Riboua's Near East Newsletter #2
Riboua's Near East Newsletter #2
Sabotage operations, Hezbollah, Israel's multi-front war
Israel is conducting one of the most advanced and sophisticated sabotage operations in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy. Tehran is facing a dilemma. Hezbollah’s capabilities are being degraded.
But first things first, some thoughts on the current state of affairs:
a) Israel’s northern border has been under immense pressure since the October 7 attacks, as Hezbollah is actively working to weaken Israel’s military posture. For the Israelis, the security of the northern border is a serious matter, not only because more than 60,000 Israelis have been displaced, but also because any indication that Hezbollah is winning would encourage other Iranian proxies to join in attacking Israel.
b) Iran's primary political goal is the preservation of the Islamic Republic regime, which it believes can only be achieved by acquiring nuclear weapons. In my view, despite accumulating multiple embarrassing defeats (such as the assassination of Haniyeh and a botched April attack), Tehran sees the war in Gaza, the debate surrounding U.S. support for Israel, and the Red Sea crisis as convenient distractions and low-cost operations to drive the U.S. out of the Middle East.
c) Russia is often an underestimated factor in Middle East issues despite having naval access to Syria and Sudan today. I suspect that Russia is looking to benefit from the Red Sea crisis. It has not armed the Houthis, thanks to Saudi mediation efforts. However, it will likely find a way to advance its agenda since, from the Kremlin’s perspective, anything that weakens the Americans, whether in Africa or the Middle East, de facto weakens NATO.
Focus on Israel’s sabotage operations:
“Wireless devices held by members of Hezbollah exploded across Lebanon on Wednesday afternoon, local officials said, killing 14 people and wounding more than 450 others. The apparently coordinated attack came as the country reeled from a similar operation the day before that blew up thousands of pagers belonging to the armed group’s members.” – The New York Times
What we know so far is that Israel has launched two waves of attacks against Hezbollah operatives by targeting their communications devices to detonate. It was not just pagers but also smartphones, walkie-talkies, and even solar panels, according to Open Source Intel reports.
The extent of the total secrecy, infiltration, and coordination required for these operations is gargantuan. It is impressive that Israel was able to successfully carry them out despite intense international pressure and deep internal divisions.
I suspect that, similar to the assassination of Haniyeh inside his highly secured guesthouse in Tehran, the direct and most tangible impact of these operations is the destabilization and demoralization of Iran and its proxies. To shake an adversary, make him tremble at the thought of causing harm, make him rethink every single step he takes, and make him paranoid are, in fact, important psycho-military gains.
I disagree with those who say that this is unprecedented. I believe Israel mastered the art of sabotage very early, especially when it comes to dealing with Iran. It has attacked several of Iran's secret atomic weapons workshops and military research sites since 2010. What is original in this sabotage operation is Israel’s military strategy itself, which consists of operating within Iran’s framework by deceiving its proxies and setting them up for failure.
Most sabotage tactics are used to buy time or deprive the enemy of critical infrastructure, especially during WWII. They do not necessarily dissuade an enemy from advancing their agenda. What Israel is doing, however, is immensely ambitious, as its goal seems to be inflicting maximum costs through sabotage tactics to make Hezbollah abandon its military objective.
More importantly, the Iran of today is different from that of the early 2010s. It has not only amassed significant disruptive military capabilities, but it also has an extensive network of proxies it can rely on, making military force planning difficult. From afar, Iran looks like a Kraken, but what Israel is demonstrating is that it is possible to weaken it by:
Short-circuiting its proxy network by sabotaging its tactical communication system;
Creating an unbearable, paranoid work environment, as they cannot possibly identify all of the "invisible threats."
We do not know if a third wave of attacks will happen, how Hezbollah will respond, or what the Ayatollahs are now planning. What we do know, however, is that they no longer enjoy the luxury of only thinking twice.
Let’s not forget:
“There is another type of warfare— new in its intensity, ancient in its origin—war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of by combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It preys on unrest.”
— U.S. Army Special Forces Unconventional Warfare Training Manual November 2010
Thank you for reading and for your support.