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Doug Ross's avatar

Zineb, great work (as usual). FYI - Trump has the option of disabling Iran's electric grid for a few weeks, not months, to close the deal.

How to black out Tehran for 30 days

https://directorblue.substack.com/p/how-to-black-out-tehran-for-30-days

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

Yes... Tearing down the electrical network... A war crime per definition of the International Courts.

What an option you're moving forward in order to support a point of view on which I disagree totally

ymg's avatar

Hilarious. Now tell me about Iranian cluster bombs. LOL.

Absent double standards you Western poseurs would have no standards. It's increasingly pathetic.

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

Iranian cluster bombs... What about https://imeu.org/resources/key-issues/quick-facts-israels-illegal-use-of-cluster-bombs/460 ?

Now using cluster bombs is not acceptable but that does not justify destroying electrical infrastructures.

As for crime against humanity, a simple AI query states that:

Crimes Against Humanity: If the destruction is part of a "widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population". This includes "inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health".

War Crimes: Specifically through "intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects" or "destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict".

Starvation of Civilians: IHL prohibits attacking, destroying, or rendering useless "objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population". Electricity is often critical for water supplies, heating, and healthcare.

And probably more expert than Les Vitailles...

Doug Ross's avatar

With all due respect, Jean-Marc - Iran has committed countless war crimes since 1979. I've documented their Hall of Shame here.

Iran's Top 20 Attacks On The West

It's long past time to stop suicidal mystics with nukes.

https://directorblue.substack.com/p/irans-top-20-attacks-on-the-west?utm_source=publication-search

Les Vitailles's avatar

"Tearing down the electrical network... A war crime per definition of the International Courts"

Are you a big expert on this? Which specific provision of which treaty prohibits this? Which international court has ruled on this, what is the exact date and ruling?

Were the Allied bombings of German railroads, bridges, powerplants violations of international law too?

Or is it rather that infrastructure that serves dual civilian and military purposes is a legitimate military target according to Article 51 of the Geneva Conventions?

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

As for crime against humanity, a simple AI query states that:

Crimes Against Humanity: If the destruction is part of a "widespread or systematic attack directed against any civilian population". This includes "inhumane acts of a similar character intentionally causing great suffering, or serious injury to body or to mental or physical health".

War Crimes: Specifically through "intentionally directing attacks against civilian objects" or "destroying or seizing the property of an adversary unless such destruction or seizure be imperatively demanded by the necessities of the conflict".

Starvation of Civilians: IHL prohibits attacking, destroying, or rendering useless "objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population". Electricity is often critical for water supplies, heating, and healthcare.

So pls check a little before posting any nonsense...

Les Vitailles's avatar

In other words, items of dual civilian and military use, like railroads, powerplants and bridges are indeed legitimate military targets as specified by Article 51 of the Geneva Conventions

Article 51:

"considered as indiscriminate:

5(b) an attack ... which would be excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated"

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/ihl-treaties/api-1977/article-51

You will be astonished that AI is not an authoritative legal ruling 😆

“Going to war without the French is like going deer hunting without an accordion”

General Norman Schwartzkopf

Dvoralai's avatar

surely unless the US actively supports (by arming resistance and/or working with Pavlavi), or israel is there to take out IRGC/Basij and their Arab militant collaborators in the street, Iranians would be committing mass suicide - and many have no doubt that the regime - even in its current weakened state - would be willing to massacre civilians in the hundreds of thousands.

I can understand that Iran’s status in the region is much degraded - it now has all the Gulf States thinking of it as an existential threat to them too.

But for the sake of the Iranian people, the majority of whom want the Islamic regime gone, let’s not pretend there’s “regime change”.

Pablo's avatar

5 tons of copium detected.

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

Sorry but I totally disagree with this analysis... Seems to be much more an "academic demonstration" than something related to daily facts... For example Step 1 should be followed by step 2 and then step 3...

Now the leaders have crushed any opposition and believing that people making further demonstrations in the streets will convince their leaders to step down...

I believe that, at this time, the only thing that matters - for the population - is to survive bombs, find some food, survive for the next day...

Les Vitailles's avatar

Two other indications of the regime's weakness are the abandoned Basij checkpoints (after persistent drone attacks on them) and the inability to enforce the hijab on Iranian women.

This last can be seen in everyday images from Iranian cities, for example from Reuters or AP, as well as the regime propaganda video below. Only 4 years ago Basij murdered Mahsa Amini for not covering her hair properly.

That's how scared the Islamic Republic is of its own population.

https://x.com/JZarif/status/2035300681960013935/mediaViewer?currentTweet=2035300681960013935&currentTweetUser=JZarif

Len Layton's avatar

Complete horseshit.

A Saint's avatar

The fact that they have to bring in 12 years old to militia check points as well as their proxies from Iraq and Afghanistan is also another testament to their wild unpopularity and lack of support among their own population. The daily executions show that the regime is not even trying to garner goodwill from its own people. This is a regime that is finished, it’s just a matter of time for complete dissolution.

Jean-Marc Pelletier's avatar

... bring in 12 years old to... Where is any credible evidence to this allegation? A lot of fog of war going on but let's base our discussion on proven and reliable facts...