Riboua's Near East Newsletter #1

KICKOFF - September 11, 2024

Dear readers,

Beyond the Ideological is a newsletter in which you have mainly read my short translations, essays, and blog posts on technology and culture since I was a student at Georgetown University. However, as many of you know, I specialize in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and North Africa at the Hudson Institute and have an immense interest in U.S. strategy vis-à-vis China, Russia, and Iran.

I would like today to introduce my “Riboua’s Near East Newsletter” where you will also receive some of my recent interventions, explainers, and sometimes predictions regarding international affairs and geopolitical trends.

Instead of mainly posting them on my X account @zriboua, a long-format medium where I can expose and share my personal opinions and occasionally analyses in depth would be beneficial.

Additionally, I strongly believe that everything is connected, both in space and time. Any subject, be it history, anthropology, sociology, literature, or philosophy, can help us gain a better understanding of human nature and make us more astute observers of diverse strategic cultures and geostrategic conquests.

The world only changes because humans do.

A perilous period of multipolarity is upon us. It is evident from Washington, D.C. that the geopolitical tectonic plates are moving, that the U.S.-led global order is being contested, and without a knowledge of the causes and origins, it will be impossible to deal with the challenges these shifts will pose.

It is with these questions and concerns in mind that I have hosted at the Hudson Institute a virtual event on the geopolitical implications of the crisis between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia with Foundation for Defense of Democracies Research Analyst, Mariam Wahba, and my dear colleagues, Hudson’s Senior Fellow Joshua Meservey, and Research Fellow James Barnett.

The goal was to have an honest conversation regarding the origins of the conflict, and how instability in the Horn of Africa will impact American policy in the broader region.

Since 2021, I have been keeping a careful eye on Russia's activities in Africa, namely in the Sahel region as it influences power dynamics in the Middle East. I recently spoke on BBC World Service Radio about the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Africa and clarified which parties are involved in the instability in Mali.

Contrary to common belief, the Sahelian desert is today a fertile land for Wagner mercenaries to plant and pursue their enterprises. As the war continues, the effects expand, and naturally, there is an immense possibility that the Sahel will become part of a new front in the Russia-Ukraine war.

But Wagner mercenaries’ success was not only due to their determination to conquer the Sahel, it was also the outcome of their particularly sophisticated disinformation campaigns via Telegram.

While many focused on Freedom of Speech matters related to the arrestation of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France, I have highlighted in my interview with ABC News Australia how Telegram played an important role in promoting anti-French and anti-Western sentiment in Africa, which posed a direct threat to French national security interests.

Of course, Russia is not the only one trying to reshape the U.S.-led global security architecture. Iran has taken advantage of every single opportunity to reassert itself by employing subversive tactics inside Western countries.

In my intervention as a panelist at an event hosted by my esteemed colleague Nate Sibley, Fellow and Director of the Kleptocracy Initiative at the Hudson Institute, I have reiterated that the Islamic Republic of Iran is doing whatever it can to distract NATO countries from the military collaboration it has established with Russia, and most importantly, divert attention away from its nuclear ambitions.

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