Morocco, Algeria and Europe desperately need to address the reality of a Sahel (and Africa below) INFESTED with Islamic terrorism and what the millions of escapees portend.
I don't doubt your analysis is accurate, and I find the conspiracy theories spreading online that this is some American or "Zionist" plot quite ridiculous.
I think, on the other hand, that analysts have been misled by the previous such crisis in Ceuta in 2021, which everyone agrees was engineered by the Moroccan government as a response to Spain treating the leader of the Polisario Front in its hospitals. Since the Moroccan government did this once, then people logically assume they must be doing it again.
Looking at the pictures and short clips of the newly arriving immigrants from Morocco surprised me. They had no, nothing with them. Empty hands and not fearful and scared as usually illegal immigrants often look like. As you rightly said, Morocco is not poor and desperate. These immigrants arrived for a group photo shoot. The main objective was to punish Spain..
This is a very interesting take on the extraordinary events of the last week, but my fear is that it will be drowned out by the facile view that (a) Morocco facilitated the incursion and (b) that it’s all about Morocco’s dispute with Spain over Western Morocco. (See today’s Telegraph, for instance). If you’re correct about the broader Islamist threat, I think you’ve got your work cut out getting the Europeans to take this view seriously, which they should. I’m not knocking your excellent analysis, merely saying that what you say may not necessarily be received as an alternative narrative has already been established.
Many reasonable hypothesis in this article, but I don’t understand why it would be in the interest of the Islamic political parties to drive young people from Morocco? One would think their interests are best served by a kind of Islamic nationalism that encourages young people to stay?
I read the detailed article. You’re rejecting any ? Conspiracy? She’s describing in detail the Islamist, Moroccan government and Spanish policies. There’s certainly coordination happening, unless you are… implying.. it’s spontaneous. She’s Moroccan you know. Let’s try your just rejecting it, not lack of detail. It’s normal by the way to state a hypothesis then summon facts to support it. That’s not out of bounds.
Insightful and illuminating as always. The anti Israel pushers of conspiracy theories on the other hand have reached peak stupidity or malevolance on this issue.
I understand why Islamists insist that Morocco’s normalization with Israel is a shameful act. Politically, it helps them win votes, since a substantial segment of Moroccan society opposes the relationship. However, I don’t see how it would benefit them to portray Morocco as a failed state or Europe as an Eldorado to escape to. I also don’t recall Islamists consistently making that argument. After all, they seek to prevail within the existing political system, not destroy it. You don’t burn the castle you hope to live in.
Another point worth mentioning concerns the constraints Morocco faces in combating illegal migration. As you mentioned, there is the issue of limited resources, as well as the pressure exerted by NGOs, both of which restrict the government’s room for maneuver. But there is another important constraint.
Most irregular migrants transiting through Morocco come from the Sahel and, more broadly, West Africa. A heavy-handed crackdown targeting these populations would risk damaging Morocco’s image and undermining its relations with the very countries where it has invested considerable diplomatic, economic, and religious capital. West Africa is one of Morocco’s main geopolitical spheres of influence, and preserving goodwill there is a strategic priority. The royal pardon granted to the Senegalese supporters, despite widespread domestic opposition, says a great deal about this broader diplomatic calculus.
A Google search suggests that Morocco has, in fact, requested sovereignty over Ceuta. That it has taken it to the UN. TBF, I don't think it refutes your main points, but anyone wishing to refute you could pick up on this.
"Boundary and Territory Briefing - Ceuta and the Spanish Sovereign Territories - G.O'Reilly Durham University 1994"
Quotes:
"Both Morocco and Spain claim sovereignty over the five Territories of Ceuta, Melilla,
Penon de Vélez de la Gomera, Penon de Alhucémas and the Chafarinas Islands "
"Morocco argues that the: UN principles of decolonization must be applied;"
"Morocco claims that the Plazas were historically an integral part of the Islamic state."
"Concerning the UN, in 1961, Morocco requested that the UN General Assembly recognize its rights over "towns and islands in the north" occupied by Spain. In 1975, the Moroccan authorities sent a memorandum to the UN addressed to the "Chairman of the Decolonization Committee in reference to Ceuta, Melilla and the Chafarinas Islands". It stressed that the five Plazas were among "the last vestiges of colonial occupation", and that there was a need for the restoration of Morocco's "territorial integrity". "
A fine and illuminating piece of writing.
Morocco, Algeria and Europe desperately need to address the reality of a Sahel (and Africa below) INFESTED with Islamic terrorism and what the millions of escapees portend.
Did you read? They are but Europe is undermining these governments and embracing Islam. Morocco isn’t the problem, Spain is…
Amazing piece!
I don't doubt your analysis is accurate, and I find the conspiracy theories spreading online that this is some American or "Zionist" plot quite ridiculous.
I think, on the other hand, that analysts have been misled by the previous such crisis in Ceuta in 2021, which everyone agrees was engineered by the Moroccan government as a response to Spain treating the leader of the Polisario Front in its hospitals. Since the Moroccan government did this once, then people logically assume they must be doing it again.
This is the piece I knew I wanted to see after reading the recent headlines.
Excellent as usual.
Ahhh Morocco. I have a fondness for Morocco; they were the first country to recognize US independence in 1777. Marrrakesh, awesome place.
Good info thank you.
Looking at the pictures and short clips of the newly arriving immigrants from Morocco surprised me. They had no, nothing with them. Empty hands and not fearful and scared as usually illegal immigrants often look like. As you rightly said, Morocco is not poor and desperate. These immigrants arrived for a group photo shoot. The main objective was to punish Spain..
Thank you very much. Powerful piece as always.
The illegal immigrants coming over the channel from France to England don't look fearful and scared either.
This is brilliant. I’d been so confused. I now have context for this whole thing. Many thanks.
This is a very interesting take on the extraordinary events of the last week, but my fear is that it will be drowned out by the facile view that (a) Morocco facilitated the incursion and (b) that it’s all about Morocco’s dispute with Spain over Western Morocco. (See today’s Telegraph, for instance). If you’re correct about the broader Islamist threat, I think you’ve got your work cut out getting the Europeans to take this view seriously, which they should. I’m not knocking your excellent analysis, merely saying that what you say may not necessarily be received as an alternative narrative has already been established.
Europeans aren’t serious, they can’t take anything seriously.
Many reasonable hypothesis in this article, but I don’t understand why it would be in the interest of the Islamic political parties to drive young people from Morocco? One would think their interests are best served by a kind of Islamic nationalism that encourages young people to stay?
She explained in detail .
To me it wasn’t a convincing argument. It read to me like she started with a hypothesis and then looked for facts to back it up.
It was a horrible situation but I don’t believe there was an organized conspiracy.
I read the detailed article. You’re rejecting any ? Conspiracy? She’s describing in detail the Islamist, Moroccan government and Spanish policies. There’s certainly coordination happening, unless you are… implying.. it’s spontaneous. She’s Moroccan you know. Let’s try your just rejecting it, not lack of detail. It’s normal by the way to state a hypothesis then summon facts to support it. That’s not out of bounds.
I'm pretty sure we won’t agree on this. I think@Orient Express wrote a response that does a pretty good job of refuting Ribouas’ position.
Here’s the TLDR: Progressive leftists seek to replace indigenous populations with ones that will keep them in power.
Insightful and illuminating as always. The anti Israel pushers of conspiracy theories on the other hand have reached peak stupidity or malevolance on this issue.
Interesting perspective - thank you.
If only the Islamists could be held to account somehow.
There seems to be no political will to do so…unless you’re talking about Iran vis-a-vis the US (and even that is not supported around the world).
I understand why Islamists insist that Morocco’s normalization with Israel is a shameful act. Politically, it helps them win votes, since a substantial segment of Moroccan society opposes the relationship. However, I don’t see how it would benefit them to portray Morocco as a failed state or Europe as an Eldorado to escape to. I also don’t recall Islamists consistently making that argument. After all, they seek to prevail within the existing political system, not destroy it. You don’t burn the castle you hope to live in.
Another point worth mentioning concerns the constraints Morocco faces in combating illegal migration. As you mentioned, there is the issue of limited resources, as well as the pressure exerted by NGOs, both of which restrict the government’s room for maneuver. But there is another important constraint.
Most irregular migrants transiting through Morocco come from the Sahel and, more broadly, West Africa. A heavy-handed crackdown targeting these populations would risk damaging Morocco’s image and undermining its relations with the very countries where it has invested considerable diplomatic, economic, and religious capital. West Africa is one of Morocco’s main geopolitical spheres of influence, and preserving goodwill there is a strategic priority. The royal pardon granted to the Senegalese supporters, despite widespread domestic opposition, says a great deal about this broader diplomatic calculus.
It’s not what you don’t see it’s what they do see and do.
A Google search suggests that Morocco has, in fact, requested sovereignty over Ceuta. That it has taken it to the UN. TBF, I don't think it refutes your main points, but anyone wishing to refute you could pick up on this.
"Boundary and Territory Briefing - Ceuta and the Spanish Sovereign Territories - G.O'Reilly Durham University 1994"
Quotes:
"Both Morocco and Spain claim sovereignty over the five Territories of Ceuta, Melilla,
Penon de Vélez de la Gomera, Penon de Alhucémas and the Chafarinas Islands "
"Morocco argues that the: UN principles of decolonization must be applied;"
"Morocco claims that the Plazas were historically an integral part of the Islamic state."
"Concerning the UN, in 1961, Morocco requested that the UN General Assembly recognize its rights over "towns and islands in the north" occupied by Spain. In 1975, the Moroccan authorities sent a memorandum to the UN addressed to the "Chairman of the Decolonization Committee in reference to Ceuta, Melilla and the Chafarinas Islands". It stressed that the five Plazas were among "the last vestiges of colonial occupation", and that there was a need for the restoration of Morocco's "territorial integrity". "