Zineb, you’re one of the very best writing on this conflict. Very solid analysis … Mike Doran and Lee Smith are your peers in terms of literate comment, insight and reasoned overview … just keep it up!
Which is breathtaking in its complete confidence. Let’s revisit it in a few weeks and see how well its predictions held.
The President was warned that if he attacked Iran, Iran would close the strait. He dismissed this concern airily. It won’t happen, and if it does the navy will take care of it. We all know what happened: the President has been pleading with Europe and China to reopen the strait, insulting them when they refuse. He had no plan, only heedless overconfidence.
This post says the US rescue of a downed aviator is evidence of complete military dominance. Left out is that Iran shot down the F-15 in the first place. The President had bragged a few days before that the US was utterly dominant in the Iranian skies. A few days later we could count over a billion in damage to other US planes in a brief window, including two A-10s and a very expensive AWAC.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Iran. But I do know this post is wildly one-sided in its optimism.
Put it another way: if things are going so well in Iran, why is the president rage-posting in the morning on Easter Sunday, frustrated beyond belief that Iran hasn’t given up yet?
Maybe against China and Europe, but other than being affected by reduced global economic activity the US will remain relatively self sufficient and unaffected.
Ultimately, closing the Straits was probably one of the first anticipated Iranian responses that was war-gamed by US military planners, so entirely predictable.
What surprises me is that the US has not yet taken Kharg Island to choke off Iranian oil exports, and leverage the Regime into opening the Straits.
"Iran’s model of power projection, energy coercion, and ideological subversion had been systematically depriving the Middle East of the economic integration and security cooperation that its geography and resources would otherwise permit. The war has not created that consensus. It has confirmed it." This basically says it all. Great brave post thank you for your honesty.
What an insightful article, yet another from Zineb Riboua's substack!
What is starting to surprise me is that so many articles are now framing this as a confrontation between the IRGC and the US+Israel+others. All the successful eliminations of senior figures are from the IRGC.
Where is Iran's regular army, the only counterweight to the IRGC internally in Iran? Have they become bystanders to the conflict? Are they biding their time to take over?
Zineb, you’re one of the very best writing on this conflict. Very solid analysis … Mike Doran and Lee Smith are your peers in terms of literate comment, insight and reasoned overview … just keep it up!
The Trump Administration doesn’t even have a strategy.
Except for the one laid out here in this very article.
Which is breathtaking in its complete confidence. Let’s revisit it in a few weeks and see how well its predictions held.
The President was warned that if he attacked Iran, Iran would close the strait. He dismissed this concern airily. It won’t happen, and if it does the navy will take care of it. We all know what happened: the President has been pleading with Europe and China to reopen the strait, insulting them when they refuse. He had no plan, only heedless overconfidence.
This post says the US rescue of a downed aviator is evidence of complete military dominance. Left out is that Iran shot down the F-15 in the first place. The President had bragged a few days before that the US was utterly dominant in the Iranian skies. A few days later we could count over a billion in damage to other US planes in a brief window, including two A-10s and a very expensive AWAC.
I don’t know what’s going to happen in Iran. But I do know this post is wildly one-sided in its optimism.
Put it another way: if things are going so well in Iran, why is the president rage-posting in the morning on Easter Sunday, frustrated beyond belief that Iran hasn’t given up yet?
China has no control over the strait
I didn’t say it does. I said Trump begged them to help open it - which he did. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-warns-nato-faces-very-bad-future-if-allies-fail-help-us-iran-ft-reports-2026-03-16/
You want that to be the case. But you're wrong.
It was a failed direct action mission to retrieve the enriched uranium. Full stop.
Wrong. Full stop.
The strait is closed—IRGC is winning
Sorry, winning against whom exactly?
Maybe against China and Europe, but other than being affected by reduced global economic activity the US will remain relatively self sufficient and unaffected.
Ultimately, closing the Straits was probably one of the first anticipated Iranian responses that was war-gamed by US military planners, so entirely predictable.
What surprises me is that the US has not yet taken Kharg Island to choke off Iranian oil exports, and leverage the Regime into opening the Straits.
Their navy is gone, their ballistic missile stockpiles gone, the IRGC leadership, gone.
The IRGC isn't winning, they're desperate.
Closing the strait hurts Europe and Asia. Not the US.
Time is running out for the IRGC
Spot on!
"Iran’s model of power projection, energy coercion, and ideological subversion had been systematically depriving the Middle East of the economic integration and security cooperation that its geography and resources would otherwise permit. The war has not created that consensus. It has confirmed it." This basically says it all. Great brave post thank you for your honesty.
What an insightful article, yet another from Zineb Riboua's substack!
What is starting to surprise me is that so many articles are now framing this as a confrontation between the IRGC and the US+Israel+others. All the successful eliminations of senior figures are from the IRGC.
Where is Iran's regular army, the only counterweight to the IRGC internally in Iran? Have they become bystanders to the conflict? Are they biding their time to take over?
Are you high?