This is why I don’t take seriously the fools that come on here and post that Iran is “winning” or even “surviving” this war. The Iranian regime is a facade with the building behind it crumbling away—it won’t last.
Great analysis because it gets right to the personal motivations that hold any movement together. What isn't explicitly mentioned, however, is that the IRGC members are literally fighting for their lives. When this ordeal is over, the IRGC and its sympathizers will face the wrath of the suppressed population. This happens at the end of nearly every war and is never pretty. Without an occupying force, their will be chaos. All the more reason to secure the enriched uranium.
James Carville coined the phrase « It’s the economy,stupid » in 1992 and it definitely should apply in the situation at hand. As long as the Trump administration stays focused and leaves China to cope with the fallout, things should evolve in the correct trajectory. Well written article Ms. Zineb Riboua, as always.
they don't care about the economy. They don't care about the suffering or rioting of their own people. They are prepared to murder as many of them as is needed. All they do care about is their own survival , in power. They will retreat to caves if need be. That's what you are dealing with and no amount of economic nor even bombing pressure will dislodge them. It's clear that Israel completely miscalculated and Trump went along or was convinced by their miscalculations. As reported by the NYT in the fateful meeting, US military and intelligence officials clearly understood this, telling Trump that the Israelis always overpromise and underdeliver. If you are going to stir up this particular hornet's nest you have to be prepared to completely eliminate it and Trump never had the political capital to go that far. So now he's stuck .. and fucked.
They don’t care, but ultimately that fact may prove irrelevant. “They” are not going to have the resources to “murder as many of them as is needed.” The number “needed” will be beyond their ability to achieve, because the henchmen who must do the grim work will no longer show up. They’re not getting paid.
This is what Riboua is laying out. If she’s right. But the claim “no amount of economic pressure will dislodge them” doesn’t make sense. There is an amount that *will*.
Niall Ferguson argues that they may well have more sources of income than Riboua suggests. We’ll see.
I don’t think the Trump team is stuck, and I don’t think this war is happening because the Israelis “lured the US in.” It’s a very risky move, yes, but strategically coherent.
their stocks of not just missiles but machine gun rifles and ammo hasn't been particularly degraded (not of small arms weaponry). Sure there is an amount that will - but amount would result in a death and suffering of the PEOPLE of Iran, that international pressure, and even domestic political pressure would not assuage. So again, he's stuck in a trap, far more so than the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard. We've already seen based on reporting of US peace proposals that even their "declared victory" will look like something completely else altogether.
again, the amount of pain the US would need to achieve the toppling of the regime is higher than the amount of pain that both domestic opinion and international opinion would allow on Iran's civilian population. Not even taking into account that Iranians who hate current regime would either band together in agony or hate the Americans just as much. It's a trap he put himself in. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/05/11/iran-war-is-trap-trump-built-himself/?
This lady is a gem.
This is why I don’t take seriously the fools that come on here and post that Iran is “winning” or even “surviving” this war. The Iranian regime is a facade with the building behind it crumbling away—it won’t last.
Thank you very much for the precise, logical, and well-structured analysis. I can understand better about current situation
Excellent.
keep preaching the truth, Zineb.
Great analysis because it gets right to the personal motivations that hold any movement together. What isn't explicitly mentioned, however, is that the IRGC members are literally fighting for their lives. When this ordeal is over, the IRGC and its sympathizers will face the wrath of the suppressed population. This happens at the end of nearly every war and is never pretty. Without an occupying force, their will be chaos. All the more reason to secure the enriched uranium.
James Carville coined the phrase « It’s the economy,stupid » in 1992 and it definitely should apply in the situation at hand. As long as the Trump administration stays focused and leaves China to cope with the fallout, things should evolve in the correct trajectory. Well written article Ms. Zineb Riboua, as always.
they don't care about the economy. They don't care about the suffering or rioting of their own people. They are prepared to murder as many of them as is needed. All they do care about is their own survival , in power. They will retreat to caves if need be. That's what you are dealing with and no amount of economic nor even bombing pressure will dislodge them. It's clear that Israel completely miscalculated and Trump went along or was convinced by their miscalculations. As reported by the NYT in the fateful meeting, US military and intelligence officials clearly understood this, telling Trump that the Israelis always overpromise and underdeliver. If you are going to stir up this particular hornet's nest you have to be prepared to completely eliminate it and Trump never had the political capital to go that far. So now he's stuck .. and fucked.
They don’t care, but ultimately that fact may prove irrelevant. “They” are not going to have the resources to “murder as many of them as is needed.” The number “needed” will be beyond their ability to achieve, because the henchmen who must do the grim work will no longer show up. They’re not getting paid.
This is what Riboua is laying out. If she’s right. But the claim “no amount of economic pressure will dislodge them” doesn’t make sense. There is an amount that *will*.
Niall Ferguson argues that they may well have more sources of income than Riboua suggests. We’ll see.
I don’t think the Trump team is stuck, and I don’t think this war is happening because the Israelis “lured the US in.” It’s a very risky move, yes, but strategically coherent.
their stocks of not just missiles but machine gun rifles and ammo hasn't been particularly degraded (not of small arms weaponry). Sure there is an amount that will - but amount would result in a death and suffering of the PEOPLE of Iran, that international pressure, and even domestic political pressure would not assuage. So again, he's stuck in a trap, far more so than the mullahs and Revolutionary Guard. We've already seen based on reporting of US peace proposals that even their "declared victory" will look like something completely else altogether.
I get the point. But again, you need men using the guns. At some point, as cracks begin to widen, these men may well shift sides.
I see the Trump team facing hard choices, but don’t see the US “trapped.”
again, the amount of pain the US would need to achieve the toppling of the regime is higher than the amount of pain that both domestic opinion and international opinion would allow on Iran's civilian population. Not even taking into account that Iranians who hate current regime would either band together in agony or hate the Americans just as much. It's a trap he put himself in. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/05/11/iran-war-is-trap-trump-built-himself/?
The only trap is the one the IRGC is facing.
which is? They're exporting things via the Caspian Sea and that will only grow. and if they are trapped, why are they the ones DICTATING terms? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/the-us-blockade-of-iran-is-a-means-not-an-end?vcrmeid=aL3NXDOHbE61Pq9ekFtlIA&vcrmiid=EbVB-13UcEKcyXU-C1Un5w