Im astounded at the apparent willful ignorance of the mass media in the US and their relentless focus on how Tump is losing to the Iranians with zero recognition of the China focus. It's as if they're all worried about their ratings in China.
Whenever China is mentioned, a crowd of angry people suddenly emerges—a phenomenon that I, as a native Chinese person, find quite intriguing. Who exactly are you people?🤣🤣🤣
You are a voice of reason. I wait to read your articles because they cut through the mainstream media gaslighting and highlight their dereliction of duty to report what is happening and not what they want you to believe is happening.
Once again, you have written an exceptionally good article, thereby providing us with profound insight into the geopolitics of the Trump administration. My conclusion is as follows: your geopolitical analysis—that Xi Jinping used the Iranian sanctions evasion network as a training ground for a future attack on Taiwan—represents the prevailing strategic consensus. By systematically dismantling this maritime and financial network, Washington is conducting a unified operation that simultaneously weakens the immediate Iranian kinetic threat and preemptively paralyzes Beijing’s long-term financial evasion structure. The success or failure of Operation Economic Fury will undoubtedly determine the limits of global hegemonic stability and the effectiveness of American financial statesmanship for the remainder of the 21st century. Time will tell whether the US manages to turn the tide for the free West.
I would like to add one more thing. The arrival of Kevin Warsh as chair of the FED, and the resulting end to the unquestioning reliance of the EU on the dollar swap line from the FED to the ECB, will show whether the EU reverses its economically destructive course and enters into cooperation with the US or not.
Johan, so true. Great observation agree with you 100 %.
Doing swaps with EU and mostly London where this mainly is run from will be devastating to the Brits and EU. Our fed has been propping up this system since it started after the WW11. (Bad joke)
We in the US have to remember Europe never has really been our friend. Not really. France helped us in the revolutionary war to get at the English. And to prop up the armchair enlightenment elite parlor room intellectuals. They loved feeding the royalty and elites the revolutionary stuff, they ate it up not realizing until later this would be the thing that eats them up literally. Gullotined!
Look at WW11, I mean 2, who really fought with us the USA? England because they had to they were literally being overrun; France gone in a month and goes Vichy; Russia after Hitler screwed them; China to help fight the Japanese. Everyone else was neutral or against us. Neutral, out of it. Oh yes, their freedom fighters, they all became resistance freedom fighters right. We were really on our own. We tried to stay out of it but realized Hitler is kicking the crap out of these guys. They aren't even putting up a fight. I know our history books don't like to teach this uncomfortable truth but hey look it up. Our schools have been teaching nihilistic crap for decades, decades. The nothingness schools.
So again London (Bankers) and EU this is what they are afraid of and us freeing from London's bad control all these years. These manipulative bankers over there only understand two things - money and power. All they care about. I think your spot on Johan.
There is nothing ill-conceived or half arsed about how the US is conducting its campaign against the Iranian regime and against China, as described in this Substack essay! You might not like Trump's public demeanor and loose speech, but he is using the power of the presidency and of the US military to do what is needed to rein in both Iran and China.
Trouble is that everything the last seven US Presidents have done to appease Iran has only increased its military capability and given China a platform for influence in the Middle East.
FR: Maintenant, il nous reste à savoir lequel des deux pays, les États-Unis ou l’Iran, pourra le mieux absorber les conséquences économiques liées à la fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz. Étant donné que les États-Unis organisent des élections tous les deux ans, que ce soit l’élection présidentielle ou les élections de mi-mandat, et que les électeurs souffrent déjà de l’inflation et de la perte de leur pouvoir d’achat, il semble que les Gardiens de la révolution, qui peuvent réprimer violemment quiconque se plaint, auront bien plus de marge de manœuvre dans la durée. Cela serait d’autant plus vrai s’ils recevaient un soutien financier direct. Cependant, il semble que les ventes d’hydrocarbures soient la principale source de revenus de l’Iran, et la question d’un soutien financier direct à l’Iran n’est pas débattue dans les journaux télévisés. EN: What remains to be seen is which of the two countries, Iran or the United States, can better absorb the economic consequences of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC may have a far greater ability to withstand economic pain, given that it routinely resorts to violence and repression against its own people when anyone dares to complain. By contrast, the United States holds elections every two years, whether presidential or midterm elections, and the American public tends to react strongly when faced with inflation and the erosion of purchasing power. This dynamic would become even more significant if Tehran were to benefit directly from external financial support. However, it appears that Iran’s main source of revenue remains the sale of hydrocarbons, and the question of whether outside actors might provide direct financial support to keep the regime afloat is not currently being widely debated in the media.
"[...] IRGC’s core strategic intention, to hold the world’s most critical oil chokepoint as leverage over global markets and Washington itself, but Iran never got to pull that trigger."
What? The strait has been closed for 2 months, and parts of the global economy are already suffering tremendously. Give it another week and Europe and North America start to feel it too.
The stated objective of Operation Economic Fury is to coerce the IRGC into surrendering its nuclear program and abandoning its revolutionary ambitions across the region, an objective whose outcome remains uncertain.
"
seems to be at tension with what we have been reading in this blog for some time now, basically that the irgc was on the verge of collapse.
Uncertainty regarding the trajectory, IRGC might not surrender even though the state is collapsing. They might be forced to. Yes I maintain that I think Iran is simply not doing well.
Im astounded at the apparent willful ignorance of the mass media in the US and their relentless focus on how Tump is losing to the Iranians with zero recognition of the China focus. It's as if they're all worried about their ratings in China.
The US mass media should have the Nobel Prize of Stupidity!
Whenever China is mentioned, a crowd of angry people suddenly emerges—a phenomenon that I, as a native Chinese person, find quite intriguing. Who exactly are you people?🤣🤣🤣
Wumaos
You are a voice of reason. I wait to read your articles because they cut through the mainstream media gaslighting and highlight their dereliction of duty to report what is happening and not what they want you to believe is happening.
Once again, you have written an exceptionally good article, thereby providing us with profound insight into the geopolitics of the Trump administration. My conclusion is as follows: your geopolitical analysis—that Xi Jinping used the Iranian sanctions evasion network as a training ground for a future attack on Taiwan—represents the prevailing strategic consensus. By systematically dismantling this maritime and financial network, Washington is conducting a unified operation that simultaneously weakens the immediate Iranian kinetic threat and preemptively paralyzes Beijing’s long-term financial evasion structure. The success or failure of Operation Economic Fury will undoubtedly determine the limits of global hegemonic stability and the effectiveness of American financial statesmanship for the remainder of the 21st century. Time will tell whether the US manages to turn the tide for the free West.
I would like to add one more thing. The arrival of Kevin Warsh as chair of the FED, and the resulting end to the unquestioning reliance of the EU on the dollar swap line from the FED to the ECB, will show whether the EU reverses its economically destructive course and enters into cooperation with the US or not.
Johan, so true. Great observation agree with you 100 %.
Doing swaps with EU and mostly London where this mainly is run from will be devastating to the Brits and EU. Our fed has been propping up this system since it started after the WW11. (Bad joke)
We in the US have to remember Europe never has really been our friend. Not really. France helped us in the revolutionary war to get at the English. And to prop up the armchair enlightenment elite parlor room intellectuals. They loved feeding the royalty and elites the revolutionary stuff, they ate it up not realizing until later this would be the thing that eats them up literally. Gullotined!
Look at WW11, I mean 2, who really fought with us the USA? England because they had to they were literally being overrun; France gone in a month and goes Vichy; Russia after Hitler screwed them; China to help fight the Japanese. Everyone else was neutral or against us. Neutral, out of it. Oh yes, their freedom fighters, they all became resistance freedom fighters right. We were really on our own. We tried to stay out of it but realized Hitler is kicking the crap out of these guys. They aren't even putting up a fight. I know our history books don't like to teach this uncomfortable truth but hey look it up. Our schools have been teaching nihilistic crap for decades, decades. The nothingness schools.
So again London (Bankers) and EU this is what they are afraid of and us freeing from London's bad control all these years. These manipulative bankers over there only understand two things - money and power. All they care about. I think your spot on Johan.
Zineb, can you provide a link(s) to materials that describe and validate Iran's shadow banking network?
Excellent post. A careful explanation of what’s really happening on the economic side of the conflict.
Framing Iran as a “Chinese asset” is directionally right.
But it overstates the control.
China benefits from Iran.
It doesn’t control Iran.
What matters is not the relationship itself —
but whether it creates binding constraints:
– on energy flows
– on US allocation of attention
– on sanction evasion channels
Geopolitics isn’t decided by alignment.
It’s decided by who can impose constraints on the system.
Trouble is that everything the Trumpists do is an exemplar of Trump himself ...overblown, ill-conceived and half arsed!
There is nothing ill-conceived or half arsed about how the US is conducting its campaign against the Iranian regime and against China, as described in this Substack essay! You might not like Trump's public demeanor and loose speech, but he is using the power of the presidency and of the US military to do what is needed to rein in both Iran and China.
Trouble is that everything the last seven US Presidents have done to appease Iran has only increased its military capability and given China a platform for influence in the Middle East.
Is that what you want?
It's not trumpists destroying Iranian air defenses, ballistic missile stockpiles and their entire navy.
It's the US military 🇺🇸
Thank you for objective point of view 👍
have china's 'war games' against Taiwan lessened?
FR: Maintenant, il nous reste à savoir lequel des deux pays, les États-Unis ou l’Iran, pourra le mieux absorber les conséquences économiques liées à la fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz. Étant donné que les États-Unis organisent des élections tous les deux ans, que ce soit l’élection présidentielle ou les élections de mi-mandat, et que les électeurs souffrent déjà de l’inflation et de la perte de leur pouvoir d’achat, il semble que les Gardiens de la révolution, qui peuvent réprimer violemment quiconque se plaint, auront bien plus de marge de manœuvre dans la durée. Cela serait d’autant plus vrai s’ils recevaient un soutien financier direct. Cependant, il semble que les ventes d’hydrocarbures soient la principale source de revenus de l’Iran, et la question d’un soutien financier direct à l’Iran n’est pas débattue dans les journaux télévisés. EN: What remains to be seen is which of the two countries, Iran or the United States, can better absorb the economic consequences of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC may have a far greater ability to withstand economic pain, given that it routinely resorts to violence and repression against its own people when anyone dares to complain. By contrast, the United States holds elections every two years, whether presidential or midterm elections, and the American public tends to react strongly when faced with inflation and the erosion of purchasing power. This dynamic would become even more significant if Tehran were to benefit directly from external financial support. However, it appears that Iran’s main source of revenue remains the sale of hydrocarbons, and the question of whether outside actors might provide direct financial support to keep the regime afloat is not currently being widely debated in the media.
"[...] IRGC’s core strategic intention, to hold the world’s most critical oil chokepoint as leverage over global markets and Washington itself, but Iran never got to pull that trigger."
What? The strait has been closed for 2 months, and parts of the global economy are already suffering tremendously. Give it another week and Europe and North America start to feel it too.
America is a net oil exporter now. So North America will be fine.
Not saying they will run out of oil. But the people will feel it "at the pump." (and with some delay, in the supermarket)
Once again, a superb post! Please keep these coming.
Please consider reading a short personal story about the air strikes in Iran:
https://substack.com/@projectbaba1/note/p-196107180?r=2y2sri&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
this paragraph
"
The stated objective of Operation Economic Fury is to coerce the IRGC into surrendering its nuclear program and abandoning its revolutionary ambitions across the region, an objective whose outcome remains uncertain.
"
seems to be at tension with what we have been reading in this blog for some time now, basically that the irgc was on the verge of collapse.
Uncertainty regarding the trajectory, IRGC might not surrender even though the state is collapsing. They might be forced to. Yes I maintain that I think Iran is simply not doing well.