Ms Riboua is clearly over the target, for she is taking flack. Moreover, it would seem she has drawn the anxious attention of the PRC, as the wumaos are piling into this combox.
Great point. Most reporting indicates Iran still possesses a substantial number of offensive weapons, which are likely their most sophisticated. And the western press is not reporting the current status of the war. Articles in English language UAE newspapers report that Iran attached two UAE oil facilities yesterday. Iran still possesses a number of small military boats that have been firing at tankers. And even if Trump followed through with essentially destroying Iranian key infrastructure, you’ll still have IRGC elements that could attack the bridge of tankers with small smart drones that are being built in the millions worldwide. Many of the IRGC members are hardcore Shias, who believe martyrdom and the end of times are desired outcomes. They are not going to give up no matter who leads Iran. I think this is going to degenerate into another Afghanistan-like situation. While it may be technically possible to protect tankers through the strait, it is not going to be cheap, easy, or risk free.
Ms Zineb Riboua analysis is being cited on Japanese News Paper World Times as this :
“Some suggest that the Trump administration's military operation against Iran is intended to break this vicious cycle. Zinev Libua, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, wrote in an essay, "A year spent by the U.S. dealing with Iran is equivalent to a year in which China expands its influence in the Pacific. The Trump administration has decided that the cost of this is no longer worth paying." She suggests that the intention is to redirect resources to the Indo-Pacific by eliminating the Iranian threat.”
"The US campaign dismantled the arsenal that Chinese industrial networks spent years building.
China had emerged as the principal external supplier of Iran’s ballistic missile program, providing chemical precursors for solid rocket fuel as well as satellite intel and navigation systems."
Sorry, this was not a huge investment on Chinese side - providing chemicals and access to some ISR and allowing some more advanced navigational tool through North Korea - considering the Chinese industrial complex is negligable investment - but allowed Iran to attack US ports and bases - which is critical for US as there are no proxy forces nearby.
China had massive logistics etc investment but the Military was actually quite limited - same from Russian side...
Well they are not the pinnacle of Chinese arsenal either - their role was not to decimate the US CBGs but to create credible threat - which is exactly the logic of area denial game, which Iranian forces are pursuing
The only terrain they are denying is the contested ground they stand on , they don’t have their own skies, they don’t have their own ground as Israeli operatives are running around all over it, we fly over at will and raid to rescue pilots freely.
They contest the straits with empty threats for the most part and are fractured internally, their funding cut off including their reserves on tankers and their allies discard them, their proxies Ring of Fire annihilated.
Every tactic and gambit failed and they seem to fear their own people enough to slaughter 30,000~ in January over a tax revolt.
Area denial? What area?
We don’t want it.
Iran thought it was the Cold War and they could play 80s games, they failed.
See the link below, but also you can apply the logic on Naval matters - how close a US CBG can approach the Hormuz Straits - that is area denial, also if they attack very remote US or allied bases like in Cyprus well then as an attritional war logic they force their will on the advisory (even without successful attacks - even try is enough - called credible threat) as they will need to keep there AD, AEGIS ships and air force - you know what is the cost of a US Virginia to station in the eastern Med for a month? Not having nearby bases and airports will result in using Tomahawk barrages from SSNs - which is way more expensive than using SAHEDs or Su-22m3 with GPS gliding bombs...it is still more expensive if the su22 is not returning from the mission...as those 40 yr old planes are fully amortised Simple cost equation...
The "beauty" of these wars that at the end we will exactly know who was triumphant. At this point confirming the US victory would be like denying the proxy logic of these wars - like Ukraine is winning as Russia has diminished strategic depth compared to the European Union - which is true - but there are blocks and Russia can rely on China and North Korean Military Industry base - just to ensure that it is sustained on a Tesco - read pareto - efficient level.
I’m not so sure. The postponement of the war, and the arrest of civilian authority centralized power with the hardliners. I’m very skeptical, as the blockade continues.
With Vahidi, we wound up with the grownups who could parley and get consensus — arrested; and a genuine mean hardass IRGC loyalist, a Saddam Hussein, driving the bus. There may be no way to open the strait using war power. Trump flinched today. Why? The rest of the world is running out of oil, and they will get those tankers moving somehow.
China is trying to avoid a war with the US. At this point, it shouldn't, it will win, whether anything of the Mather Earth remains is an open question. But China has the means and the resolve to defeat the US militarily. They can defeat economically tomorrow, but why murder your best customer, a malign drunk, drinking the Chinese products and paying full price?
Ms Riboua is clearly over the target, for she is taking flack. Moreover, it would seem she has drawn the anxious attention of the PRC, as the wumaos are piling into this combox.
This statement doesn't seem to match the reality - "Operation Epic Fury destroyed the military capacity Iran has used to threaten to close the strait"
Great point. Most reporting indicates Iran still possesses a substantial number of offensive weapons, which are likely their most sophisticated. And the western press is not reporting the current status of the war. Articles in English language UAE newspapers report that Iran attached two UAE oil facilities yesterday. Iran still possesses a number of small military boats that have been firing at tankers. And even if Trump followed through with essentially destroying Iranian key infrastructure, you’ll still have IRGC elements that could attack the bridge of tankers with small smart drones that are being built in the millions worldwide. Many of the IRGC members are hardcore Shias, who believe martyrdom and the end of times are desired outcomes. They are not going to give up no matter who leads Iran. I think this is going to degenerate into another Afghanistan-like situation. While it may be technically possible to protect tankers through the strait, it is not going to be cheap, easy, or risk free.
A great observer you are! Thank you.
Why is he calling MBS? Will the Iranians not take his calls anymore?
Iranians aren’t taking any calls because 2 mins after they do, there’s a missile knocking down the front door.
To get it into the press readout.
If things are this rosey, why is Hormuz still closed?
Its not, they’re hedging on insurance and the just in case minesweeping.
Meanwhile 🇺🇸 oil and LNG sales and contracts doing great 😚🎶 💰
Ms Zineb Riboua analysis is being cited on Japanese News Paper World Times as this :
“Some suggest that the Trump administration's military operation against Iran is intended to break this vicious cycle. Zinev Libua, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute, wrote in an essay, "A year spent by the U.S. dealing with Iran is equivalent to a year in which China expands its influence in the Pacific. The Trump administration has decided that the cost of this is no longer worth paying." She suggests that the intention is to redirect resources to the Indo-Pacific by eliminating the Iranian threat.”
【連載】イラン戦争と変わりゆく世界（３）米、「逆封鎖」で対中圧力 - 世界日報DIGITAL https://share.google/tK66OljTxo9IkJmjy
Whole the article can be read also in English using Google Translator.
Lots of China propaganda in these comments. I agree. The writer must be over the target.
Looks like you and President Trump are both doing the final finishing work. Great job.
Yes, concur Zineb, things are tracking nicely. Much cleaner than anyone could have imagined! Excellent piece, thank you for your honesty.
"The US campaign dismantled the arsenal that Chinese industrial networks spent years building.
China had emerged as the principal external supplier of Iran’s ballistic missile program, providing chemical precursors for solid rocket fuel as well as satellite intel and navigation systems."
Sorry, this was not a huge investment on Chinese side - providing chemicals and access to some ISR and allowing some more advanced navigational tool through North Korea - considering the Chinese industrial complex is negligable investment - but allowed Iran to attack US ports and bases - which is critical for US as there are no proxy forces nearby.
China had massive logistics etc investment but the Military was actually quite limited - same from Russian side...
CM-302 missiles - which failed in combat- aren’t precursor chemicals.
Well they are not the pinnacle of Chinese arsenal either - their role was not to decimate the US CBGs but to create credible threat - which is exactly the logic of area denial game, which Iranian forces are pursuing
The Iranian’s have lost.
The only terrain they are denying is the contested ground they stand on , they don’t have their own skies, they don’t have their own ground as Israeli operatives are running around all over it, we fly over at will and raid to rescue pilots freely.
They contest the straits with empty threats for the most part and are fractured internally, their funding cut off including their reserves on tankers and their allies discard them, their proxies Ring of Fire annihilated.
Every tactic and gambit failed and they seem to fear their own people enough to slaughter 30,000~ in January over a tax revolt.
Area denial? What area?
We don’t want it.
Iran thought it was the Cold War and they could play 80s games, they failed.
You do not need to be so defensive ;-)
See the link below, but also you can apply the logic on Naval matters - how close a US CBG can approach the Hormuz Straits - that is area denial, also if they attack very remote US or allied bases like in Cyprus well then as an attritional war logic they force their will on the advisory (even without successful attacks - even try is enough - called credible threat) as they will need to keep there AD, AEGIS ships and air force - you know what is the cost of a US Virginia to station in the eastern Med for a month? Not having nearby bases and airports will result in using Tomahawk barrages from SSNs - which is way more expensive than using SAHEDs or Su-22m3 with GPS gliding bombs...it is still more expensive if the su22 is not returning from the mission...as those 40 yr old planes are fully amortised Simple cost equation...
https://warontherocks.com/irans-asymmetric-counterair-campaign-attacking-the-u-s-air-forces-nests-and-eggs/
Not defensive, analytical.
Iran has lost. As for the appeal to the operating costs… denied.
The "beauty" of these wars that at the end we will exactly know who was triumphant. At this point confirming the US victory would be like denying the proxy logic of these wars - like Ukraine is winning as Russia has diminished strategic depth compared to the European Union - which is true - but there are blocks and Russia can rely on China and North Korean Military Industry base - just to ensure that it is sustained on a Tesco - read pareto - efficient level.
The U.S. has not shown it can open the Strait. They’ve shown that they can close it but not that they can open it.
Why should we open for the world’s freeloaders? We don’t need the oil.
This all sounds a bit hopeful…
China embodies T. Rooseveldt's "walk softly..."
very cohesive coherent argument. Thank you.
I’m not so sure. The postponement of the war, and the arrest of civilian authority centralized power with the hardliners. I’m very skeptical, as the blockade continues.
With Vahidi, we wound up with the grownups who could parley and get consensus — arrested; and a genuine mean hardass IRGC loyalist, a Saddam Hussein, driving the bus. There may be no way to open the strait using war power. Trump flinched today. Why? The rest of the world is running out of oil, and they will get those tankers moving somehow.
China is trying to avoid a war with the US. At this point, it shouldn't, it will win, whether anything of the Mather Earth remains is an open question. But China has the means and the resolve to defeat the US militarily. They can defeat economically tomorrow, but why murder your best customer, a malign drunk, drinking the Chinese products and paying full price?
So what makes you think that? When last did China fight a war against someone other than their own people? Those muscles are not in fighting shape