Riboua's Near East Newsletter #5

U.S. naval power and the Houthi challenge

Richelieu sur la digue de La Rochelle, 1881, by Henri-Paul Motte 

In The Influence of Sea Power upon History, 1660–1783, Alfred Thayer Mahan famously stated, "Whoever rules the waves rules the world." This highlights the undeniable importance of naval power in historically shaping hegemonic influence and global dominance. The United States, which historically capitalized on the decline of European imperial navies and excelled in building and adopting advanced warships, now faces a crisis not only in maintaining but also in sustaining its naval supremacy.

A CBS News report identified three main reasons behind this:

1- Labor shortages: A significant shortage of skilled labor has led to backlogs in ship production and maintenance, compounding the Navy's difficulties as global threats continue to expand.

2- Shifting defense priorities: Frequent changes in defense strategies have left the U.S. trailing behind China in ship numbers, with the gap steadily widening. Shipyard consolidation and uncertain funding have further hindered long-term planning.

3- Flawed construction strategies: To cut costs and save time, the Navy opted for a ship design already used by France and Italy, intending to modify only 15% to meet U.S. specifications. This approach has introduced unforeseen issues, undermining efficiency and effectiveness.

The real concern isn’t just that the U.S. is falling behind in building ships and in preserving its sea power—its ability to recover through reforms is well-known. The alarming part is that America’s enemies are exploiting its failure to secure critical maritime routes like the Red Sea. In other words, every moment lost deepens the strategic disadvantage. China is, in fact, not only building warships at a rapid pace but, more critically, positioning itself within maritime routes traditionally dominated by the U.S., the Red Sea being the most obvious one.

In National Review, I wrote specifically about how China, Iran, and Russia are exploiting the U.S.' failure to develop a strategy to remove the Houthis from the Red Sea—and how the future administration can effectively counter this growing threat to U.S. naval posture:

More than a year after the October 7 attacks, the Houthi threat has not diminished. In fact, it is evident that the Houthis have transitioned from a Yemen-focused militant group to an organized military force with regional ambitions, strengthened by disruptive military support from Iran and financial backing indirectly facilitated by China. By purchasing 90 percent of Iran’s oil through illicit channels, China has effectively enabled Iran to fund the Houthis.

The terror group has become a significant threat to maritime security and global trade. And there are indications that it’s expanding its influence into Somalia, where U.S. intelligence reports suggest the Houthis have been in talks to provide weapons to al-Shabaab. Despite the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian, the redesignation of the Houthis on the Foreign Terrorist Organizations list, and spending $4.86 billion on countering their activities, the U.S. has struggled to curtail Houthi influence.

As Israel secures military gains in Gaza and Lebanon — including the dismemberment of Hezbollah’s network and the elimination of key figures such as Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, along with Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar — the United States should capitalize on the opportunity to further weaken Iran’s proxies, most notably the Houthis.

The shift in the balance of power in the Middle East, now tilted in Israel’s favor, presents Washington with a unique chance to confront the Yemeni terror group, whose actions have destabilized the Red Sea, harmed U.S. allies in the region, and paved the way for Russia, China, and Iran to assert dominance in these strategic waters.

Undeniably, Washington’s current approach falls short of the mark. Despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s January warning that the Houthis would “face consequences” if they continued targeting U.S. ships, Houthi leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi persisted in orchestrating attacks, citing the conflict in Gaza as the primary reason. Instead of outlining a strategy to weaken the Houthis and confront Iran, the chief enabler of their destabilizing actions, Secretary Blinken appeared to yield to the Houthis’ demands, saying that “the best chance to tackle the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and to address regional stability” lay in a cease-fire deal in Gaza.

Secretary Blinken should have taken a broader geostrategic view of the Red Sea, recognizing that the Houthis’ main objective, regardless of the pretext they choose to exploit, has been to erode U.S. influence in key choke points. As an Iranian proxy whose slogan explicitly states “Death to America,” the Houthis would have found any rationale to further their aims.

By emphasizing the need for a cease-fire deal, Secretary Blinken inadvertently reinforced the Houthis’ narrative. The threat has only grown as Iran has facilitated covert negotiations between Russia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels for Moscow to supply the terror group with anti-ship missiles. And reports suggest that Viktor Bout, the infamous Russian arms dealer known as the “Merchant of Death,” has been involved in arranging the sale of light automatic weapons worth around $10 million to support the Houthis’ malign operations.

Russia and China have, in fact, long regarded the Red Sea as a strategically important region, each seeking to establish a foothold that could rival U.S. influence. Beijing has made significant investments in regional maritime infrastructure, notably through projects in Port Sudan, the expansion of its military and industrial presence in Djibouti, and potential port and naval investments in Eritrea. Russia, meanwhile, has capitalized on Sudan’s political instability to negotiate the establishment of a Red Sea base in the war-torn country with approximately 300 Russian troops, reinforcing its military presence in the area.

Iran’s cultivation of the Houthis has provided Russia and China with an ideal vehicle for advancing their interests. The Houthis offer a double advantage: As a proxy reliant on Iranian military support, they remain highly malleable, and their strategic control of northwestern Yemen might potentially grant them access to a crucial coastline on which several U.S. allies in the region depend.

Their disruptive activities have inflicted an estimated $2.1 billion loss on maritime trade, forcing shipping routes to divert and increasing costs for global commerce. While Chinese and Russian vessels have occasionally been targeted, it is primarily the ships of U.S. allies and partners that have borne the brunt of these impacts. According to a report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, most of the affected countries — 65 in total — are U.S. allies or partners. This context explains why, when White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan requests China’s intervention with Iran to restrain Houthi attacks, the plea largely goes unheeded.

Nonetheless, Israel’s recent actions against Iran and its proxy network have revealed some of their vulnerabilities. The Trump administration should respond by transitioning from a defensive stance to a more assertive, proactive strategy toward the Iranian-backed Yemeni group. Especially since, as Brian Hook, former special envoy for Iran, has articulated, “President Trump understands that the chief driver of instability in today’s Middle East is the Iranian regime.”

Israel’s sabotage operations, targeted strikes, and assassinations of key figures within Iran’s network have significantly undermined the Islamic Republic’s credibility as a sponsor. The Trump administration could, first, cement these efforts by carrying out military strikes not only against Houthi targets but also against the Yemeni division of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has been instrumental in providing political and military support to the Houthis.

Second, given the Houthis’ reliance on Iranian missiles and drones, Washington could consider aligning with Israel by conducting precision air strikes on high-value targets such as Iran’s drone-production facilities. Such an operation would not only disrupt critical supply chains to the Houthis but also limit Russia’s access to Iranian drones, which have been deployed in the war against Ukraine. Notably, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency reported in February that “since 2017, Iran has proliferated advanced UAVs to global conflict zones.” The longer Washington delays addressing this issue, the more Iran will continue to undermine the U.S. as a naval and commercial power.

Third, stricter enforcement of sanctions on Chinese–Iranian economic collaboration will be essential to drying up the financial resources of both the IRGC and the Houthis. In the first quarter of 2024, Iran’s petroleum exports reached record levels, driven mainly by Beijing’s continued purchases. It has been reported by the Congressional Research Service that the trend has persisted because China deems the economic benefits of importing Iranian oil to outweigh the risks of potential U.S. sanctions. However, if the Trump administration adopts a more aggressive policy of enforcing sanctions and significantly expands designations — particularly targeting China-based entities — the U.S. could dramatically shift this calculation and undermine the financial benefits of such collaboration. It is for this reason that members of Congress have urged the Biden administration to enforce sanctions.

Finally, since power abhors a vacuum, the Trump administration should support the Houthis’ opposition, the Internationally Recognized Government in Yemen, which has been mired for years in a skewed U.N.-led peace process. Strengthening the legitimate government will be essential in helping Yemenis reclaim their country from the Iran-backed militia. In fact, contrary to common belief, the Houthis are not popular in Yemen. According to a recent rapid survey conducted by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, only 8 percent of Yemeni respondents held a positive view of the Houthis.

Israel’s military accomplishments have created invaluable opportunities for the U.S. to restore deterrence in the Middle East. It’s time to seize them. America’s standing as a dominant naval power is on the line.

Building ships faster alone won't cut it this time.

The U.S. urgently needs a comprehensive military industrialization plan as part of a decisive strategy to maintain its influence and project power.

China, Russia, and Iran are lurking at every corner, seizing every chance to undermine U.S. dominance and tip the global balance in their favor. The stakes have never been higher.