Zineb, you’re one of the very best writing on this conflict. Very solid analysis … Mike Doran and Lee Smith are your peers in terms of literate comment, insight and reasoned overview … just keep it up!
"Iran’s model of power projection, energy coercion, and ideological subversion had been systematically depriving the Middle East of the economic integration and security cooperation that its geography and resources would otherwise permit. The war has not created that consensus. It has confirmed it." This basically says it all. Great brave post thank you for your honesty.
Which is breathtaking in its complete confidence. Let’s revisit it in a few weeks and see how well its predictions held.
The President was warned that if he attacked Iran, Iran would close the strait. He dismissed this concern airily. It won’t happen, and if it does the navy will take care of it. We all know what happened: the President has been pleading with Europe and China to reopen the strait, insulting them when they refuse. He had no plan, only heedless overconfidence.
This post says the US rescue of a downed aviator is evidence of complete military dominance. Left out is that Iran shot down the F-15 in the first place. The President had bragged a few days before that the US was utterly dominant in the Iranian skies. A few days later we could count over a billion in damage to other US planes in a brief window, including two A-10s and a very expensive AWAC.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Iran. But I do know this post is wildly one-sided in its optimism.
Put it another way: if things are going so well in Iran, why is the president rage-posting in the morning on Easter Sunday, frustrated beyond belief that Iran hasn’t given up yet?
Obviously, the US has air superiority. It is bombing everything and everything. But what is being accomplished?
People make grand pronouncements - Iran is about to crumble, and we have destroyed its missiles and drones. Doesn’t look that way. The E-3 was blown up on a US airfield. The US embassy in Riyad was hit.
Also, I wonder why were they, suddenly, able to achieve these shoot downs. How much help are the Russians now giving them?
Last week Israel destroyed the 3 largest steel plants in Iran, the largest steel producer in the Middle East. They account for about 2% of Iran's GDP.
The last few days the two largest petrochemical plants were destroyed, accounting for 85% of Iran's petrochemical (not crude oil) exports.
Significant numbers of senior IRGC officers are being killed every week.
What is being accomplished is significant destruction of Iran's economy, which was already in terrible shape during the January demonstrations. Iranian official statistics show a 70% increase in food prices during 2025, before this war. Bet they haven't improved since.
Once the war ends, let's see how Iranians fee and how strong the Basij, they of the newly-unmanned chechpoints, are to confront them, knowing that demonstrators now have the two most powerful airforces in the Middle East on their side.
Yes. Many tactical successes. But what is being accomplished strategically?
We can speculate about what may happen in the future. Maybe the Iranian people will rise up, and maybe the Iranian state will collapse. Or maybe the rebel leaders have all been killed and the regime remains in power - or Iran fights a civil war. For sure the decapitation strategy has empowered the most radical and intransigent members of the regime. I can say I’m very skeptical that American or Israeli air power could turn the tide in a civil war being fought on the streets with small arms.
What we can say for certain concerns the present: the strait remains closed and economic damage is mounting; US munitions are being depleted in a wildly expensive war that won’t be paid for, while the nation already drowns in debt; the US has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil, the Iranians levy a toll on the few ships that they allow through, and there is no viable plan to divest them of control; we continue to alienate and infuriate countries that were once our allies or at least neutral.
Iran was never a threat to the United States. China is. Russia is. We’ve taken our eye off the ball.
We have a $1T military budget fighting a $9B military budget with the $1T military begging NATO to rescue the after the $1T started the conflict. Why do you think these EU countries are denying the US/Israel flyover permission? Because Trump/Israel started this so it is their problem.
No sane person looks at what Israel and the US military have accomplished, air superiority in 48 hours (twice, now and in the 12 Day War) and comes thinking that Europe is in any way capable of helping or "rescuing" them.
Remember that Strait of Hormuz affects mainly China, then rest of Asia, then Europe and has no effect on the US. In fact, the US is, by far, the world's top oil and gas producer and the third largest exporter so, if anything, keeping the Strait closed strengthens America's grip on the world's oil and gas market.
European midgets are only making excuses to cover the pathetic state of their military.
As long as Iran is China's bitch with the Belt and Road Initiative, it's a threat to the US. But not anymore.
While blocking the strait has a smaller effect on America than other countries, it's simply wrong to say it has "no effect". Anybody who's bought gas over the last couple of weeks, or fertilizer made from petrochemicals can tell you that. Gas is up about a dollar a gallon at the pump, and higher costs are coming - possibly much higher if the President makes good on his threats and Iran does the same.
The reason is not complicated and even suggested in what you wrote: the US exports oil. Which means American producers won't sell Brent to Americans at the prewar price of $65 a barrel if they can sail it to Asia and sell at $110. Americans who want Brent and products refined from it will have to bid against other buyers, and will pay more unless Trump is planning to impose an export ban or nationalize the industry. No sign of that.
The strait also transits other important ingredients, like lithium, used to make computer chips.
But yes, other countries will suffer even more. That might be an occasion to ask whether it was strategically smart or incredibly stupid to impose huge costs on other countries for the sake of an entirely unecessary war against Iran - one they were not consulted about at all. That bill will come due later.
Look at the difference in budgets. Geez. Hell Iran has held off someone who spends 100x the money on military and still whines for help. We may have the fancy hardware but are behind in smarts. As far as the strait mainly affecting China you are clueless. Look at the price of gasoline here. Oil is a global commodity. You restrict China's supplier they go elsewhere for oil and maybe affect someone else's economy. Clueless people like yourseLf are why sanctions on Russia's oil didn't 2ork. If we have such a large portion of market why do we steal oil from other countries? We had to destroy Nordstrom to get the EU market for LNG.
I hope this is correct.. time will tell. It is now must very clear to the GCC states that Iran could and would easily hold them hostage absent US protection and IDF dominance in the ME. The GCC's cannot be defended by Russia,
China or the euro states. Iran will dominate the region unless the current regime is defeated and they know it. Not clear how much useful military power they can bring to bear on Iran but they could and should neutralize the Houthis.
What you call begging normal rational people call pointing out to Europe and China that they need Hormuz open. We do not although it would help prices. Europe is screwed if Hormuz does not reopen ASAP. They are screwed middle/long term anyway because of their idiotic obsession with carbon.
You suggest that Trump’s approach to other nations is ““normal” and “rational” and merely “pointing out” to them the realities of their position. I submit that he has been stamping his feet and bellowing with rage. He’s reiterated his threats to take Greenland and leave NATO, and intimated he might pull troops from South Korea and Japan while praising the cooperation he’s getting from the Gulf States. Is that what a “normal rational person” would do? It’s not.
Of course Europe wants the strait open. That doesn’t mean they want it done on his terms and timetable - and they certainly don’t want him as their lead negotiator, knowing he will never consider their needs. They have to face voters in their countries, not Republican primary opponents, and they have their own national interests to consider.
Probably the most absurd moment of the last few weeks came when Trump promised to send US navy vessels to escort tankers, was told by his advisers this was too dangerous, and then he accused the Europeans of cowardice for failing to send their ships!
He was heedless and terribly foolish to start this war without any plans for what he would do if Iran chose to close the strait. Now we all have to live with the consequences.
What an insightful article, yet another from Zineb Riboua's substack!
What is starting to surprise me is that so many articles are now framing this as a confrontation between the IRGC and the US+Israel+others. All the successful eliminations of senior figures are from the IRGC.
Where is Iran's regular army, the only counterweight to the IRGC internally in Iran? Have they become bystanders to the conflict? Are they biding their time to take over?
The piece presents the war as a clean American strategic success while treating every Iranian action as a mistake and every American action as a masterstroke. This is not analysis — it is advocacy dressed as analysis.
Wow, not a wasted word. This piece kicks like a mule. Your analytical savvy has been conjoined with a forceful eloquence that takes your writing to a whole new level. More like this...
This Is really about the banking mafia, just like their attack and destruction of Gaddafi because he didn’t want or need their fraudulent business of usury on their fiat currencies. Their fiat currency doesn’t cost anything to them and they take by deception to their advantage and benefit. This is why JFK wanted to end the monopoly of the Federal Reserve and their fraudulent business.
The world needs Iran otherwise these banking parasites will continue to destroy and make every one their debt slave to serve them.
There is no debt there never was for their claim does not qualify the criteria of a debt.
Trump / corporate USA are nothing more than pirates …. they invade Greenland and make claims they hold no respect for international laws. Now trump wants out of NATO then they can continue to pillage what ever pleases them.
It's so amusing when people who have no clue about anything related to economics or money nonetheless attempt to throw around economic jargon in an attempt to sound smart to their fellow ignoremuses.
Asymmetric warfare requires constraint on the stronger power. As that constraint in America was entirely American ideology in any real terms , when Americans changed their mind the constraint vanished.
So this is a grand strategy to withdraw from responsibility for the Middle East? Why didn’t it just withdraw in the first place then? What is gained from the war? Many of the missiles threatening Israel have been destroyed, but Israel was already ready to act by itself. Is the relationship with the Gulf states going to be improved? That remains to be seen and probably depends on a total victory you still seem confident of.
Meanwhile even US-allied Asian countries are ready to quietly pay the troll to get their oil past. This may not be a total loss of US influence in East Asia, but doesn’t lend credibility to the idea that the US protects global maritime commerce, and a convergence on this issue at least between China and other Asian countries, though not necessarily PRC dominance on other issues.
PRC was never totally pro-Iran anyway; proud of brokering a Saudi-Iran reconciliation 3 years ago, and getting more oil from Saudi Arabia and others than from Iran.
" Is the relationship with the Gulf states going to be improved?"
Definitely: now the Gulf monarchies have strong common interests with the US and Israel in containing Iran.
That Qatar, so friendly to Iran, is now expelling Iranian diplomats in public spats is telling.
All the infrastructure of sanctions evasion built around Gulf trading houses and opaque shell companies is at risk now that the host countries experience directly what Iranian sanctions evasion enabled.
Michael Every asks, "What is GDP for?" When competing with a mercantilist China, why does the world require the United States pay to protect global commerce? When Trump told the UK, Europeans to go get their own oil, he is absolutely saying US GDP is not going to backstop the world anymore.
I will be pleased when the Israelis stand down from their agenda of dismembering Iran and start cooperating with US strategic aims. I will be impressed when the Strait is reopened, the democracy we destroyed in 1953 is restored, and the people of Iran begin to thrive and prosper as they should. Until then, not pleased, and not impressed.
The Shah of Iran, in power since 1941, **appointed** Mohammed Mossadegh, a senior prince of the Qajjar dynasty as PM in 1953. Shortly after, Mossadegh called an election and then stopped the vote count as soon as it showed him ahead. So much for democracy.
After Mossadegh was removed and retired to his opulent family estate in Ahmedabad, the Shah was free to launch his White Revolution, which bypassed Mossadegh's clerical allies by emancipating Iranian women and giving them the right to vote, 7 years before Swiss women.
All and more in Prof Ali Ansari's "Modern Iran since 1797" or in his substack
SAVAK was the Shah's secret police which, at American urging, focused on identifying, interrogating and suppressing mainly members of Tudeh, Iran's Communist Party.
Regrettably, this led them to take a lighter touch towards the Islamist groups, although they did help slaughter a few thousand Islamists during the 1963 Shiraz riots instigated by Ayatollah Khomeini after the Shah granted Iranian women the right to vote.
The patriotic spirit and zealous devotion to Iran of the old SAVAK will be needed again if the Islamic Republic is overthrown to prevent any recurrence of Islamic fundamentalism.
Asked to “clear the Strait” , the Europeans and Chinese etc will just pay to Iran their toll. Much cheaper short and long term, but bad news for Israel (in particular) and US. At any rate, it won't look like the US has “won”.
The war is costing Iran about $3.3 billion a month in lost oil export income. If they were to comply with U.S. demands, that would come back right away PLUS another $1 billion from the ending of various sanctions and discounts. They are leaving a lot of money on the table.
It's actually worse, because some of the expenses associated with their oil industry are amortized capital costs. Look at just the cash flow, and it's more like $5 billion a month. This is solely on the oil side, and nothing else. This war is ruinous for them. Iranians are far from stupid. Someone there has to be adding it up.
I really like this piece and I’ve shared it in multiple places such as telegraph comments on articles from ignorant UK journalists. That being said at this exact point in time it seems Iran have outmanoeuvred Trump. This ceasefire benefits Iran and weakens US standing in the Middle East as their allies continue to be attacked. Currently, the main impact is to prevent Trump from delivering on his promise to destroy their infrastructure. This is the threat that brought them to the table but the negotiations at the table currently shows very limited benefits to the US. Their bases not being struck is not a big deal. There weren’t even troops in those bases. Trump wants an exit. Unlike the west’s idiot elite I do believe Trump has a strategy and that a successful delivery of that strategy would make him one of the greatest leaders the West has ever seen, but this is crunch time!
Zineb, you’re one of the very best writing on this conflict. Very solid analysis … Mike Doran and Lee Smith are your peers in terms of literate comment, insight and reasoned overview … just keep it up!
Very kinf of you! Thank you.
Spot on!
"Iran’s model of power projection, energy coercion, and ideological subversion had been systematically depriving the Middle East of the economic integration and security cooperation that its geography and resources would otherwise permit. The war has not created that consensus. It has confirmed it." This basically says it all. Great brave post thank you for your honesty.
The Trump Administration doesn’t even have a strategy.
Except for the one laid out here in this very article.
Which is breathtaking in its complete confidence. Let’s revisit it in a few weeks and see how well its predictions held.
The President was warned that if he attacked Iran, Iran would close the strait. He dismissed this concern airily. It won’t happen, and if it does the navy will take care of it. We all know what happened: the President has been pleading with Europe and China to reopen the strait, insulting them when they refuse. He had no plan, only heedless overconfidence.
This post says the US rescue of a downed aviator is evidence of complete military dominance. Left out is that Iran shot down the F-15 in the first place. The President had bragged a few days before that the US was utterly dominant in the Iranian skies. A few days later we could count over a billion in damage to other US planes in a brief window, including two A-10s and a very expensive AWAC.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Iran. But I do know this post is wildly one-sided in its optimism.
Put it another way: if things are going so well in Iran, why is the president rage-posting in the morning on Easter Sunday, frustrated beyond belief that Iran hasn’t given up yet?
" Left out is that Iran shot down the F-15 in the first place"
Let's see, 15,000 sorties by the US, 15,000 sorties by the Israelis, over 35 days and a grand total of one F15 + one A10 shot down.
Wow! Looks like an impressive record for Iranian air defense, no doubt its chief is looking forward to a well-deserved promotion.
Obviously, the US has air superiority. It is bombing everything and everything. But what is being accomplished?
People make grand pronouncements - Iran is about to crumble, and we have destroyed its missiles and drones. Doesn’t look that way. The E-3 was blown up on a US airfield. The US embassy in Riyad was hit.
Also, I wonder why were they, suddenly, able to achieve these shoot downs. How much help are the Russians now giving them?
What is being accomplished, indeed?
Last week Israel destroyed the 3 largest steel plants in Iran, the largest steel producer in the Middle East. They account for about 2% of Iran's GDP.
The last few days the two largest petrochemical plants were destroyed, accounting for 85% of Iran's petrochemical (not crude oil) exports.
Significant numbers of senior IRGC officers are being killed every week.
What is being accomplished is significant destruction of Iran's economy, which was already in terrible shape during the January demonstrations. Iranian official statistics show a 70% increase in food prices during 2025, before this war. Bet they haven't improved since.
Once the war ends, let's see how Iranians fee and how strong the Basij, they of the newly-unmanned chechpoints, are to confront them, knowing that demonstrators now have the two most powerful airforces in the Middle East on their side.
Yes. Many tactical successes. But what is being accomplished strategically?
We can speculate about what may happen in the future. Maybe the Iranian people will rise up, and maybe the Iranian state will collapse. Or maybe the rebel leaders have all been killed and the regime remains in power - or Iran fights a civil war. For sure the decapitation strategy has empowered the most radical and intransigent members of the regime. I can say I’m very skeptical that American or Israeli air power could turn the tide in a civil war being fought on the streets with small arms.
What we can say for certain concerns the present: the strait remains closed and economic damage is mounting; US munitions are being depleted in a wildly expensive war that won’t be paid for, while the nation already drowns in debt; the US has lifted sanctions on Iranian oil, the Iranians levy a toll on the few ships that they allow through, and there is no viable plan to divest them of control; we continue to alienate and infuriate countries that were once our allies or at least neutral.
Iran was never a threat to the United States. China is. Russia is. We’ve taken our eye off the ball.
We have a $1T military budget fighting a $9B military budget with the $1T military begging NATO to rescue the after the $1T started the conflict. Why do you think these EU countries are denying the US/Israel flyover permission? Because Trump/Israel started this so it is their problem.
No sane person looks at what Israel and the US military have accomplished, air superiority in 48 hours (twice, now and in the 12 Day War) and comes thinking that Europe is in any way capable of helping or "rescuing" them.
Remember that Strait of Hormuz affects mainly China, then rest of Asia, then Europe and has no effect on the US. In fact, the US is, by far, the world's top oil and gas producer and the third largest exporter so, if anything, keeping the Strait closed strengthens America's grip on the world's oil and gas market.
European midgets are only making excuses to cover the pathetic state of their military.
As long as Iran is China's bitch with the Belt and Road Initiative, it's a threat to the US. But not anymore.
While blocking the strait has a smaller effect on America than other countries, it's simply wrong to say it has "no effect". Anybody who's bought gas over the last couple of weeks, or fertilizer made from petrochemicals can tell you that. Gas is up about a dollar a gallon at the pump, and higher costs are coming - possibly much higher if the President makes good on his threats and Iran does the same.
The reason is not complicated and even suggested in what you wrote: the US exports oil. Which means American producers won't sell Brent to Americans at the prewar price of $65 a barrel if they can sail it to Asia and sell at $110. Americans who want Brent and products refined from it will have to bid against other buyers, and will pay more unless Trump is planning to impose an export ban or nationalize the industry. No sign of that.
The strait also transits other important ingredients, like lithium, used to make computer chips.
But yes, other countries will suffer even more. That might be an occasion to ask whether it was strategically smart or incredibly stupid to impose huge costs on other countries for the sake of an entirely unecessary war against Iran - one they were not consulted about at all. That bill will come due later.
Look at the difference in budgets. Geez. Hell Iran has held off someone who spends 100x the money on military and still whines for help. We may have the fancy hardware but are behind in smarts. As far as the strait mainly affecting China you are clueless. Look at the price of gasoline here. Oil is a global commodity. You restrict China's supplier they go elsewhere for oil and maybe affect someone else's economy. Clueless people like yourseLf are why sanctions on Russia's oil didn't 2ork. If we have such a large portion of market why do we steal oil from other countries? We had to destroy Nordstrom to get the EU market for LNG.
I hope this is correct.. time will tell. It is now must very clear to the GCC states that Iran could and would easily hold them hostage absent US protection and IDF dominance in the ME. The GCC's cannot be defended by Russia,
China or the euro states. Iran will dominate the region unless the current regime is defeated and they know it. Not clear how much useful military power they can bring to bear on Iran but they could and should neutralize the Houthis.
China has no control over the strait
I didn’t say it does. I said Trump begged them to help open it - which he did. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-warns-nato-faces-very-bad-future-if-allies-fail-help-us-iran-ft-reports-2026-03-16/
What you call begging normal rational people call pointing out to Europe and China that they need Hormuz open. We do not although it would help prices. Europe is screwed if Hormuz does not reopen ASAP. They are screwed middle/long term anyway because of their idiotic obsession with carbon.
You suggest that Trump’s approach to other nations is ““normal” and “rational” and merely “pointing out” to them the realities of their position. I submit that he has been stamping his feet and bellowing with rage. He’s reiterated his threats to take Greenland and leave NATO, and intimated he might pull troops from South Korea and Japan while praising the cooperation he’s getting from the Gulf States. Is that what a “normal rational person” would do? It’s not.
Of course Europe wants the strait open. That doesn’t mean they want it done on his terms and timetable - and they certainly don’t want him as their lead negotiator, knowing he will never consider their needs. They have to face voters in their countries, not Republican primary opponents, and they have their own national interests to consider.
Probably the most absurd moment of the last few weeks came when Trump promised to send US navy vessels to escort tankers, was told by his advisers this was too dangerous, and then he accused the Europeans of cowardice for failing to send their ships!
He was heedless and terribly foolish to start this war without any plans for what he would do if Iran chose to close the strait. Now we all have to live with the consequences.
Reading. How does it work?
Keep talking out your ass and exposing your complete ignorance.
You want that to be the case. But you're wrong.
What an insightful article, yet another from Zineb Riboua's substack!
What is starting to surprise me is that so many articles are now framing this as a confrontation between the IRGC and the US+Israel+others. All the successful eliminations of senior figures are from the IRGC.
Where is Iran's regular army, the only counterweight to the IRGC internally in Iran? Have they become bystanders to the conflict? Are they biding their time to take over?
The piece presents the war as a clean American strategic success while treating every Iranian action as a mistake and every American action as a masterstroke. This is not analysis — it is advocacy dressed as analysis.
A well-written piece. There are so many poor writers who consider themselves professionals—but it takes a long time to learn to write well.
It's, to say the least, very optimistic compared to most of the stuff one can read around. I hope you are right. Time will tell.
Wow, not a wasted word. This piece kicks like a mule. Your analytical savvy has been conjoined with a forceful eloquence that takes your writing to a whole new level. More like this...
This Is really about the banking mafia, just like their attack and destruction of Gaddafi because he didn’t want or need their fraudulent business of usury on their fiat currencies. Their fiat currency doesn’t cost anything to them and they take by deception to their advantage and benefit. This is why JFK wanted to end the monopoly of the Federal Reserve and their fraudulent business.
The world needs Iran otherwise these banking parasites will continue to destroy and make every one their debt slave to serve them.
There is no debt there never was for their claim does not qualify the criteria of a debt.
Trump / corporate USA are nothing more than pirates …. they invade Greenland and make claims they hold no respect for international laws. Now trump wants out of NATO then they can continue to pillage what ever pleases them.
It's so amusing when people who have no clue about anything related to economics or money nonetheless attempt to throw around economic jargon in an attempt to sound smart to their fellow ignoremuses.
It seems those that support blatant fraud via fraudulent loans of fiat currencies are doomed to be debt slaves.
The practice of usury on a fiat currency is blatant fraud!
Asymmetric warfare requires constraint on the stronger power. As that constraint in America was entirely American ideology in any real terms , when Americans changed their mind the constraint vanished.
There is nothing more ephemeral than an idea.
Well well... If the US has such a great strategy, why is Donald Trump still stating that the US and Iran are negotiating at this time?
From Radio Free Europe: https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2026/04/mil-260406-rferl01.htm
So this is a grand strategy to withdraw from responsibility for the Middle East? Why didn’t it just withdraw in the first place then? What is gained from the war? Many of the missiles threatening Israel have been destroyed, but Israel was already ready to act by itself. Is the relationship with the Gulf states going to be improved? That remains to be seen and probably depends on a total victory you still seem confident of.
Meanwhile even US-allied Asian countries are ready to quietly pay the troll to get their oil past. This may not be a total loss of US influence in East Asia, but doesn’t lend credibility to the idea that the US protects global maritime commerce, and a convergence on this issue at least between China and other Asian countries, though not necessarily PRC dominance on other issues.
PRC was never totally pro-Iran anyway; proud of brokering a Saudi-Iran reconciliation 3 years ago, and getting more oil from Saudi Arabia and others than from Iran.
" Is the relationship with the Gulf states going to be improved?"
Definitely: now the Gulf monarchies have strong common interests with the US and Israel in containing Iran.
That Qatar, so friendly to Iran, is now expelling Iranian diplomats in public spats is telling.
All the infrastructure of sanctions evasion built around Gulf trading houses and opaque shell companies is at risk now that the host countries experience directly what Iranian sanctions evasion enabled.
Michael Every asks, "What is GDP for?" When competing with a mercantilist China, why does the world require the United States pay to protect global commerce? When Trump told the UK, Europeans to go get their own oil, he is absolutely saying US GDP is not going to backstop the world anymore.
I will be pleased when the Israelis stand down from their agenda of dismembering Iran and start cooperating with US strategic aims. I will be impressed when the Strait is reopened, the democracy we destroyed in 1953 is restored, and the people of Iran begin to thrive and prosper as they should. Until then, not pleased, and not impressed.
"the democracy we destroyed in 1953 is restored"
Allow me to assist the historically-deficient:
The Shah of Iran, in power since 1941, **appointed** Mohammed Mossadegh, a senior prince of the Qajjar dynasty as PM in 1953. Shortly after, Mossadegh called an election and then stopped the vote count as soon as it showed him ahead. So much for democracy.
After Mossadegh was removed and retired to his opulent family estate in Ahmedabad, the Shah was free to launch his White Revolution, which bypassed Mossadegh's clerical allies by emancipating Iranian women and giving them the right to vote, 7 years before Swiss women.
All and more in Prof Ali Ansari's "Modern Iran since 1797" or in his substack
https://iranshahr.substack.com/
Will you enlighten us about the SAVAK, Mr historically-aware?
SAVAK was the Shah's secret police which, at American urging, focused on identifying, interrogating and suppressing mainly members of Tudeh, Iran's Communist Party.
Regrettably, this led them to take a lighter touch towards the Islamist groups, although they did help slaughter a few thousand Islamists during the 1963 Shiraz riots instigated by Ayatollah Khomeini after the Shah granted Iranian women the right to vote.
The patriotic spirit and zealous devotion to Iran of the old SAVAK will be needed again if the Islamic Republic is overthrown to prevent any recurrence of Islamic fundamentalism.
Thanks—
“Never argue with stupid people. They will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience” - Mark Twain
Asked to “clear the Strait” , the Europeans and Chinese etc will just pay to Iran their toll. Much cheaper short and long term, but bad news for Israel (in particular) and US. At any rate, it won't look like the US has “won”.
The war is costing Iran about $3.3 billion a month in lost oil export income. If they were to comply with U.S. demands, that would come back right away PLUS another $1 billion from the ending of various sanctions and discounts. They are leaving a lot of money on the table.
It's actually worse, because some of the expenses associated with their oil industry are amortized capital costs. Look at just the cash flow, and it's more like $5 billion a month. This is solely on the oil side, and nothing else. This war is ruinous for them. Iranians are far from stupid. Someone there has to be adding it up.
I really like this piece and I’ve shared it in multiple places such as telegraph comments on articles from ignorant UK journalists. That being said at this exact point in time it seems Iran have outmanoeuvred Trump. This ceasefire benefits Iran and weakens US standing in the Middle East as their allies continue to be attacked. Currently, the main impact is to prevent Trump from delivering on his promise to destroy their infrastructure. This is the threat that brought them to the table but the negotiations at the table currently shows very limited benefits to the US. Their bases not being struck is not a big deal. There weren’t even troops in those bases. Trump wants an exit. Unlike the west’s idiot elite I do believe Trump has a strategy and that a successful delivery of that strategy would make him one of the greatest leaders the West has ever seen, but this is crunch time!