russia, and Trump willingness to preside over collapse of economy of one/many allies (which would impact his legacy, something all presidents care about). I don’t claim to know any or all the specific pressures that can be applied, but I think zero is not the number.
Trump’s been arrested, prosecuted, shot and keeps coming- he only cares about one country as he should, as we all should look after our own.
His legacy seriously doesn’t concern him.
Never mind other countries that took advantage of us.
His legacy in this instance is the petrodollar is American petroleum.
Other countries couldn’t wreck their own economies fast enough with green policies and we’re just not joining them in mass suicide.
Go Zineb!!
Message to Prof. Robert Pape: Put that in your ‘Strategic Escalation Theory’ pipe and smoke it! 😁
Economy is overweighted next to force and raw power. Economically North Korea collapsed a generation ago.
You're not even a very interesting bot! Write some new material, already!
I ‘ll take you on your bot word of honor. BTW you’re in Ecuador so you’re out. Stay out.
We need Zineb for her accurate vision of pseudo-intellectuals from the Third World!
James Carville coined the phrase « It’s the economy,stupid » in 1992 and it definitely should apply in the situation at hand. As long as the Trump administration stays focused and leaves China to cope with the fallout, things should evolve in the correct trajectory. Well written article Ms. Zineb Riboua, as always.